توزیع درآمد روستایی و اثرات آن بر مهاجرت‌های روستا شهری در ایران

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سید محمدرضا مهدویان ¹ , مرضیه اسفندیاری ²

1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گرایش منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه زابل، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

تاريخ الإرسال : 18 الأربعاء , ذو الحجة, 1442 تاريخ التأكيد : 08 الأحد , ذو القعدة, 1444 تاريخ الإصدار : 01 الجمعة , شوال, 1444

الکلمات المفتاحية: نظریه‌های مهاجرت, نابراری توزیع درآمد, گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته,

ملخص المقالة :

مقدمه و هدف: پژوهش حاضر ضمن بررسی نظریه­های مهاجرت روستا شهری، با به‌کارگیری رهیافت گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته و با استفاده از داده‌های استانی در فاصله سال‌های 1395-1385، اثرات توزیع درآمد روستایی بر مهاجرت را مورد بررسی قرار داده است. متغیرهای مورد استفاده در این مطالعه شامل ضریب جینی، نرخ باسوادی، تعداد خانه­های بهداشت، مقدار تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی و متغیر دامی (برای پرداخت نقدی یارانه‌ها) می­باشد. مواد و روش­ها: برای این منظور، از روش گشتاور تعمیم یافته استفاده گردید. برای بررسی وابستگی مقطعی از آزمون استقلال مقطعی پسران (CIPS) و جهت بررسی مانایی از آزمون CADF استفاده گردید. هم‌چنین، جهت بررسی هم انباشتگی، آزمون وسترلوند به کار گرفته شد. یافته­ها: یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد رابطه ضریب جینی و مهاجرت مثبت است، به طوری که با یک درصد افزایش در مقدار ضریب جینی، مهاجرت از روستا به شهر 46/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. هم‌چنین، متغیرهای سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، آموزش، سلامت در مناطق روستایی اثر کاهشی بر مقدار مهاجرت داشته­اند. به طوری که با افزایش یک درصدی در مقدار سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ باسوادی و تعداد خانه­های بهداشت، به ترتیب شاهد کاهش 13/0، 002/0 ، 05/0 درصدی در مقدار مهاجرت خواهیم بود. رابطه میان ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی و مهاجرت مثبت است و به ازای یک درصد افزایش در ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی، مقدار مهاجرت روستا شهری 15/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. بحث و نتیجه­گیری: به منظور بهبود توزیع درآمد مناطق روستایی، ایجاد ساختار مناسب برای مدیریت هماهنگ توسعه روستایی، بهبود شاخص­های توسعه روستایی، اولویت­بندی خدمات روستایی بر اساس شرایط منطقه­ای، حمایت از گسترش کشاورزی صنعتی و صنایع روستایی برای ایجاد مهاجرت معکوس (از شهر به روستا) ، باید در اولویت قرار گیرد.

المصادر:

1. Aghaei M, Ghanbari A, Agheli L, Sadeghi H, Investigating the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran’s Provinces Using Cointegration and Multivariate Panel Error Correction Model. J Economics and Modeling. 2012; 3(9): 148-185. (In Persian).


2. Ahmadi Shadmehri M, Ghaed E, Moradi M. The Influencing Factors of Income Inequality in Iran with Emphasis on the Role of Migration and Urbanization. Population Studies. 2019; 5(1): 127-147. (In Persian).


3. Abrishami H, Barkhordari, S, Ghobashi A. Investing of dynamic effect of immigration from rural to urban on income inequality: case study of rural regions in Iran. J Econometric Modelling. 2018; 3(3): 39-62. doi: 10.22075/jem.2019.16971.1261


4. Alibabaei Y, Jamshidiha G. Investigating the Factors Affecting the Return of Afghan Refugees on the Residents of Shohreh Golshahr Mashhad. Social Sciences. 2002; 20: 71-90. (In Persian).


5. Azmi A, Mirzaee, F, and Shamsi, R. Challenges and problems of the agricultural sector and its role in migration from rural to urban areas. Journal of Spatial Planning. 2013; 17(2): 55-70. (In Persian).


6. Amare M, Hohfeld L, Jitsuchon S, and Waibel H. Rural-urban migration and employment quality: A case study from Thailand. Asian Development Review. 2012; 29(1): 57.


7. Azkia M. Sociology of development and underdevelopment of the rural community in Iran: Information Publications. 1995. (In Persian).


8. Baniasadi M, Zare Mehrjouee M, Varmzyari K. Economic factors affecting rural migration in Iran. J Agricultural Economics Research. 2013; 5(17): 183-196. (In Persian).


9. Banterle A, Carraresi L. Competitive performance analysis and European Union trade: The case of the prepared swine meat sector Food Economics, Acta Agricult Scand C. 2007; 4: 159-172.


10. Baltagi B. Econometric analysis of panel data, John Wiley & Sons. 2008.


11. Busso M, Chauvin J P, Herrera N. Rural-urban migration at high urbanization levels. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2021; 103658.


12. Brasili A, Epifani P, Helg R. on the dynamics of trade patterns, DE ECONOMIST. 2000; 2: 233-157.


13. Bogue D J. A Migrant's-Eye View of the Costs and Benefits of Migration to a Metropolis. In Internal Migration. 1977; 167-182.‏


14. ‏Daneshvar Kakhaki M, Dehghanian GHotabadi S, Karimkoshte H, Golriz Ziaee Z. Effects of agricultural productivity increase on rural-urban migration in Iran. J Agricultural Science and Natural Resources. 2006; 13(4): 174-180. (In Persian).


15. De Haas H. Remittances, migration and social development. A conceptual review of the literature.‏


16. Enders W. Applied Econometric Time Series, by Walter. Technometrics. 2004; 46(2): 264-265.


17. Ghasemi Ardahaei A. Causes of Rural-Urban Migration in Iran: a Meta Analysis of Theses (During 1980-2004). 2006; 9(1): 51-80. (In Persian).


18. Ghasemi Ardahaei A, Hosseini Rad A. Internal migration flows and characteristics of migrants into separate provinces. Statistical Research and Training Center. 2008.


19. Gini C. Measurement of inequality of incomes. The Economic Journal. 1921. 31(121): 124-126.


20. Greene W, H. The econometric approach to efficiency analysis. The measurement of productive efficiency and productivity growth. Oxford Academic. 2008; 1: 92-250.


21. Ha W, Yi J, Yun Y, Zhang J. The dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages: System GMM estimates from rural China. China Economic Review. 2016; 37: 27-39.


22. Harris J. R, Todaro M. P. Migration, unemployment and development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review. 1970; 60(1): 126-142.


23. Iqbal M, Baig A, Hyder M, Hasnain R, Nawaz N. Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors Effecting Migration Behavior in District Sargodha, Pakistan. International Journal of Asian Social Science. 2016; 6(12): 672-682.


24. Jalali M. An Estimation of Gini Coefficient in Iran. Iranian Journal of economic research. 2008; 12(36): 115-134. (In Persian).


25. Jalalian H. Mohammadi Yegane B. Analysis of effective geographical factors on rural migration of Zanjan County from 1976 to 1996. Geographical research. 2007. 39(61): 89-99. (In Persian).


26. Karbasi A, Fahimi M, Jahani H. Estimation of rural-urban migration in Iran (an auto-regressive distributed lag approach). Iranian Journal of Economic Research. 2011; 16(46): 97-113. (In Persian).


27. Katz E, O Stark. Labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries. Journal of labor Economics. 1986; Vol. 4(1): 134-149.


28. Khodamoradi H, Javid N, Danesh M, Vajagani E. Study of Internal Migration Flows and Comparison of the Properties of Non-Immigrant Immigrants in Iran (during 1385-1390). Statistical Research and Trainnig Center. 2013.


29. Lewis W. A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor. The Manchester schools. 1954; 22(2), 139-191.‏


30. Lee E. S. A. theory of migration. Demography. 1966; 3(1): 47-57.


31. Mirzamostafa M, Ghasemi P. Investigating Factors Affecting Interprovincial Migration by Using Gravity Models. Fiscal and Economic Policies. 2013; 1(3):71-96. (In Persian).


32. Mahdavian SM, Esfandiary M. Study of income distribution in rural areas of Iran. Development strategy. 2018; 53: 79-100. (In Persian).


33. Mears R. Rural‐Urban Migration or Urbanization in South Africa. South African Journal of Economics. 1977; Vol. 65(4): 275-283.


34. Naghdi A, Immigration and marginalization in Iran. Population. 2010; 17(74): 85-104. (In Persian).


35. Nadiri M, Mohammadi T. Investigating the Effect of Institutional Structures on Iran's Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Modeling. 2011; 3(15): 1-24. (In Persian).


36. Nejadabdolah M, Mohtashami G, Yaghobi M. Indicators of income distribution in Iran. Economic Journal. 2013; 13(9): 49-64.


37. Nguyen D. L, Grote U, Nguyen T. T. Migration, crop production and non-farm labor diversification in rural Vietnam. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2013; 63, 175-187.‏


38. Oberai A. S, Bilsborrow R. E. Theoretical perspectives on migration.‏ 1984.


39. Papli Yazdi M. Fadaei A. Khorasan rural migration, rural sample type Royin mountain valley. Geographical Researches. 1987; 2(3): 77-123. (In Persian).


40. Pedroni P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics. ;61(S1), 653-670.‏


41. Pesaran M. H. General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panel, CESifo. 2004. Working Paper, No. 1229, PP. 1-46.


42. Pesaran M. H. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. J applied econometrics. 2004; 22(2), 265-312.‏


43. Qi Z. Rural to urban migration, crime, and sentencing disparities in Guangdong, China. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice. 2020; 63, 100421.‏


44. Rabani R. (2002). Urban Sociology. Isfahan University and Samt Publications. 2002. (In Persian).


45. Rajabzadeh Moghani N, Salimifar M, Seyed Aghahosseini M. The impact of human capital investment on economic growth in the MENA countries, using the dynamic panel data estimated by GMM method. Research and Planning in Higher Education. 2015; 21(1): 1-19. (In Persian).


46. Ravenstein E. G. Census of the British Isles, Birthplaces and migration. Geographical Magazine. 1876; 3: 173-177.


47. Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London. 1885; 48(2): 167-235.


48. Ravenstein E. G. The laws of migration. J royal statistical society. 1889; 52(2): 241-305.


49. Ramezanian M. Aging population of Iranian agricultural sector (reasons and consequences). Agricultural Economics and Development. 2001; 9(36): 207-235. (In Persian).


50. Ranis G, Fei J. C. A theory of economic development. The American economic review. 1961; 533-565.


51. Sarvarzadeh K, Mohammadi H, Dehbashi V. Investigation on Economic, Social Effective Factors and Government Infrastructural Budgets on Rural Migration in Iran. Social Welfare. 2013; 13(48): 311-326. (In Persian).


52. Shafiee Kakhaki M. Migration, Income Inequality or Quality Improvement of life. Applied Economy. 2011; 2(1): 89-112. (In Persian).


53. Shokoei H. New perspectives on urban geography: Samt Publications. 1994. (In Persian).


54. Sjaastad L A. The costs and returns of human migration. Journal of political Economy. 1962. 70(5, Part 2): 80-93.


55. Statistical Center of Iran. Provincial Immigration (1375-85). Bureau of Population, labor and census. 2007.


56. Statistical Center of Iran. Domestic Immigration in the County Based on the Population and Housing Census, Deputy Strategic Planning and Control. 2014.


57. Statistical Center of Iran. Provincial Immigration (1375-85). Bureau of Population, labor and census. 2016.


58. Sepehrdoust H, Sharififakhr P, Barouti M. The Impact of Income Distribution and Agricultural Credit Facilities on Rural-Urban Migration. Journal of Research and Rural Planning. 2017; 6(3), 139-150. doi: 10.22067/jrrp. v6i3.61096


59. Taherkhani M. Identify factors affecting rural-urban migration with emphasis on Qazvin Province rural youth migration. Modarres Human Sciences. 2002; 6(2): 41-60. (In Persian).


60. Todaro M. P. Income expections, rural-urban migration and employment in Africa. Int'l Lab. Rev. 1971. 104: 387.


61. Westerlund J. New simple tests for panel cointegration. Econometric Reviews. 2005. 24(3), 297-316.‏


62. Wondimagegnhu B. A. Economic Impact of Rural-Urban Migration on Income and Poverty of Migrant Sending Rural Households: With Evidence from Southern Ethiopia, Ruhr University of Bochum. 2012.


63. Zanjani H. Migration: Samt Publications. 1994. (In Persian).


64. Zipf G. K. The hypothesis: on the intercity movement of persons. American sociological review. 1946. 11(6): 677-686.