اثر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بر قیمت مواد غذایی: رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

حمید بلالی ¹ (عضو هیئت علمی اقتصاد کشاورزی/ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا)
نادر مهرگان ² (همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- گروه اقتصاد)
اکبر باجلان ³ (همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- دانشکده کشاورزی)

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/11/24 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/05/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/11/01

کلید واژه: مواد غذایی, حامل‌های انرژی, شاخص قیمت‌ها, الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده(ARDL),

چکیده مقاله :

افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی با توجه به سهم آن‌ها در هزینه‌های تولید، بطور مستقیم شاخص بهای تولیدی بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد را متأثر ساخته و سطح رفاه جامعه را کاهش می دهد. بطوریکه روند افزایشی قیمت های جهانی حامل های انرژی و مواد غذایی در سال های اخیر، باعث علاقمندی اقتصاد دانان به بررسی ارتباط بین این دو متغیر شده است. همچنین ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، ECM(-1) در الگوی برآورد شده عدد 0.76- برآورد گردید، که نشان می-دهد در هر دوره (سال) 0.76 از عدم تعادل کوتاه‌مدت شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی به جهت رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می‌شود. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت با افزایش قیمت حامل های انرژی و به خاطر همسو شدن تولیدکننده با افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی و اثر سایر زیر بخش‌هایی که از این افزایش قیمت متأثر شده‌اند و بر مقدار تولید مؤثر هستند، قیمت مواد غذایی افزایش چشمگیری می یابد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Increasing the price of energy carriers, due to their contribution to production costs, directly affects the production price index of different sectors of the economy and reduces the welfare of the society. The rising trend of global prices for energy and food suppliers in recent years has made economists interested in examining the relationship between these two variables. In this study the effects of energy prices on the food price index was investigated by using of Atou-Regressive Distributed Lag model at the years of 1980- 2016. Also, the error correction term, ECM (-1) was estimated in the estimated model of 0.76, which indicates that in e The results showed that in the long run, with the rise in the price of energy carriers and because of the manufacturer's alignment with the rise in the price of energy carriers and the effect of other sub-sectors that have been affected by this rise in prices, and they affect the amount of production, the price of food increases dramatically.

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