اثر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بر قیمت مواد غذایی: رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیحمید بلالی 1 , نادر مهرگان 2 , اکبر باجلان 3
1 - عضو هیئت علمی اقتصاد کشاورزی/ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا
2 - همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- گروه اقتصاد
3 - همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- دانشکده کشاورزی
الکلمات المفتاحية: مواد غذایی, حامل‌های انرژی, شاخص قیمت‌ها, الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده(ARDL),
ملخص المقالة :
افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی با توجه به سهم آن‌ها در هزینه‌های تولید، بطور مستقیم شاخص بهای تولیدی بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد را متأثر ساخته و سطح رفاه جامعه را کاهش می دهد. بطوریکه روند افزایشی قیمت های جهانی حامل های انرژی و مواد غذایی در سال های اخیر، باعث علاقمندی اقتصاد دانان به بررسی ارتباط بین این دو متغیر شده است. همچنین ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، ECM(-1) در الگوی برآورد شده عدد 0.76- برآورد گردید، که نشان می-دهد در هر دوره (سال) 0.76 از عدم تعادل کوتاه‌مدت شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی به جهت رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می‌شود. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت با افزایش قیمت حامل های انرژی و به خاطر همسو شدن تولیدکننده با افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی و اثر سایر زیر بخش‌هایی که از این افزایش قیمت متأثر شده‌اند و بر مقدار تولید مؤثر هستند، قیمت مواد غذایی افزایش چشمگیری می یابد.
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