تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران: رهیافت NARDL

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

ابراهیم انواری ¹ (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.)
پرستو مرادی ² (دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/06/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/02/11 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/10/01

کلید واژه: ایران, ARDL نامتقارن, تقاضای گردشگری, متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی,

چکیده مقاله :

گردشگری به عنوان یک نیروی محرکه‌ی اقتصادی اثر فزاینده‌ای بر تولید ناخالص داخلی جهانی، اشتغال، کاهش فقر، کاهش تورم و غیره دارد و عملکرد هر کشور در جذب گردشگر به یکسری عوامل بستگی دارد که نقش مهمی در ثبات سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی آن کشور ایفا می‌کند. هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی اثرات نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1396-1375 است. تحقیق حاضر از لحاظ روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و جهت جمع‌آوری اطلاعات و داده‌ها از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و منابع داخلی (بانک مرکزی ایران) و منابع خارجی (بانک جهانی و شاخص‌های حاکمیت جهانی) استفاده شده است. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از رهیافت خودرگرسیو غیرخطی با وقفه‌های گسترده (NARDL) و نرم‌افزار Eviews استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج این تحقیق گازهای گلخانه‌ای دی اکسیدکربن در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تأثیر منفی بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. علاوه بر این، کیفیت نهادی تأثیر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزون بر این، افزایش قیمت نفت در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معنادار و کاهش قیمت نفت اثر منفی بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزایش و کاهش نرخ ارز در بلندمدت به ترتیب اثر منفی و اثر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزایش تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت و کاهش تورم نیز در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. همچنین یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از رابطه نامتقارن کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین قیمت نفت و نرخ ارز با تقاضای گردشگری و رابطه متقارن بین تورم و تقاضای گردشگری بوده است.
واژه‌های کلیدی: ARDL نامتقارن، تقاضای گردشگری، متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، ایران.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Tourism as an economic driving force has an increasing effect on global gross domestic product, employment, poverty reduction, inflation reduction and so on and performance of any country in attracting tourists depends on a number of factors that play an important role in the political, social and economic stability of that country. The main objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on tourism demand in Iran during 1996-2017. The present study has been used in terms of descriptive-analytical method and to collect information and data from library studies and internal sources (central bank of Iran) and external sources (World Bank and global governance indicators. To analyze the data nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) and eviews software have been used. According to the results of this research co2 emission in short run and long run have negative effect on tourism demand. Furthermore, institutional quality has positive effect on tourism demand. Moreover, increase in short run and long run have positive and significant effect and decrease oil prices negative effect on tourism demand. The Increase and decrease of the exchange rate in the long run has had a negative and a positive effect on tourism demand respectively. Increase inflation in short run and long run positive effect and decrease inflation also in short run and long run have been positive effect on tourism demand. Furthermore, the findings of the study also suggested short run and long run asymmetric relationship between oil prices and exchange rate with tourism demand and symmetric relationship between inflation and this.

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