تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران: رهیافت NARDL

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

ابراهیم انواری ¹ , پرستو مرادی ²

1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.
2 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

تاريخ الإرسال : 25 الأحد , محرم, 1442 تاريخ التأكيد : 19 السبت , رمضان, 1442 تاريخ الإصدار : 28 الخميس , جمادى الأولى, 1444

الکلمات المفتاحية: ایران, ARDL نامتقارن, تقاضای گردشگری, متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی,

ملخص المقالة :

گردشگری به عنوان یک نیروی محرکه‌ی اقتصادی اثر فزاینده‌ای بر تولید ناخالص داخلی جهانی، اشتغال، کاهش فقر، کاهش تورم و غیره دارد و عملکرد هر کشور در جذب گردشگر به یکسری عوامل بستگی دارد که نقش مهمی در ثبات سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی آن کشور ایفا می‌کند. هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی اثرات نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1396-1375 است. تحقیق حاضر از لحاظ روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و جهت جمع‌آوری اطلاعات و داده‌ها از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و منابع داخلی (بانک مرکزی ایران) و منابع خارجی (بانک جهانی و شاخص‌های حاکمیت جهانی) استفاده شده است. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از رهیافت خودرگرسیو غیرخطی با وقفه‌های گسترده (NARDL) و نرم‌افزار Eviews استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج این تحقیق گازهای گلخانه‌ای دی اکسیدکربن در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تأثیر منفی بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. علاوه بر این، کیفیت نهادی تأثیر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزون بر این، افزایش قیمت نفت در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معنادار و کاهش قیمت نفت اثر منفی بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزایش و کاهش نرخ ارز در بلندمدت به ترتیب اثر منفی و اثر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. افزایش تورم در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت و کاهش تورم نیز در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت بر تقاضای گردشگری داشته است. همچنین یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از رابطه نامتقارن کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین قیمت نفت و نرخ ارز با تقاضای گردشگری و رابطه متقارن بین تورم و تقاضای گردشگری بوده است.
واژه‌های کلیدی: ARDL نامتقارن، تقاضای گردشگری، متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، ایران.

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