تعیین مناسبترین شاخص برای خشکسالیهای مناطق بارشیِ ایران
محورهای موضوعی :
فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
علی وخشوری
1
,
زین العابدین جعفرپور
2
,
پرویز کردوانی
3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و اقلیمشناسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
3 - استاد گروه جغرافیا، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
تاریخ دریافت : 1394/02/30
تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/08/22
تاریخ انتشار : 1396/10/01
کلید واژه:
ایران,
خشکسالی اقلیمی,
مناطق بارشی,
ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن,
چکیده مقاله :
خشکسالیها از جمله مهمترین بلایای طبیعی هستند که به سه شکل اقلیمی، هیدرولوژی و کشاورزی دیده میشوند. با توجه به واقع شدن کشور ایران در قلمرو آب و هواهای خشک جهان و در نتیجه حساسیت زیاد کشور به این مسئله، ضرورت مطالعه و بررسی پیرامون مسائل مربوط به خشکسالی مهمتر و بیشتر جلوه مینماید. در همین راستا تحقیق حاضر خشکسالی اقلیمی را مد نظر قرار داده و کاربرد شاخصهای معتبر خشکسالی را بر روی مناطق مختلف کشور ارزیابی نموده است. بدین منظور کل پهنه ایران را به صورت مناطق شش گانه بارشی در نظر گرفته و از بین تمامی ایستگاههای موجود که دارای آمار هواشناسی کاملتر و معتبرتری نسبت به بقیه ایستگاهها بودند، انتخاب شدند. سپس از بین شاخصهای خشکسالی اقلیمی شش شاخص RAI,SIAP,PNPI,DI,Z و SPI را برگزیده و خشکسالی هر کدام از مناطق مختلف بارشی به وسیله این شاخصها تعیین گردید و نتایج را با ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن بین بارندگی و رتبه شاخصها با یکدیگر مقایسه نموده و مشخص شد که کدام شاخص برای چه منطقه بارشی بهتر عمل میکند؛ نهایتاً معلوم گردید که شاخص DI با دارا بودن بالاترین ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن مناسبترین شاخص برای کل پهنه جغرافیایی ایران است.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Droughts are the most important natural disasters. Droughts exist in 3 forms Climate, Hydrology and Agriculture. Due to the location of Iran in the realm of global dry climates and high sensitivity to this issue in country, it is necessary to study and investigate about the problems related to droughts. For this purpose, this presented research is considered the climate drought and evaluated the valid indicators of drought on the various regions of country. In this order, the whole area of Iran considered as six regions of rainfall and among all existing stations, the stations which have the more perfect and valid statistics of aerology rather than others were selected. Then among the climate drought indicators, six indicators Z, DI, PNPI, SIAP, RAI and SPI were selected and the drought of each various regions of rainfall were defined through these indicators and results was compared using Spearman's correlation coefficient between rainfall and indicators ranking and it was found that the best indicator for each region of rainfall; Finally it was found that the DI indicator has the highest Spearman's correlation coefficient and it will be the most appropriate indicator for whole area of Iran.
منابع و مأخذ:
Alijani, B. (2000): Iran's climate, Payame Noor University Press, Tehran, Iran.(In Persian)
Alizadeh, A. (2010): Principles of Applied Hydrology, Imam Reza University Press, Tehran,Iran.(In Persian)
Azar, A. (2003): Statistics and its Application in Management, Volume 1,Samt Publication, Tehran, Iran.(In Persian)
Azizi, G. (1996): Blocking and its Effects on Iranian Precipitation, Ph.D's Thesis in Natural Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University.(In Persian)
Bauer, I.H. and E. Farland, (2000):Temperature and Precipitation Variations in Norway during 1990-1994 and their links to atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 20, pp: 1693-1708
Farajzadeh,M. Movahed Danesh,A.A. Ghaemi,H. (1995): "Drought in Iran", Journal of Agricultural Science, No. 1 & 2, Tabriz, Pages 31-51.(In Persian)
Farajzadeh, M. (1995): Drought Statistic Survey in Iran, Ph.D's Thesis in Natural Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University.(In Persian)
Farajzadeh, M. (2005): A Drought from Concept to Strategy, Geographical Organization Publications of the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Support, Tehran,Iran.(In Persian)
Ghayour, H.A. Masoudian,A. (Summer 1997): "The magnitude, extent and frequency of droughts in Iran", Journal of Geographical Research, No. 45, Mashhad, pp. 25-39.(In Persian)
Ghayour, H.A. Khosravi,M. (2001): " The Impact of Enso on the Anomalies of Summer and Autumn Rainfall in the South East of Iran", Journal of Geographical Research, No. 62, Mashhad, pp. 141-174.(In Persian)
Gibbs, W. and V. Maher, (1967):Rainfall deficiency and drought indicators. Bulletin Bur meteorology Asustralia, 48, pp: 117-129
Hejazizadeh, Z. (1993): Investigating the fluctuations high pressure subtropical in the change of the Iranian season, Ph.D's Thesis in Natural Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University.(In Persian)
Hejazizadeh, Z. Javizadeh,S. (2010): Introduction to Drought and its Indices, Samt Publication, Tehran, Iran.(In Persian)
Kamali, G.A. Khazanedari,L. (spring and summer 2002): "Recent Mashhad Drought Analysis Using Some Drought Indicators", Journal of Nivar No. 44 & 45, Tehran, pp. 79-93.(In Persian)
Kardavani, P.(2001): The Drought and contrasting styles with that in iran, Tehran University Press, Tehran,Iran.(In Persian)
16.Khoshakhlagh, F. (1998): Investigating Iran's Common Droughts Using Synoptic Analysis, Ph.D's Thesis in Natural Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tabriz University.(In Persian)
.Lamb,P, (1982):Persistence of sub saharan drought climatology. Nature, 299, pp: 46-47
18.Miller, G.T, (1991):Environmental Sciences, Wordworth, Pub. Belmont, California. Monitoring the vernal advancements and retrogradation. (greenwave effect) of nature vegetation, (1973), pp: 371. NASA/GSFC Final Report.
Modarespour, A. (1994): Iran's climate anomalies and the phenomenon of ENSO, Master's thesis of natural geography, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University.(In Persian)
Movahed Danesh, A.A. (1994): Surface Water Hydrology of Iran, Samt Publication, Tehran, Iran.(In Persian)
Nazemsadat, M.J (summer 1998): "Investigation of the influence of surface temperature of Persian Gulf on the rainfall of southern Iran", Journal of Nivar No. 38, Tehran, pp. 33-46.(In Persian)
Pirmoradian, N. Shamsnia, A. Shahrokhia Nia, M.A. (Winter 2008): "Monitoring and analysis of spatial distribution of drought severity in 2000-2001 in Fars province using SPI rainfall indexes in GIS ", Journal Water Engineering, First Year, Pages 70-61.(In Persian)
Rahnamaei, M.T. (2010): Spatial Potentials of Iran, Danaei Tavani Publishing, Tehran, Iran.(In Persian)
Smith, K, (1994):Precipitation over Scotland, 1757-1992: some aspect of temporal variability. International Journal of Climatology, 14, pp: 543-556
Turkes, M, (1995):Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16, pp: 1056-1057.
_||_