اندازه‌گیری و تحلیل سطح توسعه کشاورزی ایران با به کارگیری شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

آیت اله کرمی ¹ (هیئت علمی دانشگاه یاسوج)
حمید رستگاری ² (دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه یاسوج)

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/02/09 تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/02/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1397/04/01

کلید واژه: ایران, توسعه کشاورزی, نگاشت خود سازمانده, شبکه عصبی پرسپترون,

چکیده مقاله :

به طور کلی نبود توسعه متوازن در بخش کشاورزی گریبان­گیر بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران می­باشد. از همین رو، بررسی زمینه­های عدم توازن و نابرابری توسعه این بخش اجتناب ناپذیر است. با مطالعه نقاط ضعف و قوت تک­تک استان­ها می­توان برنامه­ریزی متناسب را انجام داد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی میزان توسعه یافتگی کشاورزی استان­های کشور ایران بود. سؤال پژوهش این بود که سطح توسعه کشاورزی به تفکیک استان­های کشور ایران به چه میزان است؟ پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ ماهیت کاربردی و از منظر روش­شناسی در زمره پژوهش­های توصیفی- تحلیل قرار می­گیرد. شیوه جمع­آوری اطلاعات اسنادی و کتابخانه­ای و ابزارهای استاندارد شده در قالب فرم­ها و جداول رسمی نتایج سرشماری کشاورزی 1393 بود. جامعه آماری پژوهش نیز کل استان­های کشور ایران برابر با 31 استان بود. در ادامه 73 زیرشاخص در قالب 5 شاخص اصلی توسعه کشاورزی از نتایج سرشماری استخراج و پس از وزن­دهی شاخص­ها، با روش شبکه عصبی مصنوعی توسعه کشاورزی استان­ها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. محاسبات پژوهش با استفاده از نرم­افزارهای Excel وMATLABانجام شد.یافته­های سنجش سطح توسعه کشاورزی استان­ها نشان داد، استان­های اصفهان، تهران، مازندران به ترتیب رتبه‌های اول، دوم و سوم و استان­های خراسان جنوبی، سیستان و بلوچستان و بوشهر رتبه­های 29، 30 و 31 را به دست آوردند. گفتنی است که شاخص بهره برداری کشاورزی در دو خوشه­ی 2 و 3 و شاخص خدمات زیربنایی و سایر خدمات کشاورزی در خوشه 1 بیشترین اهمیت را به خود اختصاص دادند. با توجه به نتایج، نابرابری نسبی توسعه کشاورزی در بین استان­های مورد مطالعه وجود داشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

      In general, there is a lack of balanced development in the agricultural sector of many developing countries, including Iran. Therefore, the study of the areas of imbalances and inequalities in the development of this sector is inevitable. By studying the strengths and weaknesses of the provinces, a proper planning can be done. The purpose of this study was to identify the extent of agricultural development in the provinces of Iran. So, the research question was: What is the level of agricultural development in the provinces of Iran? The present study is descriptive-analytic in terms of applied and methodological point of view. The method of collecting information was documentary, library, and standardized tools in the form of formal tables and official results of Agricultural Census results. The statistical population of the study was all provinces of Iran (N=31). Then, 73 sub-indicators in the form of five main agricultural development indicators were extracted from the census and after weighing the indices, the artificial neural network was used to study the agricultural development of the provinces. The calculations were done using Excel and MATLAB software. The results showed that Esfahan, Tehran and Mazandaran ranked first to third respectively and Southern Khorasan, Sistan & Baluchistan and Bushehr ranked last in terms of agricultural development. It is necessary to mention that “exploitation agriculture index” in clusters 2 and 3 and “infrastructure services and other agricultural services index” in cluster 1, most importance were accounted.

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