فراگيري مالي و رشد اقتصادی؛ تحليل بين كشوري

محورهای موضوعی : توسعه اقتصادی، نوآوری، نغییرات تکنولوژیکی و رشد اقتصادی

اکرم قریشوندی ابراک ¹ , صالح قویدل ² , مسعود صوفی مجیدپور ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران، [e-mail]
2 - دانشیار اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)، [e-mail]
3 - استادیار اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/05/10 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/03/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/03/12

کلید واژه: فراگيري مالي , رشد اقتصادی, کشورهای با درآمد بالا, کوانتایل, محیط کلان,

چکیده مقاله :

فراگيري مالي از محرک‌های اصلی رشد اقتصادی است .هدف این مقاله ارزیابی اثر فراگيري مالي بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای با درآمد بالا (59 کشور) در دوره 2021-2004 با استفاده از روش پنل دیتاست. در این مطالعه فراگيري مالي از سه بعد نفوذ بانکی، در دسترس بودن خدمات بانکی و استفاده از خدمات مالی اندازه‌گیری می‌شود. این ابعاد نتایج بهتری برای درک رابطه فراگيري مالی - رشد اقتصادی ارائه می‌دهد. بر حسب سنجه‌های فراگيري، تفاوت معناداری در میان کشورها وجود دارد. با وجود این از نظر محیط کلان اقتصادی از شرایط مطلوب برخوردارند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد همگرایی اندک در میان کشورها وجود دارد. همچنین، برخی ابعاد فراگيري مالي بر رشد اقتصادی اثر مثبت دارند. در این راستا، ضریب نفوذ دسترسی به بانک و تسهیلات پیامد مثبت دارند. ولی ضریب نفوذ دستگاه خودپرداز و تعمیق مالی اثر منفی داشته‌اند. محیط کلان اقتصادی (سرمایه، نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، باز بودن اقتصاد) چشم‌انداز مثبت زندگی (امید به زندگی) و روند جمعیتی (نرخ رشد جمعیت) از عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی این کشورها هستند. بهره¬برداری از ابزارهای جدید بانکداری مانند اینترنت بانک و همراه بانک برای گسترش فراگيري مالي به-ویژه در مناطق کم برخوردار، ارائه خدمات متنوع از طریق شعب، گسترش بانکداری خرد، بهره‌برداری از اپلیکشن‌های ساده و متناسب با توانمندی‌های مردم نقش کانونی در توسعه و تعمیق فراگيري مالي به همراه رشد اقتصادی خواهند داشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Financial inclusion is a key driver of economic growth. This study evaluates its effect on economic growth in 59 high-income countries from 2004 to 2021, using panel data and quantile methods. Financial inclusion is measured through banking penetration, availability of banking services, and usage of financial services. The results reveal significant differences among countries, generally enjoying favorable macroeconomic conditions, and indicate slight convergence among them. Positive impacts on economic growth were observed from bank and facility penetration, while ATM penetration and financial deepening showed negative effects. Influential factors include capital, inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic openness, life expectancy, and population growth. The impact of financial inclusion is more pronounced in lower-income countries. Expanding financial inclusion through the Internet and mobile banking, especially in less privileged areas, and enhancing microfinance and user-friendly applications, are pivotal for economic growth.

منابع و مأخذ:

- - بالونژادنوری, روزبه و شجری, شقایق (1400). بررسی رابطه علیت میان رشد اقتصادی و فراگيري مالي : کاربردی از روش علیت بوت‌استرپ، فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد، 8(4)، 252-225.
- رضازاده, علی, مریدیان, علی، هواس بیگی, فاطمه (1402). تاثیر شمول مالي بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منطقه منا با تاکید بر نقش اقتصاد سایه، پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، 14(53)، 76-53.

- Afonso, A., & Blanco Arana, C. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: A study for OECD countries in the context of crisis. REM Working Paper, 46-2018.
- Akinrinola, O. O., & Folorunso, O. (2022). Evaluation of the nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth in Nigeria (1980-2020). European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, 10(7), 1–16.
- Ali, S., Yusop, Z., Kaliappan, S. R., Chin, L., & Nazar, R. (2021a). Impact of Aniruddh, S., & Kumar, R. (2021). A cross country study of financial inclusion and economic development with special emphasis on India. Indian Journal of Economics and Development, 17(1), 11–24.
- Anand S., Kodan K., and Kuldip S. C. (2012). A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis of Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth. Management and Labour Studies 2:103-133.
- Arvidsson, N. (2019). The future of cash in Sweden. In Building a cashless society (pp. 75–84). Cham: Springer.
- Balounejad Nouri, R., & Shajari, S. (2022). Investigating the causality between economic growth and financial inclusion: An application of bootstrap panel granger causality test. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 8(4), 225-252. doi: 10.22034/ecoj.2022.49311.2985(in Persian)
- Barajas, A., Chami, R., & Seyed Reza, Y. (2016). The finance and growth nexus re-examined: Do all countries benefit equally? Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, 1(5), 5–38.
- Bayar, Y., & Gavriletea, M. (2018). Financial inclusion and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies of European Union. Journal of International finance and Economics, 18(2), 95–100.
- Beck T., Demirguc-Kunt A., and Peria M S M. (2007). Reaching out: Access to and use of banking services across countries. Journal of Financial Economics, 85, 234-266.
- Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Levine, R., (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of Economic Growth 12, 27–49.
- Bjork, G., C. (1999). The way it worked and why it won’t: structural change and the slowdown of US economic growth. Greenwood Publishing Group.
- Chen, Y., & Sivakumar, V. (2021). Investigation of finance industry on risk awareness model and digital economic growth. Annals of Operations Research, 30(2), 1–22.
- Dahlman, C., Mealy, S., & Wermelinger, M. (2016). Harnessing the digital economy for developing countries. OECD Development Centre Working Papers, 334.
- Donou-Adonsou, F., & Sylwester, K. (2016). Financial development and poverty reduction in developing countries: New evidence from banks and microfinance institutions. Review of Development Finance, 6(1), 82–90.
- Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial Econometrics: From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Emara, N., Zhang, X., & Liu, S. (2019). Economic growth and financial stability in MENA countries: Does exporting oil matter? MPRA Paper no.99312.
- Galor, O., Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies, 60, 35-52.
- Honohan P. (2004). Financial Development, Growth and Poverty: How close are the links? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3203:1-31.
- Huang, R., Kale, S., Paramati, S. R., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2021). Thenexus between financial inclusion and economic development: Comparison of old and new EU member countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 1–15.
- Kim, D. W., & Yu, J. S. (2018).Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 1-14.
- Kim, D. W., Yu, J. S., & Hassan, M. K. (2018). Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 1–14.
- Kim, D.W., Yu, J.S., Hassan, M.K. (2018). Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 1–14.
- Kim, J. H. (2016). A study on the effect of financial inclusion on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(2), 498–512.
- King, R.G., Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
- Kremer, S., Bick, A., Nautz, D. (2013). Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44 (2), 861–878.
- Mankiw, N. G. (2012). Principles of Macroeconomics. South-western Cengage Learning, 157-158.
- Mankiw, N.G., 2012. Principle of Macroeconomics. South-Western Cengage Learning.
- Mishra S., & Nathan H. S. (2014). Measuring HDI – The Old, the New and the Elegant: Implications for Multidimensional Development and Social Inclusiveness. ASIA Research Center Working Paper, 63.
- Mitchell, K., Scott, R.H. (2019). Public revenue, financial inclusion and value-added tax in Argentina. In: Pesos or plastic? pp. 33–58.
- Mohan, R. (2006). Economic growth, financial deepening and financial inclusion. Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, 130(6), 70–80.
- Molyneux, J. M., & Matheson, H. S. (2022). Financial role of insurance on economic development in Denmark. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(1), 1–9.
- Moran, P. A. P. (1950). Note on Continuous Stochastic Phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1), 17-23.
- Myovella G., Karacukaa M., & Justus, H. (2020). Digitalization and economic growth: A comparative analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa and OECD economies. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 101586.
- Myrdal, G. (1957). Economic Theory of Underdeveloped Regions. London: Gerard Dicksworth
- Narain, K., Bhattu-Babajee, R., Gopy-Ramdhany, N., & Seetanah, B. (2022). Assessing the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth: A comparative analysis between lower middle-income countries and upper middle-income countries. Business and Management Review, 13(1), 69–84.
- Nguyen, P. T. (2022). The impact of banking sector development on economic growth: The case of Vietnam's transitional economy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(8), 22–40, 358.
- Nizam, R., Karim, A. Z., Rahman, A. A., Sarmidi, T. (2020). Financial inclusiveness and economic growth: new evidence using a threshold regression analysis. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraˇzivanja, 33 (1), 1465–1484.
- Ozili, P.K. (2020). Financial inclusion research around the world. A review. Forum for Social Economics 1–23.
- Patron, P., & Pekhalskii, D. I. (2021). Financial inclusion as a factor of economic growth in the United States and other developed countries. USA & Canada: Economics-Politics-Culture, 10(2), 22–42.
- Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., Nair, M., & Bennett, S. E. (2017). Venture capital investment, financial development, and economic growth: The case of european single market countries. Venture Capital, 19(4), 313–333.
- Qureshi, M. A., Qureshi, J. A., Ahmed, A., Qaiser, S., Ali, R., & Sharif, A. (2020). The dynamic relationship between technology innovation and human development in technologically advanced countries: Fresh insights from quantiles-on-quantile approach. Social Indicators Research, 152(2), 555–580.
- Rezazadeh, A., moridian, A., & havasbeigi, F. (2023). Financial inclusion and economic growth in MENA countries: the role of the shadow economy. Economic Growth and Development Research, 14(53), 53-76. doi: 10.30473/egdr.2023.67018.6677 (in Persian)
- Sahay, M. R., Cihak, M., NDiaye, M. P., Barajas, M. A., Mitra, M. S., Kyobe, M. A., & Yousefi, M. R. (2015). Financial inclusion: Can it meetmultiple macroeconomic goals? International Monetary Fund.
- Saleem, R., Nasreen, S., & Azam, S. (2022). Role of financial inclusion and export diversification in determining green growth: Evidence from SAARC economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 10(2), 1–14.
- Sarma, M. (2015). Measuring Financial Inclusion. Economics Bulletin, 35, 604-611.
- Sarma, M., & Pais J. (2011). Financial inclusion and development. Journal of Development, 23, 613-628.
- Sethi, D., & Acharya, D. (2018). Financial inclusion and economic growth linkage: Some cross country evidence. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 20(3), 50–65.
- Sethi, T., Acharya, A. (2018). Financial inclusion and economic growth linkage: some cross country evidence. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 10(3), 369–385.
- Sharma, D. (2016). Nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth: Evidence from the emerging Indian economy. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 30(2), 45–56.
- Sim, N., & Zhou, H. (2015). Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles. Journal of Banking & Finance, 55, 1–8.
- Shena, Y., Wenxiu, H., & Hueng, C. J. (2020). Digital financial inclusion and economic growth: A cross-country study international conference on identification, information and knowledge in the internet of things. Procedia Computer Science, 187 (2021), 218–223.
- Sukmana, R., & Ibrahim, M. H. (2018). Financial access and inequality: A quantile assessment. International Journal of Economics and Management, 12(2), 551–557.
- Sukmana, R., & Ibrahim, M.H. (2018). Financial access and inequality: A Quantile Assessment. International Journal of Economics and Management, 12, 551–557.
- UFA, Overview. (2020). Universal Financial Access by 2020. The World Bank.
- Usman, M., Makhdum, M. S. A., & Kousar, R. (2021). Does financial inclusion, renewable and non-renewable energy utilization accelerate ecological footprints and economic growth? Fresh evidence from 15 highest emitting countries. Sustainable Cities and Society, 65, Article 102590.
- Van, L.T.H., Vo, A.T., Nguyen, N.T., & Vo, D.H. (2019). Financial inclusion and economic growth: an international evidence. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 1–25.
- World Bank. (2018). Financial inclusion, global financial development report, Washington.
- Xiao, Z. (2009). Quantile cointegrating regression. Journal of Econometrics, 150(2), 248–260.
- Yorulmaz, R. (2018). An analysis of constructing global financial inclusion indices. Borsa Istanbul Review 18:248-258.
- Zelany, M. (1974). A concept of compromise solutions and the method of the displaced ideal. Computers and Operations Research, 1(4), 479– 496.