Providing a System Dynamic Model to Predict Construction Status in Iran Using Sustainable Development Indicators

محورهای موضوعی : Project Management

Morteza Golshanimanesh ¹ , Hamidreza Abbasianjahromi ² , Mohammad Ehsanifar ³ , S.Mohammad Mirhosseini ⁴

1 - Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 - Department of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
4 - Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/02/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/08/13 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/05/10

کلید واژه: System Dynamics, Sustainable Development, Construction, Causal Loops,

چکیده مقاله :

In this paper, a system dynamic model (SDM) has been created to predict the construction status in Iran using sustainable development indicators (SDI). The aim is to create a model based on system dynamics that would understand the complexities of the sustainable development system, as well as predict the values of variables and indicators used in the model for years to come. Since sustainable development involves various economic, social, and environmental aspects, the model has been formulated Using ten-year available data in these areas. After that, the output results of the model have been validated with reference patterns, and then, various scenarios have been created for sensitivity analysis. Finally, based on this model, the construction status in the Next years has become predictable. According to the results of this study, there is a direct and significant relationship between the amount of Construction and other indicators of sustainable development, such as the share of women working in the non-agricultural sector and the literacy rate of men aged 15-24.

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