List of Articles probit

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  1 - Prediction Stock Volatility and Probability Extreme Return
  felor ghorashi ghodratollah emamverdi Sayedeh Mahboubeh Jafari Ali Baghani Yadollah NouriFard
  This study examines the relationship between volatility and the probability of occurrence of expected extreme positive and negative returns in The thehran security market‌.‌‌ The purpose of this research is optimation portfolios via hold positive return and eleminate na More

  This study examines the relationship between volatility and the probability of occurrence of expected extreme positive and negative returns in The thehran security market‌.‌‌ The purpose of this research is optimation portfolios via hold positive return and eleminate nagative return‌.‌‌ Two measures of volatility and the factor of expected shortfall are examined‌:‌‌ conditional volatility calculated using an EGARCH model and idiosyncratic volatility based on the Fama and French five-factor model and expected shortfall calculate with smi-parametric metod‌.‌‌ This paper is based on regresion probit‌‌ model and data use from 1382 to 7/1397‌.‌‌ A significantly positive relationship is observed between a firm’s idiosyncratic volatility and the probability of occurrence of an extreme return‌.‌‌ Other firm characteristics, including firm price, volume and Book-to-Market ratio, are also shown to be significantly related to firm extreme returns‌.‌‌ The relationship Between the age factor and exterem return is not found relation‌.‌‌ The effects of conditional and‌‌ expected shortfall are mixed‌.‌‌ Manuscript profile
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  2 - Default Predicting of Facilities given to Enterprises: clients of non-bank depositary institutions
  Shadanloo Ameri Siahoee HAMIDREZA KORDLOUIE Seyed Mohammad Abdollahi Keyvani
  One of the most important risks of the banking system is the credit risk. Considering the portfolios of institutes and the mutual relationship of their items, any tension in refunding the overdone facilities can lead to essential problems such as liquidity risk, interes More

  One of the most important risks of the banking system is the credit risk. Considering the portfolios of institutes and the mutual relationship of their items, any tension in refunding the overdone facilities can lead to essential problems such as liquidity risk, interest rate, and even bankruptcy. In this way, finance and credit institutes look for models, achieving experience, and improving credit evaluation models they use to validate the credit of their credit customers. However, the list of the important variables for credit validation and selection of the more appropriate and effective model has been a crucial question for many of these institutes. The present study investigates the LOGIT, PROBIT, and Z Altman models, using a set of qualitative and quantitative variables of the legal customers of depository institutions. The findings prove that qualitative and financial variables of the legal customers for this institute proved to be explanatory for the credit risk probability at a high degree of confidence. These models successfully predicted credit risk for 80% of the facilities and LOGIT was more successful than other models. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Evaluation of Intelligent and Statistical Prediction Models for Overconfidence of Managers in the Iranian Capital Market Companies
  Shokoufeh Etebar Roya Darabi Mohsen Hamidiyan Seiyedeh Mahbobeh Jafari
  10.22034/amfa.2019.579662.1145
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  4 - Investigation Small Scale Coffee Producers' Market Choice Decision (Case study Debub Ari District, SNNPR, Ethiopia)
  Yidnekachew Alemayehu Mebratu Alemu
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  5 - Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Probit Models for Investigating the Adoption of High Yielding Wheat Varieties
  Anahita Nazari Gooran Vali Borimnejad
  The aim of this study, firstly, is to investigate and identify the factors leading to the adoption of high yielding wheat varieties grown by farmers. Secondly, it is to consider the impacts of neighborhood on farmers’ decisions about adoption of wheat varieties as More

  The aim of this study, firstly, is to investigate and identify the factors leading to the adoption of high yielding wheat varieties grown by farmers. Secondly, it is to consider the impacts of neighborhood on farmers’ decisions about adoption of wheat varieties as spatial data. For this purpose, Spatial Probit Discrete Choice model and Bayesian method will be used to estimate the model by using MATLAB software. The data are collected by 214 farmers in central part of Qazvin city via Simple Random Sampling. The results of the models estimated by using Bayesian method shows that adoption of high yielding wheat varieties are affected by variables such as rural production cooperatives, farming experience, age, quantity of wheat production and Spatial Autoregressive Coefficient. Manuscript profile
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  6 - Forecasting Future Trends of the Stock Market Using the Probit Regression Approach with Emphasis on Value at Risk
  Seyed Ali Mousavi Loleti Emran Mohammadi Saeed Shavvalpour
  Forecasting has always been recognized as an important issue in financial markets and is considered a unique factor in estimating future unknown values. The aim of this research is to identify and forecast the conditions of the Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE) and the factors More

  Forecasting has always been recognized as an important issue in financial markets and is considered a unique factor in estimating future unknown values. The aim of this research is to identify and forecast the conditions of the Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE) and the factors affecting them, focusing on the correlation between market prosperity and value at risk. To achieve this, in the first step of this study, the time series of the value at risk index on the capital market TSE was estimated using daily data and the first-order GARCH method from spring 2010 to June 2023. Then, the factors influencing prosperity in TSE were evaluated based on seasonal data from spring 2010 to June 2023 using the probit regression approach. In addition, value at risk index was calculated seasonally and the relationship between the probability of market prosperity and the value at risk index was examined using correlation coefficients.The research results show that the probability of market prosperity in the Iranian capital market has a significant negative relationship with the bank interest rate, liquidity growth and the occurrence of sanctions. There is also a significant positive relationship with the inflation rate and the growth of the exchange rate. Furthermore, the correlation analysis shows that market prosperity is directly related to equity value at risk. Assuming stable conditions, the research suggests that the probability of a prosperity market in the next three seasons is significantly higher than the occurrence of a recession. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Factors Affecting Groundnut Market Outlet Choice in Moisture Stress Area of Babile District, Eastern Ethiopia: Multivariate Probit Approach
  Jafer Ahmed Abdulaziz Umare Nasir Mahamed Oromia Galane Kebret Desse
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  8 - Sustainable Information Exchange and Market Access: Use of Mobile Phone in the Marketing of Food Crops by Farming Households in Rural South East Nigeria
  Agwu N. M. Obasi R. O. Oteh O. U Anuakpado P. A
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  9 - Shocks and Coping Strategies of Rural Households: Evidence from Ogo-Oluwa Local Government, Oyo State, Nigeria
  Seyi Olalekan Olawuyi Olapade-Ogunwole Fola Raufu Mufutau Oyedapo
  Rural households in Nigeria are vulnerable to shock because of their limited capacity to make informed decision on secured coping strategies which is further aggravated by some households’ specific socio-economic characteristics. Attempts were made to identify sho More

  Rural households in Nigeria are vulnerable to shock because of their limited capacity to make informed decision on secured coping strategies which is further aggravated by some households’ specific socio-economic characteristics. Attempts were made to identify shocks being faced by households’ heads and coping strategies. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 respondents and well structured questionnaire was used to collect data through in-depth interview. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics to describe households’ socio-economic variables; Probit analysis was also used to determine the relationship between personal socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, shocks and choice of coping actions. The results revealed that a large share of households experience multidimensional shocks, which are mainly associated to ecological but also suffer from other economic, demographic and social factors. Majority of households undertake coping actions in response to shocks; coping strategies employed but not limited to include borrowing, distress sales of assets, remittances, adjustment in food intake, drawing on savings. Educational status, household size, per capita income, shocks type, coping strategies, among others are found to significantly affect the choice of coping actions and are likely to have implications for households’ future welfare status. Manuscript profile
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  10 - Identification the Factors Affecting the Probability of Non- Repayment of Banks Credit Facilities
  Naser Ali Yadolahzadeh Tabari Erfan Memarian Atefeh Nasiri
  This study aims to identify the factors influencing credit risk and provide a model for real clients credit rating, the applicants of Mehr Imam Reza fund facilities in Babolsar, from 1388 to1391. In order to explain more, default probability of 15 explanatory, demogra More

  This study aims to identify the factors influencing credit risk and provide a model for real clients credit rating, the applicants of Mehr Imam Reza fund facilities in Babolsar, from 1388 to1391. In order to explain more, default probability of 15 explanatory, demographic (age, sex, education, …) and financial variables(the loan value of the collateral) were considered. The results indicate that the implementation status and gender variables have been the most important factors affecting the probability of non-repayment of loans. Of course the type of collateral, skill experience, financial status and the background of activities are effective as well in reducing the risk of non-repayment of loans Manuscript profile
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  11 - مدل سازی علل درونی معوق شدن تسهیلات قرض الحسنه به روش "حد آستانه" (مورد کاربرد : بانک قرض‌الحسنه رسالت)
  حسین میرزایی ابراهیم کریمی اصل
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  12 - برآورد ارزش‌های گردشگری و حفاظتی میدان نقش جهان اصفهان (کاربرد روش ارزش‌گذاری مشروط)
  مصطفی رجبی سیده نساء موسوی
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  13 - Portfolio Formation Using Diagonal Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Weighting Based on Posterior Probability
  Saeid Fallahpour H. Pirayesh Shirazinejad
  Stock return forecasting is one of the most important question for investing in Stock markets. Because of the effects of policy, economic, etc., we need moderns and intelligent models to forecast the returns. The main idea in this research is classifying the stocks int More

  Stock return forecasting is one of the most important question for investing in Stock markets. Because of the effects of policy, economic, etc., we need moderns and intelligent models to forecast the returns. The main idea in this research is classifying the stocks into high and low return groups, for this purpose support vector machine (SVM) was used. To elect the best variables for models we used sequential feature selection and in order to evaluate the accuracy of SVM we do the same forecasting with diagonal quadratic discriminant analysis (DQDA). By using paired t-test, we conclude that models have no significant difference. Equal weighted portfolios were created for each models with and without feature selection also, we used posterior probability to weight the portfolio of DQDA with feature selection. The returns were calculated for each portfolio during the years 1388-1391. The simulating results are satisfying and all portfolios’ returns are better than market portfolio. Manuscript profile
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  14 - Investigation of seedling emergence of bean and maize affected by sowing depth with using probit models
  Behnam Behtari Adel Dabbagh mohammadi nasab Kazem Ghassemi Golezani Mohammad reza Shakiba
  Seedling emergence probably is the single most important phenological event that influences the success of an annual plant. The main objective of this study was to develop a seedling emergence model for green bean and maize and select a best-fitted model associated with More

  Seedling emergence probably is the single most important phenological event that influences the success of an annual plant. The main objective of this study was to develop a seedling emergence model for green bean and maize and select a best-fitted model associated with sowing depth. A factorial experiment based on completely randomized design was conducted in 2015 at Research Farm of Mohaghegh Ardabili University, to quantify the response of seedling emergence to sowing depth. Treatments were four sowing depths (2, 4, 6 and 8 cm) in three replications. The results indicated that the percentage emergences of both species in the first two levels of sowing depth (2 and 4 cm) were high, but at deeper levels, seedling emergence were suffering a severe loss. Emergence indicators (MED, ERI, D50%) showed that seedling emergence of bean was greater than maize. For two species, an increase in pre-emergence mortality with increasing depth was observed. So that the highest germinated seeds mortality occurred at 8 cm depth. However, in probit fitted curves for each dataset, the rates of increasing between plants varied. The rate of emergence varied between plants and based on values of statistical criteria, because of less parameters number in linear probit model, it was showed suitable to fit model. Therefore, these models may provide a better basis for broad practical application in crop management. Manuscript profile
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  15 - Economic evaluation of Cultural Heritage Tourism, Case of Abbas: Mosque in Isfahan
  M. Rajabi N. Mousavi
  Abbasi Mosque was registered on the 15th of Daymah 1310 (1931) in the national index. The mosque is one of the architectural masterpieces, Kashy‌Kary and carvings in the eleventh century AH (the Safavid era) is a historical mosque and one of the country's historical and More

  Abbasi Mosque was registered on the 15th of Daymah 1310 (1931) in the national index. The mosque is one of the architectural masterpieces, Kashy‌Kary and carvings in the eleventh century AH (the Safavid era) is a historical mosque and one of the country's historical and cultural attractions. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic value of tourism of Abbasi Mosque as a heritage tourism attractions and measuring the willingness to pay by induiduals. The data were collocted by completing 550 questionnaires and interviews with visitors to the mosque. To analyze the factors affecting willingness to pay, the ordered probit model was used. Among the factors affecting willingness to pay, the effect of family size, level of knowledge and awareness, conservation of cultural heritage, attitude, level of income and entrance fee were statistically significant. Furthermore, on the findings, 5.94 persent of visitors were willing to pay to visit Abbasi Mosque. Furthermore, on the average, willingness to pay to visit Abbasi Mosque, was 561,375 Rials per household and the number of domestic visitors in 2010, tourism economic value of the cultural heritage of the domestic visitors and consumption surplus  were over 3,560 and 2,370 million Rials, respectively Manuscript profile
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  16 - Locating Industries in an Unequal Space(An Empirical Study of Sugar Industry in Iran)
  M. Moghaddam
  Spatial inequality in locating industries is one of the reasons of income inequality of nations. Optimal locating of industries not only leads to optimal use from potential capacities of production, but also minimizes production and distribution costs of commodity and m More

  Spatial inequality in locating industries is one of the reasons of income inequality of nations. Optimal locating of industries not only leads to optimal use from potential capacities of production, but also minimizes production and distribution costs of commodity and maximizes average income as far as possible. This paper intends to offer an appropriate and applicable model for finding an optimal location for any economic activity. It also tries to find out whether it is possible to optimally determine the location of an economic activity. The method of the study is applied. Due to strategic importance of sugar industries, this paper studies their behavior in Wes Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan provinces on the basis of previous studies, document analysis and data gathering. The time period of this study is from 1996-2006. The econometrics method of this study is multiple Logit and Probit models using Eviews software. After model estimation, the t-student statistics and Maximum Likelihood Ration were used for the explanation of the results. Then, using different techniques such as Principal Component Analysis and analytical method, the numerical taxonomy of locations with more profitability potentiality was prioritized and the best location for building the plant was determined.   Manuscript profile
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  17 - Asymmetric information and the Demand for Voluntary Health Insurance in Shiraz
  N. Ashktorab M. Bakhshoodeh
  In recent years, the role and importance of information have been quickly entered into the theories and policies. All reforms of health policies, including voluntary health insurance are necessarily in need of addressing the problem of asymmetric information.The present More

  In recent years, the role and importance of information have been quickly entered into the theories and policies. All reforms of health policies, including voluntary health insurance are necessarily in need of addressing the problem of asymmetric information.The present study examined the relationship between health risk and the probability of voluntary health insurance using probit model. Then, the causes of the correlation between voluntary health information and health risk were identified by ordered probit model. The results of the study show a negative correlation between health risk and probability of voluntary health insurance which is related to moral hazards in insurance market. The main reason is the incompetence and inefficiency of insurance system. According to the study, the negative correlation is related to the information that insurance companies obtained and screenings in the insurance market by choosing strategies for dealing with moral hazard not the heterogeneous risk preferences of individuals. Manuscript profile