List of Articles JEL classification: E31

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  1 - Dynamics between Macroeconomic Variables and the Core Inflation Gap with the MIDAS-VAR Approach
  Amir Mansour Tehranchian MirHosssein Mousavi Zahramila Elmi Zahra Kashanian
  10.30495/eco.2023.1984033.2746
  The wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to t More

  The wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to the inflation index. Based on this, current inflation is not considered a suitable indicator for policy making and modeling due to high fluctuations. On the other hand, core inflation as a stable component of current inflation is a more suitable indicator for economic policies due to its stability. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and inflation core gap using SVAR method, n Iran's economy in the period of1998-2021. The momentum of oil price fluctuations and liquidity do not have a significant impact on the core inflation gap. The core inflation gap is most influenced by currency impulses and its own fluctuations, which shows the impact of inflation expectations on the formation of core inflation; According to the findings of the research, it is suggested to control exchange rate fluctuations and target core inflation in order to control inflationary expectations.The results show that the core inflation index has been more stable compared to the inflation rate and exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the core inflation gap. Manuscript profile
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  2 - SPECIFYING the EARLY WARNING MODEL for INFLATION by USING MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH
  Mohsen Mehrara seyed Mohamad Hosein Fatemi
  Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an ave More

  Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 28%) and low inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 12%), are identified and causes of regime transition have been surveyed. The results show the significant impact of liquidity growth and the output gap on inflation in both regimes. On the other hand, inflationary impact of liquidity growth in low inflation regime estimated less than the high inflation regime. The results of the Markov model indicate that liquidity growth and money market disequilibrium are the factors of transmission from low inflation to high inflation regime but these variables do not contain any significant implications for the transition from high inflation to low inflation regime. So according to the results, it can be concluded that the use of monetary expansionary policies in a low inflation regime can be more effective on the production than high inflation regime. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Inflation Persistency in Iran with the Heterogeneous Approach of Economic Agents in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
  Mansour Khalili Araghi yazdan gudarzi farahani
  The purpose of this paper is to investigate the inflation persistency regarding the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents. For this, the data were used from 1991-2015 based on seasonal data and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The innovation of this pa More

  The purpose of this paper is to investigate the inflation persistency regarding the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents. For this, the data were used from 1991-2015 based on seasonal data and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The innovation of this paper is Calvo pricing assumption regarding the lag in inflation rate and indexing parameter in which inflation persistency conditions computing will be more relevant to Iran’s economy. The results showed that inflation expectations have a major role in inflation rate formation so that even if the inflation rate declines it will occur in a longer time due to inflation persistency. It, was cleared the prices have less reaction ability in relation to inflation persistency. It is suggested to the monetary authorities by considering the domestic inflation targeting rule in addition to inflation control, they stabilize the domestic production in the natural level in which   it is  required  the monetary authorities to have credibility in views of economic agents. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Effect of Inflation on Solvency of Insurance Companies in Iran
  Hossein Raghfar esmael safarzadeh Maryam Qafourboroujerdi
  The target of this article is to investigate the effect of inflation on the solvency of insurance companies in Iran. In this regard, panel data regression models was used to specify the model study from 1391 to 1394. The results show that inflation, current ratio and eq More

  The target of this article is to investigate the effect of inflation on the solvency of insurance companies in Iran. In this regard, panel data regression models was used to specify the model study from 1391 to 1394. The results show that inflation, current ratio and equity ratio have positive and significant effect on solvency, while loss coefficient and reserves ratio have negative effect on solvency. According to the results, it is suggested that insurance companies change their activities from leveraged companies to capital based ones; consider reserves in another part of balance sheet except for the liabilities part; describe a range as the optimal range of current ratio and define some groups of premium related to the average damages. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Inflation Behavior of Tradable and Non-Tradable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach
  javid bahrami Behnoosh sadat Aghayan esfandiar jahangard
  Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate tha More

  Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate that non-tradable inflation is more responsive as a result of shocks. Monetary shock has had the greatest impact on non-tradable inflation, while Exchange rate and monetary shock have the greatest impact on tradable inflation in terms of initial effect and durability respectively. Based on the results, policy makers' attention to the components of inflation is suggested when economic decisions are made. Manuscript profile
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  6 - The Effect of Financial Market Variables and Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate Returns of Iran and major trading partners (1990 to 2015)
  Reza Najarzade Lotfali Agheli Elham Khorasani
  The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial and fundamental variables on exchange rate fluctuations for Iran and 11 countries of her major trading partners during 1990-2015 with General Method of Moments (GMM) approaach. The overall results suggest that More

  The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial and fundamental variables on exchange rate fluctuations for Iran and 11 countries of her major trading partners during 1990-2015 with General Method of Moments (GMM) approaach. The overall results suggest that stock index differentials, the interest rates differentials, net capital inflows, net bond inflows, budget deficit and the relative efficiency of non-tradable sector have a negative and significant impact on the exchange rate. However, the inflation rate differentials and the relative efficiency of tradable sector have a positive effect. Inflation, deficit and the relative efficiency of tradable sector showed to have the greatest impact on the exchange rate returns. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the role of the government through the transfer of activities to the nongovernmental sector and less government intervention in the economy to reduce the adverse effects of the budget deficit on macroeconomic performance, to prevent a sharp increase in liquidity in the community, and to reduce the conversion of oil revenues to rials relative to Reducing inflation, and improving efficiency index, especially that of tradable sector to preserve the value of the national currency is helpful. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Does oil price uncertainty affect the Tehran Stock Exchange index? Quantile regression approach based on wavelet transform
  Ali Sargolzaei Narges Salehnia Massoud Homayounifar S. Mohammad Qaim Zabihi
  10.30495/fed.2023.707978
  Abstract Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index is of great importance because with increasing uncertainty in oil prices, the systematic risk of the stock market index increases. On the other hand, in oil exporting countrie More

  Abstract Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index is of great importance because with increasing uncertainty in oil prices, the systematic risk of the stock market index increases. On the other hand, in oil exporting countries such as Iran, oil revenues are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables and, consequently, financial market indicators. The present study investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index using the wavelet-based quantile regression model (MODWT-MRA) during the period April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran.. The results of the model estimate showed that with the increase in oil price uncertainty, the Tehran Stock Exchange index will decrease. According to the results, the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the first few quantiles has a smaller coefficient than the final quantiles, so the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in recent months is more than the first months. Also, the coefficient value on the component 5 scale is much higher than the component 1 scale; Therefore, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the short run is much greater than the value of this effect in the long run. This is because in the long run, the investor will adjust to the uncertainty. Manuscript profile
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  8 - Determining the Desired Level of Monetary Base and the Money Multiplierand the Impact of each on Inflation
  علی اباذری عسکری حمیدرضا حری علیرضا شکیبایی
  10.30495/fed.2021.687873
  In recent decades, numerous studies have been conducted about inflation in developed and developing countries. Although there is a general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is no consensus among economists about its causes. This study, using data from the More

  In recent decades, numerous studies have been conducted about inflation in developed and developing countries. Although there is a general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is no consensus among economists about its causes. This study, using data from the years 1973-2017 is to investigate the role of liquidity growth on inflation in Iran. Liquidity will be discussed from two channels; the monetary base and the money multiplier, which are the components of the society’s money volume and the impact of each of these two factors on inflation is measured, and the favorable and optimal rate will be obtained for the economy of the country. Research methodology and estimation is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results show that the monetary base variable has had a positive significant effect on the variable inflation. The money multiplier has had a positive and significant impact on inflation regarding its importance as one of the effective variables in the changes in money volume. Manuscript profile