List of Articles C11

• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  1 - Modeling the Factors Affecting the Capital Structure in Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Approach of Bayesian Averaging Model
  Zahra Talebi Mohammad Sokhanvar Tahereh Akhoondzadeh
  10.30495/eco.2023.1980503.2731
  The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results More

  The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results of companies, the aim of the research is to model the factors affecting the capital structure in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (the approach of Bayesian averaging (BMA), This research is practical in terms of purpose and correlational in terms of nature. In order to achieve the goal of the research, 175 companies were selected from among the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1400 by systematic elimination method and considered as the main sample.In order to identify the most important variables affecting the capital structure, the BMA model has been used. Based on this, 61 identified variables affecting the capital structure were included in the Bayesian averaging model. These variables were divided into two categories of internal and external factors. Based on previous probabilities, 17 variables were identified as important variables on capital structure. Among these variables, 10 intra-company variables (type of ownership; net operating profit; current ratio; total assets turnover ratio; interest rate coverage ratio; debt-to-equity ratio; beta per share; accrual profit management; financial distress and tax) and 7 external variables (inflation, exchange rate, budget deficit, business climate index, economic resilience index, sanctions index, capital market depth) were effective on the capital structure Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  2 - Identifying the Determinants of Corruption: An Application of Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging
  Safoora Kashefi Mohsen Mehrara Ghahraman Abdoli
  10.30495/eco.2020.674216
  AbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The re More

  AbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The results derived from an instrumental variable Bayesian model averaging analysis indicate that based on the data of 123 countries, rule of law, with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 1 and posterior mean of 0.662 has the most important role in keeping corruption under control among 36 explanatory variables. Government effectiveness, with a PIP of 0.964 and posterior mean of 0.358 is another significant variable in curbing corruption. Also, with a PIP of 0.965 and posterior mean of -0.194 the Asia dummy variable tells that corruption is a serious problem in the Asia region. Further, confining the analysis to 95 developing countries reveals that rule of law with a PIP of 0.999 and posterior mean of 0.684 is the most critical variable in the fight against corruption. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  3 - Analysis of Driver-Police Interaction Using Game Theory
  faramarz masoumzadeh Kiumars shahbazi
  10.30495/eco.2022.1880104.2257
  In this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide wheth More

  In this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide whether to fine or not, and in the second stage, the driver decides whether to pay a bribe or not. The driver compares the amount of the fine and the cost of the bribe. It can be concluded that the more lawful the police, the lower the bribe payment. Punishment of bribe recipients and payers can also prevent bribery and help eradicate possible corruption in this important organ of the country. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  4 - Role of Financial Development in Monetary Policy Effectiveness in determinate of Input and inflation
  Seyedeh Maryam Monfared Teymoor Mohammadi mohammad khezri Oranoos Parivar
  10.30495/eco.2022.1943459.2585
  The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial development on efficiency of monetary policy in Iran during 1979-2020. The ratio of banks' domestic credit to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on banking sector and rati More

  The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial development on efficiency of monetary policy in Iran during 1979-2020. The ratio of banks' domestic credit to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on banking sector and ratio of the value of stock market transactions to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on the capital market. In this regard, 4 models were introduced to achieve research objectives and were estimated using the Kalman-Filter approach. The results of estimating the first two models of the research showed that with improvement of financial development indicators, the efficiency of monetary policy in influencing economic growth will decrease. The results of estimating the third and fourth models of the study also showed that effect of financial development indicators on efficiency of monetary policy in impact on inflation has been negative and statistically significant, meaning that with improvement of financial development indicators in country, monetary policies will lead to lower inflation. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  5 - Time-varying Effects of Inflation Determinants: State-space Models
  m. khezri B. Sahabi K. Yavari H. Heidari
  Abstract Based on the importance of inflation in Iran economy, paying careful attention to inflation determinants is essential. According to the results of various studies, the evaluation of inflaion determinants by using standard VAR model leads to wrong conclusions d More

  Abstract Based on the importance of inflation in Iran economy, paying careful attention to inflation determinants is essential. According to the results of various studies, the evaluation of inflaion determinants by using standard VAR model leads to wrong conclusions due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. The problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is an example. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of the determinants of inflation in Iran economy and forecasting the inflation, TVP-VAR models are used to model the inflation instead of VAR model with constant coefficients. So that the variables of GDP, growth of monetary basis, inflation, exchange rates,banks interest rates and inflation uncertainty are modeled. The results represent changeable relationships between variables over time and the impact of economic conditions on the effects of variables on each other.  Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  6 - Real Business Cycles Model with Habits Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle
  Seyed Fakhreddin Fakhrhoseini
  In economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating pe More

  In economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating performance of habits formation while inseparability between consumption and leisure.  The data are related to the constant prices in 1383 and annually from 1966 to 2014. So, the variables were been detrended   after taking logarithm of the variables by using Hodrick- Prescott filter. The final model equations have been specified around the linearized stabled situation through the Ohlig (1999) approach for linearized stochastic equations, in the form of a space-state model in Matlab programming. The results show that adding habits formation parameter can increase the Sharpe ratio or no risky asset fluctuations and inseparability between consumption and leisure can help explain the equity premium puzzle.  Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  7 - WHEN DOES GOVERNMENT DEBT CROWD OUT PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN IRAN? DSGE APPOACH
  طیبه نسرین دوست کریم امامی سید شمس الدین حسینی کامبیز پیکارجو
  In this paper, the effect of government debt crowd out on private sector investment in the Iranian economy is investigated, using the New keynesian model in a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model (DSGE) and the Bayesian estimation solution method during the years 1997-2 More

  In this paper, the effect of government debt crowd out on private sector investment in the Iranian economy is investigated, using the New keynesian model in a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model (DSGE) and the Bayesian estimation solution method during the years 1997-2017 .Financing government resources is important, especially in recent years, when government issues bonds and it is necessary to apply shocks and examine the effects of government policy. In this regard, several policy shocks have been applied to the system and the response between fiscal and monetary policies has been examined. The results show that direct government policy interventions are made, the effect of crowd out government debt on private investment is greater than in conditions where there is a market system or at least less government policy.Contrary to the conventional view, no systematic relationships between real interest rates and  private investment. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  8 - Ranking of internal and external factors affecting fraudulent financial reporting using a hierarchical analysis process
  فاطمه خلیلی ثمرین مهدی خلیل پور جواد رمضانی
  The purpose of this study is to determine the importance and ranking of internal and external factors affecting fraudulent financial reporting. The statistical population in this study includes members of the Iranian Society of Certified Public Accountants who have char More

  The purpose of this study is to determine the importance and ranking of internal and external factors affecting fraudulent financial reporting. The statistical population in this study includes members of the Iranian Society of Certified Public Accountants who have characteristics such as teaching experience at the university, having a doctorate, history of professional activity in the profession of auditing and financial management, which according to the restrictions 30 people were considered as a sample. In this research, AHP technique and Expert Choice software have been used to analyze the data. The results of the analysis showed that extra-organizational factors were the first priority in creating fraudulent reporting with a score of 0.243 and intra-organizational factors were the next priority with a score of 0.214. Also, according to the research results, from external factors, respectively, factors related to the characteristics of independent auditing, cultural factors, legal and regulatory factors outside the organization, and from internal factors, respectively, professional characteristics and management structure. Behavioral characteristics of management, behavioral and moral characteristics, characteristics related to systemic and human errors have been the most important. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  9 - Presenting a Comprehensive Model for Measuring the Liquidity Risk of Banks Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (Case Study: Mellat Bank)
  Toraj Azari Mojtaba Tastori Reza Tehrani
  10.30495/fed.2022.694721
   AbstractLack of liquidity management of banks is one of the most important risks for any bank and lack of attention to liquidity risk leads to irreparable consequences. Preventing liquidity risk requires a comprehensive measurement method but liquidity risk is com More

   AbstractLack of liquidity management of banks is one of the most important risks for any bank and lack of attention to liquidity risk leads to irreparable consequences. Preventing liquidity risk requires a comprehensive measurement method but liquidity risk is complicated issue, and this complexity makes it difficult to provide a proper definition. In addition, defining liquidity risk determinants and formulation of the related objective function to measurement its value is a difficult task. To address these problems and assess liquidity risk and its key factors, in this study we propose a model that uses artificial neural networks and Bayesian networks. Design and implementation of this model includes several algorithms and experiments to validate the model. In this paper, we have used Levenberg-Marquardt and Genetic optimization algorithms to teach artificial neural networks. We have also implemented a case study in Bank Mellat to demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, accuracy and flexibility of the research liquidity risk measurement model.  Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  10 - Investigating the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's economy with an emphasis on human capital
  Mohammad  Rowshanroo Mehrzad Ebrahimi Hashem  Zare
  This research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sancti More

  This research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sanctions led to a decline in oil revenues, subsequently reducing public spending on education and hindering human capital development. This decline in human capital has far-reaching consequences, including diminished productivity, reduced investment, and slower economic growth, alongside an inflationary uptick. As inflation erodes real wages, households respond by reducing labor supply, which, in turn, dampens consumption. Given the critical role of human capital in Iran's economic growth, policymakers must safeguard public education spending, particularly during periods of decreased oil revenues. By prioritizing investments in education, the government can mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and foster long-term economic resilience. In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of maintaining educational investments amidst economic challenges, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal management to sustain human capital development and drive economic progress. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  11 - The relationship between exchange rate overshooting and currency substitution in Iran’s economy
  Seyed Mansour  Heshmati Sanzighi Rahman Saadat Esmaeil Abounoori
  When a country's domestic currency fails to fulfill its roles, foreign currency often replaces it, a phenomenon known as currency substitution. This is particularly common in developing countries and influenced by both economic and political factors. One significant eco More

  When a country's domestic currency fails to fulfill its roles, foreign currency often replaces it, a phenomenon known as currency substitution. This is particularly common in developing countries and influenced by both economic and political factors. One significant economic aspect affecting currency substitution is exchange rate overshooting. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between exchange rate overshooting and currency substitution in Iran. Utilizing the Kamin-Ericsson (2003) method, we first examine the foreign currency in circulation and the volume of currency substitution in Iran’s economy using annual data from 1961 to 2021. Then, the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) method employed to analyze the impact of exchange rate overshooting on currency substitution. The results indicate that exchange rate overshooting and inflation consistently lead to increased currency substitution in Iran’s economy. Conversely, economic growth negatively affects currency substitution. Additionally, neutralizing the effects of shocks related to exchange rate overshooting, economic development, and inflation requires more than five years. Therefore, economic policymakers must consider these factors when managing currency substitution. Manuscript profile