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Open Access Article
1 - The optimal choice of futures scenarios auditing profession with grounded theory approach
امیرحسین بهرامیان Bizhan Abedini Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar Faegh AhmadiThe future of “auditing” like any other phenomena depends on a range of variables: conditions such as forthcoming development in international trade globalization understanding needs of auditors and stakeholders for modern financial services and consulting a MoreThe future of “auditing” like any other phenomena depends on a range of variables: conditions such as forthcoming development in international trade globalization understanding needs of auditors and stakeholders for modern financial services and consulting as well as developments in information technology, could all have their own effects. Methodology:This research lies in the application research category seeking to show practical problems in “auditing”. Sample is comprised of 16 experts and professional auditors. In the absence of a previous model for such research, factors affecting the further of auditing were considered.Technically, grounded theory and analytic network process (ANP) have been untiled. To achieve this objection, a primary model was developed; ultimately using partial least square regression, an optimum model was evolved.Findings:For the first time as adomestic research, endeavor was made to grade sixty six relatively more important factors out of one hundred and one variables affecting future of auditing through a systematic review of the relevant elements.Based on the results found, social status, infective training and educational courses and government intervention in setting financial reporting regulations, have highest effects on auditing.Furthermore, based on the scenario-making for the optimum model, a model which utilized IFRS requirements and business cycles as a modifying element was found to be more effective as compared to the model using such factors as explanatory or intermediaries in the model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - The Effect of Positive and Negative Public Health Expenditure Shocks during Business Cycles on Health Status in Iran
Azadeh Jahantabi Nejad abolghasem golkhandanIntroduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of c MoreIntroduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of controlling the vulnerability of the lower classes of society in these periods. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the asymmetric effect of public health expenditures on the health status in Iran during periods of recession and boom. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the time series data during the period of 1979-2020, investigated the long-term effects of positive and negative public health expenditures shocks during business cycles, per capita income and physician per capita on the death rate of children under 5 years and life expectancy. Filtering approach and three filters HP, BK and CF have been used to identify business cycles. Also, the models were estimated in the form of a regression model using the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) method in Eviews 12.0 software.Results: The results show that the public health expenditure had a pro-cyclical behavior during the period under review. In the long-term, the effect of negative public health expenditure shocks during business cycles on weakening health indicators is greater than the effect of its positive shocks on strengthening health indicators (confirmation of asymmetric effect). Also, the impact of positive and negative shocks on public health expenditures during periods of economic recession is greater than during periods of economic boom. With a 1% decrease in public health expenditures during periods of economic recession, the death rate of children under 5 years increases by 0.17% and the life expectancy decreases by 0.13%.Conclusion: Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to increase public health expenditures during periods of economic recession in order to reduce the vulnerability of the lower classes of society. But, considering the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures, it is necessary to adopt policies and solutions to reduce the intensity of this behavior. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Mechanism of impulse effects of oil price, macroeconomic factors and political effects of embargo on energy market, unemployment, budget deficit and business cycles of the country
mohammad taghizadeh marjan damankeshideh hooshang momeni majed afshari radThis article explains the impact of oil price impulses, macroeconomic factors and the political effects of sanctions on the energy market, unemployment, budget deficit and business periods of the country for the years 1984-2020. Based on the SVAR model estimation result MoreThis article explains the impact of oil price impulses, macroeconomic factors and the political effects of sanctions on the energy market, unemployment, budget deficit and business periods of the country for the years 1984-2020. Based on the SVAR model estimation results; An impulse from the oil price area increases the production gap by 13% and an impulse from the exchange rate increases the production gap by 8%. The results also show that an impulse from the years of embargo in the country's oil income, the government budget deficit and the unemployment rate increase the production gap by 1, 4 and 32 percent, respectively. Also, based on the results of variance analysis, 65.71% of the production gap is related to oil price impulses, 0.08% is related to foreign exchange impulse, 5.55% is related to the impulse of the sanctions years in the country's oil income, 6.34% is related to the export impulse. Nafti, 14.16 percent was related to budget deficit impulse and 6.24 percent was related to unemployment impulse. Therefore, the gap between production and supply and export of oil in our country does not move in the same direction. It seems that the creation of a suitable theoretical relationship between the discussed variables in our country is more than affected by the current economic policies of the government, it is undergoing fundamental changes in the structure and political and economic conditions. Therefore, the more the impulse effects increase in the country, the amount of investment in the production sector will decrease and it will worsen the country's production situation and cause the production to move away from the main path, so the government's attention to investment in the production and export sectors. It is necessary. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Spillover between OPEC oil Price and Equity Markets Considering Business Cycles and Structural Breakdown (Case study; GCC Countries and Iran)
morteza bavaghar Mahdi faghani Mohammad Hossein RanjbarStudying the spillover between markets is an important and controversial topic in the financial field. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spillover between OPEC oil prices and the stock market of Iran and GCC countries considering trade cycles and structur MoreStudying the spillover between markets is an important and controversial topic in the financial field. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spillover between OPEC oil prices and the stock market of Iran and GCC countries considering trade cycles and structural failure. The data were collected monthly through the OPEC official web site and the archives of each of the countries listed on the stock exchange index from the beginning of 2012 until the end of the first half of 2018, using bivariate GARCH-BEKK, correlation models and Granger Causality test. The results show that the spillover of OPEC oil price volatility without affecting structural breakdown affects the stock markets of the target countries. But when it comes to structural failure, the results will be different. The results of Granger Causality test also show that there is no causal link between OPEC oil price and Tehran Stock Exchange index, but in some of GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, oil prices at different intervals is due to changes in the stock market index. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Institutional Ownership, Business Cycles and Earnings Informativeness of Income Smoothing: Evidence from Iran
Omid Faraji Mohammad Reza Fathi Sahar Motahari Kia Fatemeh Younesi Motie Seyed Hasan Masoudi Alavi -
Open Access Article
6 - The Role of Government under Pandemic Disease Conditions
Ali Keshavarzi Hamid Reza Horry seied abdolmajid jalaee sfand abadi Meysam Rafei mahdi nejatiThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After ca MoreThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2016, in the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the government has no involvement in the economy; In other words, the government pursues a state of fiscal passivity and shows no fiscal reaction to the change in endogenous variables after the outbreak of pandemic disease. Subsequently, in other scenarios, the government reacts fiscally to the outbreak of the pandemic, given the different conditions of production and public liability. The results of the study of fiscally active scenarios compared to the state of fiscal passivity indicate that the effect of government expenditures shock as a standard deviation on macroeconomic variables under pandemic disease conditions, has led to much less feedback. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Analysis of the Effect of News Shocks Related to the Future Technology on on on Economic Welfare
mohammad alibegli nader mehregan alireza erfaniThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal d MoreThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal data during 2001-2021. The results indicate that the news shocks increases the productivity of all production factors within one standard deviation. This increase escalates the wage rate as well as the interest rate. Household consumption, production and investment also increase opposing this shock. Due to the increase in production, the working hours will increase and consequently the inflation will decrease. Moreover, the economic prosperity grows due to the increased consumption and production. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - An analysis of the automatic stabilization of direct and indirect taxes in Iran
mohammad taghi gilak hakim abadi Ali MehreganIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, un MoreIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, unlike empirical, direct taxes have not had a significant effect on reducing fluctuations in economic cycles. Also, the effect of indirect taxes on economic cycles is faster than direct taxes. Based on the results, it is suggested to use more of the country's tax capacity to better perform the government's stabilizing task in the economy, especially the reform of tax bases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Trade Integration, Specialization and Synchronization of Business cycles in ECO: Evidences of a Dynamic Correlation Index
Saeed Rasekhi Ahmad Jafari Samimi somayeh SadeghiNew international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 19 MoreNew international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 1993-2007, introducing a new and dynamic cross correlation index and using GMM methods. The results represent that increased trade (intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade) strengthen synchronization in ECO Countries. Also, more industrial similarities of a pair of countries induce higher bilateral synchronization. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Evaluation of Nature of Fiscal Policy of Iran in Business Cycles
Zhale Zarei Maryam Hemmati iIlnaz EbrahimiIn this research, the nature of Iran's fiscal policy has been evaluated in business cycles in the period of 1999: Q2- 2021:Q1. For this purpose, the specified model of Hristov (2013) has been used, in which adjustments have been applied due to the dependence of Iran's e MoreIn this research, the nature of Iran's fiscal policy has been evaluated in business cycles in the period of 1999: Q2- 2021:Q1. For this purpose, the specified model of Hristov (2013) has been used, in which adjustments have been applied due to the dependence of Iran's economy on oil revenues, and the time series of disposable income and consumption of the private sector from the household budget data published by the Iranian Statistics Center. , has been extracted. Also, the VECMX approach has been used to calculate the momentum of expenditures, tax and oil revenues. The results showed that the government spending in periods of economic boom and recession have a positive and significant effect on the growth of private sector consumption, in other words, fiscal policy in Iran is Keynesian in nature. But the intensity of the effects of government expenditure impulses on the growth of private sector consumption e is greater in periods of prosperity than in periods of recession. Also, the number of interruptions in the impact of government expenditure impulses on the growth of private sector consumption is different in the period of prosperity and recession, and this amount is more in the period of recession. In addition, the evaluation of other fiscal policy variables shows that the impulses of tax revenues on the growth of private sector consumption were not significant in business cycles, and the impulses of oil revenues are also positive and significant with four interruptions only in the period of prosperity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - The Impact of Islamic Financial Instruments on the Occurrence of Business Cycles in the Iranian Economy: A Case Study of Participation Bonds
Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani Vahid Mahboubi MatinThe aim of this study was to investigate the role of Islamic financial instruments inthe occurrence of business cycles in the Iranian economy. In this regard, theemphasis has been on Islamic participation bonds offered by the Central Bank. Forthis purpose, statistical d MoreThe aim of this study was to investigate the role of Islamic financial instruments inthe occurrence of business cycles in the Iranian economy. In this regard, theemphasis has been on Islamic participation bonds offered by the Central Bank. Forthis purpose, statistical data from the period 1992-2020 and structural vectorautoregression model (SVAR) were used. The results of this study showed that theimpetus from the supply of participation bonds as a tool for monetary policy and anIslamic financial instrument has led to the fact that the amount of business cycles inthe Iranian economy is not moderated. In fact, the results showed that the variablesof budget deficit, exchange relationship and price were the most important variablesaffecting business cycles in the Iranian economy. The results showed thatparticipation bonds could not act as an anti-cyclical policy tool in the Iranianeconomy. Considering the results of how Islamic financial instruments affectbusiness cycles in the Iranian economy, it is necessary to recognize the impact ofgovernment budget deficit and its financing. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Using Smooth Transition Regression (STR) to predict Business Cycles
Harmony Shahmoradi Hamid Abrishami Oranus ParivarForecasting business cycles is very important in macroeconomic and it is an important part in process of economic decision-making and policy. In recent years, non-linear models have been considered more for forecasting economic variables and application of these models MoreForecasting business cycles is very important in macroeconomic and it is an important part in process of economic decision-making and policy. In recent years, non-linear models have been considered more for forecasting economic variables and application of these models has been made a significant improvement in modeling of the behavior of variables in the area of macroeconomic and particularly financial economics. This article provides a convenient and powerful model for forecasting business cycles by using smooth transition regression (STR). The results show that very little error that indicates model performance is acceptable. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Asymmetric oil price shocks, tax revenues, resource curses, stock markets and trading cycles in oil-exporting economies
Hamidreza Modiri Marjan DamankeshideAbstract The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the respo MoreAbstract The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the response of the output gap to the shock of oil prices and exchange rates is a downward trend for up to 3 periods, after which it rises and in the long run this shock is gradually adjusted, but the problem that exists and the response of the output gap to liquidity also show this. is. Revenues from oil sales and foreign exchange earnings are not well managed in oil-rich countries, and the amount of liquidity injected into the market is spent on imports, which are generally done to combat inflation. In this case, many production sectors will be seriously damaged and will be taken out of the production cycle, and therefore part of the investments made in the economy will be unused and the amount of production will decrease, and on the other hand, when foreign exchange earnings decrease, the amount of imports. It has been reduced that part of the decrease in imports will be directed to capital goods and production machinery, leading to a decrease in investment and an increase in the production gap. Sectors that were taken out of production as a result of massive imports of consumer goods during the period of increasing oil revenues will not be revived in this period, which requires more attention of the country's officials to macroeconomic indicators. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - The Impact of Macroeconomic, Financial, Economic and Economic Crisis Indicators on Trade Cycles of Iran and Selected Islamic and Developed Developing Countries
Seyedeh Fatemeh Bagheri Rafik Nazarian Manijeh Manijeh Hadinejad Marjan DamankeshidehAbstractThe present study uses the Generalized System Torque Model (SGMM) and dynamic panel data (PANEL VAR) to investigate the impact of macroeconomic, financial, economic and economic crises on business cycles of selected developing and developed countries over time. MoreAbstractThe present study uses the Generalized System Torque Model (SGMM) and dynamic panel data (PANEL VAR) to investigate the impact of macroeconomic, financial, economic and economic crises on business cycles of selected developing and developed countries over time. 2013-2019, 1392-1398. In this paper, the effect of independent variables (liquidity risk, return on assets, capital adequacy ratio, etc.) on business cycles in selected countries through the output gap variable using the Hadrick Prescott filter is used to evaluate the results of the model. Liquidity risk, lending facility growth rates and financial crises have a negative impact on the output gap, while return on assets, capital adequacy ratio, crude oil prices, exchange rates and the development of financial markets have a negative impact on periods. Have left the trade of selected countries.The results of the study of the reactions of instantaneous reaction (IRF) and analysis of variance for developed countries show that a standard deviation in terms of oil price index and exchange rate on the output gap, these variables show a decrease of up to two periods. Increased development of financial markets and banking health has continued, after 2 periods of shock effect of oil prices and exchange rates over time on the output gap of developed countries will be minimized.Also for developing countries; a standard deviation from The area of oil price index and exchange rate on the output gap, these variables have increased up to two periods and after 4 periods, has decreased, in other words, the effect of oil prices on the production of developing countries shows that in periods Rising oil prices, investment and production have increased, and conversely, when oil revenues fall, we see a decline in production, in other words, rising oil revenues are largely unmanaged, in other words, long-term investments are spent on short-term expenditures. It has resulted in nothing but inflation and increased liquidity for these countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Dynamic spillover between foreign exchange and stock markets in the business cycles of Iranian economy
Mehdi Mozafarnia Mir Faiz Fallah Shams Lialestani Gholamreza ZamardianAbstract The increasing integration of financial markets and recent financial crises has created a new wave of researchers' attention to the issue of spillover and contagion in financial markets, to be able to better choose risk hedging instruments whit predicting mark MoreAbstract The increasing integration of financial markets and recent financial crises has created a new wave of researchers' attention to the issue of spillover and contagion in financial markets, to be able to better choose risk hedging instruments whit predicting market trends. Policymakers and market participants are also increasingly paying attention to the spillover effects and how they behave during different periods of economic boom and busts. Therefore, the present study aims to estimate the spillover effects between foreign exchange and stock markets in the Iranian economy and seeks to study how the spillover between these two markets behaves in the business cycles of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, by studying the daily data of 1389-1399 in which the Iranian economy is facing two periods of economic boom and two periods of economic recession, the daily spillover of foreign exchange and stock markets has been estimated and analyzed based on dynamic spillover econometric approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). According to the results, in general, the spillover effect between two markets exists, but the spillover rate from the foreign exchange market to the stock market is higher than the spillover from the stock market to the foreign exchange market. Also, the spillover and, of course, the dependence of the two markets during the recession was time-varying and is more severe than during the boom. These results have important implications for policymakers and market participants and show that it is necessary to consider the relationship between the foreign exchange market and stock market according to the state of the business cycle of the economy in investment policies and decisions. Also, it is not optimal to adopt a fixed and predetermined approach, both for macro policies and for investment strategies, in these markets. Manuscript profile
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