-
Open Access Article
1 - The Design and Calibration of a New Keynesian DSGE Model with Stock Market Dynamics in Iran Economy
Ahmad Salahmanesh Seyed Aziz Arman Ebrahim Anvari Abdollah PourjavanFinancial markets especially capital market can make strong connections with other parts of the economy. After 2007/2008 financial crisis and global extensive economic recession, the economists show interest in the financial markets function again. The purpose of this s MoreFinancial markets especially capital market can make strong connections with other parts of the economy. After 2007/2008 financial crisis and global extensive economic recession, the economists show interest in the financial markets function again. The purpose of this study is to design and calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium new Keynesian model with Stock market dynamism to investigate the stock market channal effectiveness mechanism on macroeconomics variables. So an open DSGE model containing households, firms, banks, government and central bank was designed and after log-linearization, then the model’s parameters were calibrated using quarterly data 1996:3-2013:2 and experimental studies results. This study shows that a negative shock to stock price index in the DSGE model via financial accelerator and bank capital channel will result in decrease production, consumption, investment, deposits and inflation and therefor the macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment and production have stronger relationship with stock market dynamism Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - The role of monetary variables and financial frictions on the stock market in the form of DSGE model
Lleila Barati yazdan goodarziThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of monetary policy and financial frictions on the stock market. In this study, the role of imperfections in financial markets as well as monetary policy on capital market performance and other macroeconomic variable MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of monetary policy and financial frictions on the stock market. In this study, the role of imperfections in financial markets as well as monetary policy on capital market performance and other macroeconomic variables has been evaluated. In this regard, the statistical information of the period of 1989-2021 was used based on the frequency of seasonal data. The method used in this study is to solve the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The results obtained from the monetary policy shock in this study showed that due to the existence of imperfection in the financial markets, it leads to volatility and instability in the capital market. In fact, the shock of the monetary policy has led to a change in the rate of return in the markets and this issue has affected the demand and supply of stocks. In addition, the monetary policy shock has had real effects on the economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Financial accelerator in a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors for Iran
Hassan Heidari Ahmad MolabahramiThis study examines the financial accelerator theory of Bernanke and et al (1999) for Iran economy using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this regard, a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors in the New Keynesian framework is designed, ca MoreThis study examines the financial accelerator theory of Bernanke and et al (1999) for Iran economy using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this regard, a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors in the New Keynesian framework is designed, calibrated and simulated and the results are compared with standard DSGE model without financial sector for the quarterly data of Iran during 1371 to 1390. To examine the financial accelerator theory, the impulse responses functions of proposed model are compared with standard model. The results show that, the proposed model has better ability to fit the Economy of Iran than the standard model. The impulse responses functions analysis show that the impact of deposit rate shock on the real sector variables within the proposed model is greater and more persistence and need more time to settlement than standard model. So the theory of financial accelerator is accepted in the Economy of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in Iran stock market
Kiomars Sohaili Shahram Fattahi Narges RahmanianiThe main goal of this study is compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in iran stock market. In recent year Iran Stock Exchange has experience a bubble. Fiscal and monetary policies have a roll in bubbles. in this pap MoreThe main goal of this study is compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in iran stock market. In recent year Iran Stock Exchange has experience a bubble. Fiscal and monetary policies have a roll in bubbles. in this paper we have investigated a effect of monetary and fiscal polies in bubble. In this paper we consider a general equilibrium model to find effect of monetary and fiscal shocks in Iran Stock Exchange we use a Dynar software to evaluate the research and using the seasonal data from 1995-2014. The result has shown: that first, monetary policy shocks has increased interest of investment in Iran Stock Exchange. therefore Tobin's Q will increase and bubble will increase. Second, as result of fiscal policy shocks through increase in government spending, investing in financial markets like Iran Stock Exchange will decrease and price of stocks will decrease. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - نقش درآمدهای نفتی و اعتبارات بانکی با تأکید بر حاکمیت سیاستهای پولی در بخش تولید ایران با رهیافت یک مدل DSGE
جواد خلیل زاده سحر بشیری حسن حیدری -
Open Access Article
6 - ارزیابی ثبات مالی در اقتصاد ایران با تاکید بر رفتار متفاوت قرض دهی و قرضگیری با رویکرد مدل DSGE
حمید تقی زاده حسین شریفی رنانی سارا قبادی -
Open Access Article
7 - The effect of oil shocks on economic resilience in Iran
najme alsadat robati Ali RaeispourRajabali Abdol Majid jalaeeIn the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the MoreIn the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the main model, while using the estimated parameters, the effects of oil shocks in recent years on selected macroeconomic variables have been evaluated. Determining the degree to which oil revenues affect economic indicators can, in addition to determining the degree of economic resilience, help policymakers determine future plans. The phenomenon of fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, due to the dependence of the structure of Iran's economy on oil revenues, affects all macroeconomic variables - both in the public and private sectors. Accordingly, it is proposed to reform the tax system and reduce dependence on oil revenues, diversify the government's revenue portfolio, commit to a balanced budget and prevent disproportionate growth of the monetary base, strengthen the role of the foreign exchange reserve fund and monetary discipline for the government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Social Security Resources in Iran
Soheila Sobhani Mohammad Hassan Fotros Golamali Haji Esmael TorkamaniThe impact of the development of information and communication technology on the labor market and social security has been the focus of international labor and social security organizations. This study examines the impact of ICT on Social Security Resources in the conte MoreThe impact of the development of information and communication technology on the labor market and social security has been the focus of international labor and social security organizations. This study examines the impact of ICT on Social Security Resources in the context of Iran’s economy during the period 1999 to 2019, using the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, focused on duality of labor market (formal and informal). The results of the study show that the development of information and communication technology affects social security resources by changing the structure of employment. A survey on the variables response to the positive impulse of ICT shows that the further increase in job opportunities in the informal sector provides more access to jobs in this sector and increasing in the participation rate, the number of informal workers increases. The finding show increasing in informal employment causes an increase in the lost resources of social security. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers and insurance funds develop flexible programs in order to expand insurance coverage and support informal workers with the participation of employers and the government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - The Role of Economic and Environmental Policies on Preventing Air Pollution
Marziyeh Sadat Vahabzadeh Moghadam Karim Eami Farzaneh Haju HassaniThe purpose of the article is to investigate the role of economic and environmental policies on preventing air pollution using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model during the period of 1990-2019. Based on the results of the model, the economic policy MoreThe purpose of the article is to investigate the role of economic and environmental policies on preventing air pollution using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model during the period of 1990-2019. Based on the results of the model, the economic policy shock causes a sudden increase in economic growth and consumption and then their decrease; However, the economic policy shock increases air pollution. The shock of environmental policies, firstly, increases consumption and economic growth and then decreases them. Investment also decreases as a result of the shock of environmental policies. Based on the results of variance analysis, the role of economic policies for the country's economic situation and creating air pollution is greater than environmental policies. The role of environmental policies in reducing air pollution is less than the role of economic policies in increasing air pollution. It is suggested that when the government increases its expenditures, it imposes green taxes or carbon emission taxes at a lower rate than the increase in government expenditures so that the economic growth of the country will continue to be maintained along with the reduction of environmental pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Identification of Monetary Policy Items Influencing the Banking System
sorayya rafiee ghareshiran Karim Emami Farhad GhaffariThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilib MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilibrium Model (DSGE) and the emergence of long-run macroeconomic ratios in the 1370s and 1380s And others' studies.The results showed that with a positive shock to the interest rate, due to lower demand for loans, the lending rate and, as a result, banks' profits decrease, and due to positive oil shocks, liquidity increases, lending rates and investment increases, and the household's willingness Reduces savings, resulting in lower bank profitability. Based on the results, while considering the importance of the role of financial factors in the transfer mechanism and the intensity of monetary policy effects by policy makers, it is suggested to adopt measures to adjust the effects of economic shocks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Evaluation of Trade Rent-Seeking Effects on the Iran’s Economy through Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
samaneh moghaddasfar seyed komail tayebi alimorad sharifiThe purpose of this paper is to design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibriummodel to examine the effect of trade rent-seeking on labor behavior in Iran's economy. The empirical results of the analysis of Impulse Response Functions indicate that, with the positive sho MoreThe purpose of this paper is to design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibriummodel to examine the effect of trade rent-seeking on labor behavior in Iran's economy. The empirical results of the analysis of Impulse Response Functions indicate that, with the positive shock of the trade revenue, the trade rent-seeking rate has increased, and the labors has reduced its productive activity. In order to examine more precisely the welfare cost of rent-seeking, by Lucas's compensated variation pattern has been shown to decrease a 10% in rent-seeking rate it is increased households welfare benefit by 6%. Therefore, it is suggested that the economic policymaker with the import tariff setting based on the economic and society’s livelihood needs restricts the bargaining by the owners of the profit. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - The Welfare Computation under Different Fiscal Policies in an Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model Framework
hosein marzban zahra dehghan parviz rostamzadeh hamidreza izadiThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax MoreThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax instruments some different scenarios were provided. First scenario, the case with all taxes available, Second scenario, the case without consumption taxes, third scenario, the case of income and consumption taxes. The results indicate that the number of fiscal policy instruments available to the planner, plays an important role in the welfare changes in the optimal monetary and fiscal policy model. The minimum welfare loss occurs in last scenario and the maximum of welfare loss is related to second scenario. The proposal is that planner deal with determining polices in an optimum fiscal and monetary policy model, regarding available fiscal policy instruments and effects from economic shocks on welfare changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - The Effect of Mark-up Shocks on Intensification of Stagflation in Iran’s Economy: DSGE Approach
Teymour Mohammadi abbas shakeri Masoume EmamikalaeeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of existence of mark-up shocks, which is a criterion for monopolistic structure of industries on intensification of stagflation phenomenon in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, it has been utilized by the metho MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of existence of mark-up shocks, which is a criterion for monopolistic structure of industries on intensification of stagflation phenomenon in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, it has been utilized by the methodology of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium during the period of 1959-2014. The findings showed that mark-up shock increases price and decreases production which shows the existence of stagflation. Meanwhile, the mark-up shock will instantly decrease consumption and investment. As a result, mark-up shock does not have a positive effect on the economy as it tend to produce stagflation. Based on the results, it is possible that by consideration anti-monopoly laws it can be prevented increasing the mark-up. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - The Study of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Iran by Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models
mojtaba asghari ali haghighat masoud nonejad Hashem zareThe purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of exchange rates and the role of monetary and financial policies. For this purpose, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for a small open economy during the period of 1990-2016. The results show tha MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of exchange rates and the role of monetary and financial policies. For this purpose, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for a small open economy during the period of 1990-2016. The results show that in different scenarios there are signs of Dutch disease as a weakening of the trade sector, the strengthening of the non-trade sector, the increase in prices in the trade sector, the reduction of prices in the commercial sector and the reduction of the real exchange rate. Based on the results, active financial policies are recommended to control exchange rate fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Substitution of traditional money with virtual currencies and its effects on macroeconomic variables in the form of DSGE model
mohammad pouraghdam taghi torabi abbas memarnezhad teymor mohammadiThe purpose of this article was to investigate the replacement of traditional money with virtual currencies and its effects on macroeconomic variables with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, the data of the period 201 MoreThe purpose of this article was to investigate the replacement of traditional money with virtual currencies and its effects on macroeconomic variables with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, the data of the period 2018-2019 with seasonal frequency have been used. In the model designed in this article, it is assumed that due to the use of virtual money, a substitution between virtual money and traditional money will happen in people's asset portfolio. In this study, the shock caused by the price and volume of Bitcoin transactions is considered as an indicator for the demand for virtual currency. The results show that the shock from virtual currencies has led to a decrease in the demand for traditional money, in other words, there has been a substitution between holding traditional money and virtual money. In addition, the results indicated that due to the shock of virtual currencies, the amount of consumption in the economy has increased, and on the other hand, the amount of government income from royalties and money printing has decreased. Also, the results showed that the government's tax revenues have also decreased due to the trend of financial resources in the economy towards the demand of virtual currencies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - بررسی اثر شوک مالیاتهای مستقیم بر تولید ناخالص داخلی و تورم در ایران در چارچوب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی
سید نظام الدین مکیان حسین توکلیان سید محمد صالح نجفی فرا شاه -
Open Access Article
17 - نقش صندوق توسعه ملی در کاهش نوسانات اقتصادی ایران رویکرد (DSGE)
سید مجتبی حسین زاده یوسفآباد محسن مهرآرا حسین توکلیان -
Open Access Article
18 - برآورد ضریب فزاینده مالی در ایران با تاکید بر نحوه خرج کرد درآمدهای نفتی
مریم مهدی زاده یگانه موسوی جهرمی الهام غلامی احمد سرلک -
Open Access Article
19 - WHEN DOES GOVERNMENT DEBT CROWD OUT PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN IRAN? DSGE APPOACH
طیبه نسرین دوست کریم امامی سید شمس الدین حسینی کامبیز پیکارجوIn this paper, the effect of government debt crowd out on private sector investment in the Iranian economy is investigated, using the New keynesian model in a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model (DSGE) and the Bayesian estimation solution method during the years 1997-2 MoreIn this paper, the effect of government debt crowd out on private sector investment in the Iranian economy is investigated, using the New keynesian model in a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model (DSGE) and the Bayesian estimation solution method during the years 1997-2017 .Financing government resources is important, especially in recent years, when government issues bonds and it is necessary to apply shocks and examine the effects of government policy. In this regard, several policy shocks have been applied to the system and the response between fiscal and monetary policies has been examined. The results show that direct government policy interventions are made, the effect of crowd out government debt on private investment is greater than in conditions where there is a market system or at least less government policy.Contrary to the conventional view, no systematic relationships between real interest rates and private investment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Government Spending and the Transmission Channels of Their Effects on Macroeconomic Variables: A DSGE Approach
انوشیروان تقی پور هما اصفهانیانAbstract In the literature, it is emphasized on the role of government spending in business cycle of economic activities, especially in the developing countries where public investment alongside with other government tools uses for economic growth stimulation. However, MoreAbstract In the literature, it is emphasized on the role of government spending in business cycle of economic activities, especially in the developing countries where public investment alongside with other government tools uses for economic growth stimulation. However, the effect of government spending depends on how the spending is financed. Oil in the Iranian economy plays a significant role, so that more than 45% of the budget is directly financed by oil revenue. Therefore, oil plays a major role in macroeconomic variables fluctuations. The aim of this paper is that while explaining the business cycle behavior of the oil income, its relation with some relevant macroeconomic variables including government expenditures, investment, growth, inflation and money is examined as well. To end this, we use a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to explain the transmission channels of oil revenues effect on macroeconomic variables through the government budget, public capital stock and monetary base channels. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - هزینه رفاه شوک های خارجی و قاعده بهینه سیاستپولی برای اقتصاد ایران
سجاد برومند تیمور محمدی جمشید پژویان اسداله فرزین وش عباس معمار نژاد -
Open Access Article
22 - The Effect of Energy Price Shocks on Iran's Oil-centric Economy base on New-Keynesian Modeling Method and Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Equations
علی محمدی پور علی سلمانپور زنوز سید فخرالدین فخرحسینیExtensive subsidies and excessive energy consumption have necessitated the need to reform consumption pattern and price. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of energy carrier price reform on important macroeconomic variables and for this purpose, a small MoreExtensive subsidies and excessive energy consumption have necessitated the need to reform consumption pattern and price. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of energy carrier price reform on important macroeconomic variables and for this purpose, a small open New-Keynesian DSGE model has been calibrated and simulated for Iran. The results of impulse response functions analysis show that the detrimental effects on household consumption, enterprise investment, non-oil production and total output as a result of positive price shocks in energy carriers can negatively impact Iran's economy for at least 30 periods. A accelerated decline in investment over the course of nine periods and a return to a stable level over 25 periods can also be a crisis. Therefore, the need for complementary policies to encourage investment and counteract price increases, as well as the role of the government in efficient subsidies redistribution and infrastructure investment, can be extremely important. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - The role of stock market shocks on macroeconomic variables in the form of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model
Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani Babak Esmaili Morvarid Khajeh Vahid Mahboubi MatinAbstract The purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of stock market shock on macroeconomic variables with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, the data of the time period 1990-2021 with seasonal frequency MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of stock market shock on macroeconomic variables with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, the data of the time period 1990-2021 with seasonal frequency has been used. Modern financial systems usually include financing from the financial assets market in addition to financing the banking sector. The interaction between the stock market and aggregate activity has received much attention in the past decade. In this regard, traditionally, the stock price usually affects the stock market as the discounted current value of the expected stock profits. In this framework, stock prices are influenced by both production (through profits and dividends) and interest rates (through the rate at which future dividends are discounted). In this study, the capital market shock has an effect on the economy through the channel of consumption expenditures of households and investment expenditures of companies. The direct effects of stock price fluctuations on total spending have made the stock capital market known as a leading indicator in the economy. The obtained results indicated that the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the demand shock was more intense than the shock from the supply side, and only the variables of tax revenues and bank facilities showed a negative reaction to the demand shock in the conditions of the supply shock. Also, the amount of employment has shown a positive reaction in response to the shock on the supply and demand side in the capital market Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - نقش پویاییهای نرخ تورم در سیاست پولی ایران: یک مدل DSGE
یوسف حیاتی کیومرث سهیلی علیرضا عرفانی -
Open Access Article
25 - Investigating the effect of electronic receipt and payment tools on reducing government and bank costs
Behzad Alinejadi Ahmed Sarlak Cambys HejbarKianiAbstractToday To continue their economic life, financial institutions are required to adopt e-banking methods in order to be more competitive, reduce operating costs, increase profitability, and improve the quality of customer service. Electronic services and the develo MoreAbstractToday To continue their economic life, financial institutions are required to adopt e-banking methods in order to be more competitive, reduce operating costs, increase profitability, and improve the quality of customer service. Electronic services and the development of e-banking are a big step towards reducing costs, reducing government spending and even controlling cost. This study aims to investigate the effect of e-banking in reducing banking operating costs and reducing government spending by using a random dynamic general equilibrium and considering the economic sectors of households, enterprises, government and monetary authority and information of private and public banks. To study in the period of 1375-1396. The results indicate that the use of electronic payment and receipt tools will lead to further reductions in bank costs, as well as lower energy prices and government spending. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Optimal inflation rate measurement for minimizing economic inequality: The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach
Alireza Azizi Hashem Zare Abbas Aminifard Jalil Khodaparast ShiraziAbstractFair distribution of income in countries is one of the development indicators of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies for its improvement in order to identify the effect of effective factors on it. In this study, the importance MoreAbstractFair distribution of income in countries is one of the development indicators of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies for its improvement in order to identify the effect of effective factors on it. In this study, the importance of determining the optimal inflation rate with the aim of minimizing income inequality by using the randomized dynamic equilibrium method in Iran between 1997 and 2020 is discussed. The results of the research indicate that the inflation rate is optimized to be 3.74 percent, so that the increase or decrease of inflation of this amount will increase income inequality. Therefore, the government should target its inflation rate with the aim of attaining the minimum inequality, so that the probability of fluctuations (increase or decrease) in inequality will exist. Manuscript profile
Sanad
Sanad is a platform for managing Azad University publications
Links
Related Centers
Technical Support
Official pages
The rights to this website are owned by the Raimag Press Management System.
Copyright © 2021-2024