Identifying Key Factors Affecting Urban Prosperity with Futuristic Approach (Case Study: Tehran)

Subject Areas : Urban Futurology

zeynab alamati ¹ , alireza kaldi ² , mehrdad navabakhsh ³

1 - PhD student in Development Sociology; Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Professor of Sociology, Science and Research Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Professor of Sociology, Science and Research Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2022-05-28 Accepted : 2023-03-28 Published : 2023-02-20

Keywords: Uncertainty, Tehran, Urban Development, MICMAC, Futurism,

Abstract :

Challenges of modern urban life such as; Competition between cities and urban areas, urban sustainability, the need to seize opportunities and avoid threats in social and cultural developments, mass demographic change and environmental and social problems lead to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of tools Variety has become desirable to build the future.The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the key factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach. Using existing studies in the field of urban development, six indicators were selected and classified. The statistical population of the study is the city of Tehran and its statistical sample is 30 experts and specialists in urban and regional planning. By studying library resources, all the factors affecting the development of Tehran were studied and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, research findings were completed and based on them, a questionnaire was developed and the survey process began with the help of software ( MicMac) and with the interaction analysis method, data analysis and research scenarios were presented. According to the results of 4 factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were recognized as the first influential factors of the system. According to the scores of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of metropolitan development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability and the drivers that cause the most uncertainty. In order to present the future scenarios of Tehran development, it was determined that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic situation and poverty were selected as the most influential and uncertainty variables.