Designing a Model for Predicting the Sales Potential of Iranian Movies (Data-Driven Approach) in Order to Determine the Market Entry Strategy

Subject Areas : Strategic Management Researches

Babak Hamidia ¹ , Mohammad Masteri Farahani ² , Mohammad Javad Sohrabi ³ , Abbas Rahimi ⁴

1 - Assistant Professor of Imam Sadegh University, Tehran. Iran
2 - Student of Imam Sadegh University, Tehran. Iran
3 - Student of Imam Sadegh University, Tehran. Iran
4 - Student of Imam Sadegh University, Tehran. Iran

Received: 2022-06-02 Accepted : 2022-07-04 Published : 2022-08-23

Keywords: Forecast, Movie Sales Potential, Box Office Sales, Factors Affecting Iranian cinema demand, Market entry strategy,

Abstract :

Having a predictive mathematical model regarding the sales potential of movies before the marketing and screening of movies is one of the needs of many producers, Cinema owners, etc. In this research, based on a systematic process and mixed exploratory approach, first the factors affecting the sales potential of movies were calculated and classified by content analysis method and by selecting the content factors of the film, i.e., the factors affecting the probability of pre-marketing and screening; The status of each of these factors in the top 100 films of a decade of Iranian cinema was examined. The required data were extracted from the statistical yearbook of Iranian film and cinema sales and based on Shannon entropy method and based on real data of 100 popular Iranian films, model coefficients were extracted and finally, a mathematical model to calculate the sales potential of a film up to Extracted before the marketing phase. The results of this study indicate that the 4 main factors of director (with coefficient of 0.25), actor (with coefficient of 0.253), genre (with coefficient of 0.251) and technical quality of film (with coefficient of 0.246) and a sub-factor of film series (with extra score) affect the sales potential of a movie.

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