The Effect of Risk Dimensions on the Objectives of Construction Projects in Isfahan Municipality: An Integrated SEM and BBN Analysis

Subject Areas : Project Management

Amir Hossein Nadali Jelokhani ¹ , Mehdi Karbassian ² , Sayyed Rasool Agha Davood ³ , Abdul Majid Abdul Baghi ⁴

1 - PhD Candidate, Department of management, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran .Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Industry and Management, Shahroud University of Technology, Shahroud, Iran

Received: 2020-04-18 Accepted : 2020-08-23 Published : 2021-09-23

Keywords: Risk analysis, RBS, Project Risk Management, BBN, Municipal Construction Projects,

Abstract :

Population growth and the subsequent surge in urbanization has drastically increased the number of construction projects in metropolitan cities implementation and management of which may involve numerous ambiguous and unknown issues or risks that can impact project objectives depending on the specific project characteristics and municipal conditions. Thus, the purpose of the current applied descriptive correlational survey was to examine the extent to which components of risk failure structure can impact the goals of municipal construction projects including citizen satisfaction, cost, time, quality, range and safety using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The purposeful research sample comprised 45 managers, deputies, relevant officials and experts in Isfahan municipality who were consulted to identify the project risk dimensions during 2016 and 2018. A questionnaire was employed to collect the research data which were further analyzed using the project risk structure breakdown to classify and identify risks and matrices. Partial Least Squares Method of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was employed to validate the questionnaire data.  The simultaneous impact of risk dimensions on project goals was investigated using probable cause and effect modeling based on Bayesian Belief Model. The findings verified the significant positive impact of project risk components on the project objectives. The innovative characteristic of the current study was the integration of SEM and Bayesian BBN and application of error state analysis technique and risk effects in risk failure structure which can establish certainty concerning the analysis of risk dimensions and their relationship with precision of priorities in risk management process.

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