Efficiency of stochastic logistics model in predicting the population infected with HIV in Iran

Subject Areas : Statistics

Ramzan Rezaeyan ^{1 *} , seyyed Saleh Mohseni ² , Samira Ala ³ , sahebeh Aghababaeipour ⁴

1 - Assistant Professor in Department of mathematics and statistics, Islamic Azad University, Nour Branch
2 - Assistant Professor in Electrical Eng. Dept., Islamic Azad University, Nour Branch
3 - Department of Mathematics, Islamic Azad University, Nour Branch, Nour, Iran
4 - Islamic Azad University, Nour Branch

Received: 2022-06-06 Accepted : 2022-06-29 Published : 2024-05-20

Keywords: پیش بینی, ویروس ایدز, مدل لجستیک تصادفی, انتگرال ایتو,

Abstract :

The study of population growth and population forecasting is a major problem in biology. Since the growth rate is not completely known over time and depends on environmental factors that are completely random, then all biological populations (virus, humans, bacteria, etc.) have some kind of random behavior or noise. It is generally referred to as a random process. The purpose of this article is to predict the number of people living with HIV in Iran based on a random logistics model and compare it with a non-random (definitive) model. For a case study to predict the number of AIDS patients in Iran, we considered the population of patients during the years 1384 to 1394 and with the help of MATLAB program we simulated the number of patients for the coming years. Comparison of the obtained results with real values and the results of other models, shows the high accuracy and efficiency of the model.