Comparative study of foresight patterns globally applied in disaster management studies

Subject Areas : Futurology

Ardeshir Sayah Mofazali ¹ , Katayoun Jahangiri ² , Mohammad Rahim Eivazi ³

1 - Faculty member of the Institute for Humanities and Social Studies (Futures Studies Research Group) and Futures studies PhD student at Institute for Humanities and Social Studies
2 - Associate professor, health in disaster and emergencies department; school of health, safety and environment; Shahid Beheshti University of Medical science (Corresponding Author)
3 - Professor of Future Studies University of Imam Khomeini, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2015-05-26 Accepted : 2015-08-02 Published : 2018-01-21

Keywords: Foresight- disaster management,

Abstract :

Identifying the future is one of the main concerns of disaster managers to properly prepare for future circumstances and prevention of events that caused surprises. In this regards, foresight methodologies is provided a systematic set of concepts and patterns to ensures the accuracy of outcomes of futures studies. Despite various efforts in developing foresight patterns in disaster management, the patterns have diversity in forms and contents. The main objective of this paper is to identify how these patterns classified globally in the past decade. In this regard, the famous patterns of disaster management foresight gathered and they are compared with each other. The methodology used in this paper in terms of data collection and literature review is qualitative. This research has an applied research orientation and seeks to provide a specific classification to clarify the application of foresight patterns in disaster management. In this article nine foresight pattern in disaster management were identified and studied comparatively. The results of this study in shown in comparative tables. These results signify that there will be a great evolution in foresight patterns in disaster management by a delays according to the Technology Foresight previous path, it is going the same path now. In this regard, using futures studies tools discretely, using variety of approaches and applying strategic foresight in disaster management just denote that there are no axis methods in this field identified yet.