Modeling & Analysis of Future Scenarios in Iranian Banking System

Subject Areas : Futurology

Ali Rezaeian ¹ , Hamidreza Fartokzadeh ² , Meisam Rajabi Nahouji ³ , Nima Lotfi Foroushani ⁴

1 - Professor, Public Management Dept., Management & Accounting School, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Management Dept., Management School, Malek Ashtar University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Ph.D. in Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Northern Worker, Next to Nasr Bridge, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran
4 - PhD Student, Management & Accounting School, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author) [e-mail]

Received: 2018-07-18 Accepted : 2018-09-24 Published : 2019-01-21

Keywords: Modeling, Scenario analysis, policy making, Iranian Banking System,

Abstract :

The present study is a descriptive-analytical study aimed at mapping probable states in the future of the banking system of Iran. In the process of doing this research, at first, eight main actors, including government, parliament, judiciary, central bank, governmental banks, private banks, microcredit customers and large-scale customers of banks, were interviewed. There were two influential actors in creating the future scenarios of the banking system (government and large-scale customers of banks i.e. financial resources applicants). The major options for each decision to create the future were examined. Thereafter, possible options and priorities were determined. At the end, the stability of probable situations were analyzed and different policies for each of the situations were proposed.