Cross-Impact Balances and clustering of Factors Effecting Autonomous Vehicle by Foresight Approach

Subject Areas : Futurology

Hamid Hanifi ¹ , Adel Azar ^{2 *} , Manouchehr Manteghi ³

1 - Department of Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - University Complex of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2022-07-21 Accepted : 2025-01-04 Published : 2025-08-23

Keywords: Autonomous Vehicle Technology, Driverless Car, Technology Foresight, Cross-Impact Balances (CIB), MICMAC software.,

Abstract :

Context: Fundamentally, movement is ensured by three components of the system such as: vehicle, driver and transportation infrastructure. Overtime, vehicles and infrastructure have improved significantly through technological development. However, the only constant component of this system, which is still risky in driving due to human limitations is the human being. The solution proposed by scientists in this field to solve this component is the use of autonomous vehicles. Objective: In this research, an attempt has been made to analyze the Cross-Impact Balances and clustering of factors effecting autonomous vehicle, so that by focusing on the most important ones, before the import of this technology or even its development in Iran, the necessary preparations have been made. Research method: according to the paradigm of the problem, the qualitative research methodology, the method of conducting it is foresight, the research population, experts in the automotive industry, the sample was randomly selected. Data collection tools were interviews. The software used was MICMAC software. Analysis of software output graphs was also done according to its standard. Findings: Factors affecting autonomous vehicles were clustered. For example, product technology factors, safety technology factors, and economic factors in Iran are effective factors that have a high influence and a low dependence on autonomous vehicle technology. Conclusion and Discussion: With the clustering created in the factors affecting autonomous vehicles, it is possible to make appropriate plans for implementation of autonomous vehicle technology so that we get the most benefit from this technology.