Using an approach based on financial forecasting and soft econometrics for the future research of systems behavior

Subject Areas : Futurology

NABI OMIDI ¹ (Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2023-01-30 Accepted : 2023-08-10 Published : 2023-11-22

Keywords: financial engineering, Forecasting methods, econometrics,

Abstract :

Today, forecasting methods based on soft econometrics as well as financial forecasting methods are used in various systems, one of the aspects of using forecasting methods is to use it to predict the behavior of general systems and It is a quote. In this research, using the statistics of traffic injuries referred to forensic medicine in Golestan province between April 1374 and March 1401, which were referred to forensic medicine in Golestan province, and using artificial neural network, which is one of the most advanced methods of forecasting and future research In the field of health systems, the number of injured people has been predicted for the 12 months ending in 1402. Also, the accuracy of this method has been measured using the average percentage of the absolute value of the error. The results of the research showed that the artificial neural network with 12 inputs, one output and 5 hidden layers is suitable for predicting the injured referred to Golestan forensic medicine,. The predicted values showed that the number of traffic injuries in Golestan province is increasing. Due to the high accuracy of the neural network in this research, this method can be used as a basis for future research in accidents. The upward trend in the number of traffic injuries in Golestan province indicates the need to review decisions in the field of transportation in this province.