Future studies of the professional development of school principals in 2025 Horizon with a scenario Planning approach
Subject Areas : Futurology
Sadegh Maleki Avarsin
1
,
Amir Yousefi
2
,
Behnam Talebi
3
1 - Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Education Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz. Iran.
2 - Ph.D. Graduate in Educational Administration, Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Education Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz. Iran.
3 - Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Education Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz. Iran.
Keywords: Future studies, professional development, School principals, scenario planning,
Abstract :
Abstract Background: Today, achieving professional development of school principals is one of the most important goals of education in all developed countries and most developing countries. Objective: The aim of this study was to provide Optimal scenarios for the professional development of primary school principals in 2025 Horizon northwestern provinces of the Iran. Method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on new methods of Future studies, analysis and exploration, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative models in the form of documentary and survey methods and in two stages of identifying key drivers using software Mic Mac is based on the method of Cross Impact Analysis and presenting the Optimal scenarios using the scenario Wizard software. The statistical population included professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational Administration in the northwestern provinces of the Iran. The sample size was 12 people which was continued by purposeful sampling and snowball sampling until data saturation. findings: the results of the application of cross - impact analysis method showed that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of principals. By preparing the basket of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations are defined for 15 factors. Conclusion: With the formation of matrix 45*45 and with the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 11 strong scenarios, 29 plausible scenarios and 39 weak scenarios were extracted.