Analysis of Environmental Trends affecting the future of The Organization for Researching and Composing (SAMT) in the next 10 years
Subject Areas : Futurology
Zahra Gharagozlo Farhad
1
*
,
farhad nazarizadeh
2
1 - PhD student of Future Studies, Faculty of Industry, Ivanki University, Semnan, Iran
2 - PhD in Future studies, Faculty of Engineering, Ivanki University, Semnan, Iran
Keywords: Futurology, The future of Organizations, Effective Trends, Trend Analysis,
Abstract :
Future with uncertainty and an agitated and complicated environment, needs dynamic, intelligent and futurist organizations. So, environmental scanning and observation of future evolutions is from necessities of each organization including SAMT organization. Current research tries to identify trends influential in SAMT organization future in next 10 years. Library method has been used in subject background and literature, Delphi method has been utilized in identifying effective trends and morphology analysis has been applied in results analysis. Statistical population were 23 experienced managers in SAMT organization. Subset trends of economic, cultural, political and technology domains and key uncertainties from experts' viewpoint were identified in three stages. Indicators of trend importance amount and trend occurrence certainty were used in identifying trends and key uncertainties. According to findings, increase of marketing importance and ever increasing growth of new technologies in the field of edition and publication have high importance and low uncertainty. Free access to up to date educational resources, increase of private sector activity in the field of edition, active presence of universities and research centers in the affair of producing university textbooks and role of effective interaction and relation in allocation of public budget are also from trends that can be influential in future of SAMT organization. In a comparison among economic, cultural, political and technology domains, economic and technology trends and political trends respectively have the most and lowest effect in future of organization.