Scenarios for the development of Iran's renewable energy on the horizon of 2040 with future study approach

Subject Areas : Futurology

Kiarash Fartash ¹ , Mohammad Sadegh Khayyatian Yazdi ² , Amir Ghorbani ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
2 - Assistant Professor, Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 - MSc in Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2020-05-27 Accepted : 2021-05-17 Published : 2022-02-20

Keywords: Iran, Scenario Planning, Future study approach, Renewable energy,

Abstract :

Background: One of the main problems and concerns of today's world is the termination of fossil fuel resources as the most important current energy source in the world; for this reason, renewable energy has been considered as an alternative to fossil fuels.Objective: The aim of this study is to formulate scenarios for the development of renewable energy in Iran with future study approach.Methods: Based on the purpose, this research is an application that has collected information using qualitative-exploratory methods. We used interviews and expert panels for data gathering. In this study, the statistical population of managers and experts are knowledgeable and specialized in the field of energy, especially renewable energy, which according to the type of information required to conduct research, non-probabilistic sampling has been used.Findings: A panel of experts was formed and the driving forces were identified. In order to determine the main drivers, two indicators of importance and uncertainty were used. According to the indicators of importance and uncertainty, the two driving forces of "emerging technologies" and "green and sustainable economy" were selected. Four scenarios were developed: "Environmental sustainability with green gold", "Temporary and unsustainable rise towards sustainability", "Productivity with black gold" and "Continuation of the current trend and the sinister cycle of the black disaster".Conclusion: At the end of the scenarios compiled with the background, it was compared and analyzed to what extent the proposed scenarios of the present research are in line with the findings of those researchers.