Analytic Scenarios of the Future of Iranian Banking: Combining Capabilities of Knowledge Absorptive Capacity and Corporate Foresight

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mahdi Joneidi Jafari ^{1 *} , Farhad Darvishi ² , Safar Fazli ³

1 - Ph.D. in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University. Qazvin, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
3 - Associate Professor of Management and Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Received: 2019-11-20 Accepted : 2020-11-18 Published : 2020-11-21

Keywords: "Corporate Foresight", "Knowledge Absorptive Capacity", "Future of Banking Industry",

Abstract :

Objective: The purpose of this article is to answer the question: What are future scenarios of the Iranian banking industry by combining the capabilities of knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight? In this article, we have reviewed the future of banking industry, knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight adopting both process and content (as a capability and ability) approaches; in addition, the components and dimensions of corporate foresight have been investigated from a content perspective. Methods: The research is practical in terms of purpose and cross-sectional in time. Using the tools of library and fuzzy Delphi methods data was collected from academic and industry experts (15 experts) and it was analyzed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) techniques and the Micmack software. Finding: The results suggest that performance can be enhanced by combining the capabilities of knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight. Finally, by combination of the two capabilities, four possible scenarios, including the desired Ka’aba, the center of calmness, the revelation of magnificence and the wingless ascension, are outlined and analyzed.