evaluation of the country 's employment using okun equation

Subject Areas :

farajollah cheraghpoor ¹ , mahdei fadaei ^{2 *} , farzad kareimi ³

1 - Doctoral student of Management Department, Dahaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dahaghan, Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)
3 - Member of the academic staff of Mobarakeh Azad University

Received: 2023-12-19 Accepted : 2024-09-11 Published : 2024-11-06

Keywords: employment , gross domestic product , labor market , okun law,

Abstract :

Objective: To test the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and employment in the Iranian economy based on Okun’s Law.

Research Methodology: This study analyzes time-series data of Iran’s GDP and employment from 1991 to 2022 using regression analysis (linear, quadratic, and exponential models).

Findings: The analysis reveals a positive and significant correlation between GDP movement and the employment situation in Iran.

Originality/Scientific Value Added: By empirically testing Okun’s Law on recent Iranian data, this research provides strong evidence for policymakers to focus on pro-employment economic growth strategies and emphasizes the importance of human capital as a key factor for future growth.

References:

- مداح و فرهادی.1395. "بررسی رفتار رشد اقتصادی و بیکاری با تأکید بر قانون اوکان"مجله ي بررسي هاي آمار رسمي ايران، شماره ي 2، پاييز و زمستان 1395 ، صص 189
- سرتیپ نیا ابوذر، بررسی چگونگی و چرایی رشد بدون اشتغال در اقتصاد ایران طی سال های 1384 – 1390، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی اقتصادی شماره 26) 117
- سرورزاده سيدكوروش, محمدي حميد, & دهباشي وحيد. عوامل موثر اقتصادي، اجتماعي و بودجه هاي عمراني دولت بر مهاجرت روستائيان در ايران.رفاه اجتماعی 13(48) . صص311-326
-رضوی مهدی، مشرفی رسام، تحلیل دینامیکی اقتصادی ایران طی سال های بعد از انقلاب تا 1382،فصلنامه پژوهشاهی ایران،شماره 18، بهار 13833# --Adachi, Hideyuki. "Economic Growth and Unemployment: Theoretical Foundations of Okun's Law (Mathematical Economics)." 1557 (2007): 1-13.‏
-Adanu, K. (2005). A Cross-Province Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient for Canada. Applied Economics. 37, 561-570.
- Al-Habees, M. A., & Abu Rumman, M. (2012). The relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan and some Arab countries. World Applied Science Journal, 18(5), 673-680.
- Andonova, D. U., & Petrovska, M. (2018). Disaggregating Okun’s law: A case- study forMacedonia (Working PaperNo. 8). https:// www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/204623/1/1067687262.pdf
- Bhalotra. 1998 "The puzzle of jobless growth in Indian manufacturing." Oxford isticsbulletin of economics and stat.32-5): 1(60
-BABAMOV Andrej. EXAMINING OKUN’S LAW VALIDITY IN NORTH MACEDONIA (2010Q1–2020Q4)
-Bierens, H. J., & Broersma, L. (1993). The relation between unemployment and interest rate: some international evidence. Econometric reviews, 12(2), 217
-Bilan, Y., Mishchuk, H., Samoliuk, N., & Mishchuk, V. (2020). Gender discrimination and its links with compensations and benefits practices in enterprises. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 8(3), 189-203.‏
-Bilbao-Ubillos, J., Alsasua, J. L., Intxaurburu, G., & Ullibarri-Arce, M. (2018). Labour market regulations and high quality employment in EU-15 countries. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 31(3), 207-226
--Draskovic, V., Pupavac, J., Delibasic, M., & Kołtun, L. (2021). Employment in Croatia: Insights into the past and the future. Journal of International Studies, 14(1).‏
-DÖNMEZ, Burcu, and İbrahim Halil SUGÖZÜ. "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER OKUN'S LAW: A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON EU COUNTRIES." Reforma . 2022
- Fallon, P. R. and R. E. Lucas (1993). "Job security regulations and the dynamic demand for industrial labor in India and Zimbabwe Journal of development Economics. 40.2.241.275 - Fridman, Leonid M. "An averaging approach to chattering." IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 46.8 (2001): 1260-1265.
-Louail, Bilal, and Djamel Benarous. "Relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates in the algerian economy: Application of Okun’s law during 1991– 2019." Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies 12.1 (2021): 71-85.
- Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin, et al. "The impact of GDP and its expenditure components on unemployment within BRICS countries: Evidence of Okun’s law from aggregate and disaggregated approaches." Sage Open 11.2 (2021): 21582440211023423.
-Harris, R., & Silverstone, B. (2001). Testing for asymmetry in Okun’s Law: A cross-country comparison. Economics Bulletin, 5, 1–13.
- Izyumov, A. and J. Vahaly (2002). "The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Does Economics of PlanningEconomies: 317): 4(35
- Karamanis, Kostas, Beneki Ch, and Marilou Ioakimidis. "Greek labour market: The evaluation of minimum wage and unemployment during the period 2000-2017." Journal of International Studies 11.4 (2018).
‏ - Kołodziejczak, W. (2020). Employment and gross value added in agriculture versus other sectors of the European Union economy. Sustainability, 12(14), 5518.
- Levin, Henry M. "More than just test scores." Prospects 42 (2012): 269-284.
-Malec karal, Gross Domestic Product Development and Employment in Egypt (2000-(2013) ,Financial Issue Vol 6 • Issue 1 . 2016
- Marx, K., & Engels, F. (1990). Capital (Vol. I). London, UK: Penguin Classics.
-Maris, M. (2019). Structural and productivity shift of industries in Slovakia and Czech Republic: A comparative study. Journal of International Studies, 12(1), 313-323.‏
-Okun, A.M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. Reprinted as Cowles Foundation Paper, 190, 1-7. measurementan-significance-p0190.pdf
- Podgórska, Joanna, and Małgorzata Leśniowska-Gontarz. "Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and GDP in Poland and Spain in the Years 2002–2015." Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses 14.3 (2016): 59-67.
- Podgórska, Wioletta. "Prediction of drop size distributions in stirred tanks equipped with radial-and axial flow impellers." Chemical and Process Engineering 30.1 (2009): 181-197.
- Ramoni-Perazzi, J., & Orlandoni-Merli, G. (2019). Labor elasticity of growth by sector and department in Colombia: The importance of the agricultural employment elasticity. Agroalimentaria, 25(48), 19-34.
-Rochon, L. P., & Seccareccia, M. (Eds.). (2013). Monetary economies of production: Banking and financial circuits and the role of the state. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
-Stockhammer, E., Guschanski, A., & Köhler, K. (2014). Unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market institutions in the Great Recession. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 94.‏
-Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., Giedraitis, V. R., Cheberyako, O., & Nikytenko, D. (2020). Gender question: Econometric answer. Economics & Sociology, 13(4), 241-255