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    • List of Articles Hosseyn Karami

      • Open Access Article

        1 - Weekly crude oil price forecasting by hybrid support vector machine model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
        Shapor Mohammadi Reza Raeie Hossein karami
        Fluctuations in crude oil prices in addition to affect the economy of the exporting countries, is one of the sources of disruption in oil-dependent economy. Always predict the price and volatility has been of the challenges facing traders in oil markets and price foreca More
        Fluctuations in crude oil prices in addition to affect the economy of the exporting countries, is one of the sources of disruption in oil-dependent economy. Always predict the price and volatility has been of the challenges facing traders in oil markets and price forecast is raised as an imperative and functional however, should be noted forecasts that will take place in more accurate and less error than the observed actual results. In order to predict the weekly price of Brent crude oil as an oil indicator given the difficulty of accurately identifying linear and nonlinear models in economic and financial time series from combining Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) by the assumption that the time series have a linear pattern and support vector machine (SVM) which has great potential in modeling nonlinear model is used to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Given two paired comparison performance criteria of root mean square error test (RMSE) and the mean absolute magnitude percentage error (MDAPE) which are resulting from the predicted values ​​and actual values ​​for each model, this indicates that in most cases the hybrid model provide smaller errors in predicting the future price of crude oil as compared to the individual applications of autoregressive integrated moving average models and the support vector machine. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Examining the potential of the energy exchange in performance resistive economic policies and transparency in capital market information
        Reza Raei Hosseyn Karami
        Abstract: Given the importance of the share of oil revenues in the budget of oil-rich countries, the change of Iranian economic approach from the export of raw materials and natural resources towards the export of products and technical services in line with resistive e More
        Abstract: Given the importance of the share of oil revenues in the budget of oil-rich countries, the change of Iranian economic approach from the export of raw materials and natural resources towards the export of products and technical services in line with resistive economy polices has been taken into consideration as a significant matter. In order to achieve this change of approach, the formation of Iranian energy exchange as the fourth capital market exchange was necessary. Besides, the existence of huge reserves of petroleum and natural gas resources as well as appropriate potentials such as powerful refinery and petrochemical complexes that provide the possibility of processing, refining, and conversion of underground sources to oil and higher valued products will significantly contribute to the realization and globalization of resistive economy paradigm which relies on competition and concentration on strengths and opportunities ahead. Furthermore, the exploration of infrastructures needed for the formation of energy exchange and the feasibility study of Iranian capital market conditions compared to international energy exchanges and the establishment of Iranian Energy Exchange will pave the way for the introduction of Iranian financial oil market in the form of the first energy exchange in the Persian Gulf region and make it possible for Iran to become a huge center of energy economy in the international arena. The possibility of liberalization, removal of monopoly, transparency, and price discovery in the competitive environment of the market supply and demand will result in information transparency for cost and sales prices of domestic products and exports of refinery and petrochemical entities listed in the capital market. Furthermore, such information transparency on the performance of firms that involved in oil and gas industry will provide a secure environment for actual and legal investors to make informed investment decisions and thus to earn good returns. Finally, as the findings of the present study suggest; currently it is possible to introduce Iranian energy exchange as a reference for the discovery of prices of crude oil and those of petroleum and petrochemical products in the future. Manuscript profile