Weekly crude oil price forecasting by hybrid support vector machine model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge

Shapor Mohammadi ¹ , Reza Raeie ² , Hossein karami ^{3 *}

1 - Associate Professor, Financial Management, Tehran University
2 - Professor, Financial Management, Tehran University
3 - Master of Financial Management, Tehran University

Received: 2015-01-06 Accepted : 2015-04-18 Published : 2015-04-18

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Movi, support vector machine (SVM), Hybrid Model, stationary,

Abstract :

Fluctuations in crude oil prices in addition to affect the economy of the exporting countries, is one of the sources of disruption in oil-dependent economy. Always predict the price and volatility has been of the challenges facing traders in oil markets and price forecast is raised as an imperative and functional however, should be noted forecasts that will take place in more accurate and less error than the observed actual results. In order to predict the weekly price of Brent crude oil as an oil indicator given the difficulty of accurately identifying linear and nonlinear models in economic and financial time series from combining Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) by the assumption that the time series have a linear pattern and support vector machine (SVM) which has great potential in modeling nonlinear model is used to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Given two paired comparison performance criteria of root mean square error test (RMSE) and the mean absolute magnitude percentage error (MDAPE) which are resulting from the predicted values ​​and actual values ​​for each model, this indicates that in most cases the hybrid model provide smaller errors in predicting the future price of crude oil as compared to the individual applications of autoregressive integrated moving average models and the support vector machine.