Development of an Integrated CA-LR-Markov-Fuzzy Model for Optimal Site Selection of Sustainable Urban Development: An Environmental Criteria-Based Approach in Gilan Province
Subject Areas : Land-use planningمیثم جعفری 1 * , Delaram Sikaroudi 2 , Sahar Ghiyas 3
1 -
2 - Human Environment and Sustainable Development Research Center, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
3 - Human Environment and Sustainable Development Research Center, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
Keywords: Sustainable urban development, Environmental criteria, Integrated modeling, Optimal site selection, Cellular automata, Gilan Province,
Abstract :
The phenomenon of uncontrolled urban sprawl, as one of the most critical challenges of sustainable development in the 21st century, imposes irreversible consequences on natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and the quality of natural resources. This research was conducted with the aim of developing an innovative framework for optimal site selection of urban development based on environmental criteria in Gilan Province. An intelligent integration of four advanced modeling approaches including cellular automata, logistic regression, Markov chain, and fuzzy logic was designed and implemented in the form of an integrated CA-LR-Markov-Fuzzy model. After identifying 23 important environmental criteria in four categories of physiographic, ecological, hydrological, and climatic-social, these criteria were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a survey of 40 experts. The validation results of the integrated model showed excellent performance with an ROC index of 0.848, Kappa coefficient of 0.79, and overall accuracy of 84%, placing it within the excellent performance range. Based on the site selection results, 18.3% of the province’s area (2,570 square kilometers) was classified as highly suitable, 24.7% (3,468 square kilometers) as suitable, and 31.2% (4,381 square kilometers) as conservation areas. The model predictions indicate increases of 46% in urban development by 2037. Comparison of three scenarios - conservation, physical, and economic-social - revealed that the physical scenario with a score of 0.78 provides the best balance between development and environmental protection. The results of this research provide a comprehensive scientific framework for decision-making in sustainable urban planning.
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