Application of Future Research Approach in the Feasibility of Objectives of Urban Development Plans (Case Study: Noorabad Mamasani Master Plan

Subject Areas :

ahmad rezaee ¹ , Marzieh Mogholi ^{2 *} , mohammadebrahim afifi ³

1 - Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Larestan Unit, Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran
2 - faculty member Department of Geography, Larestan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran
3 - faculty member Department of Geography, Larestan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran

Received: 2022-07-25 Accepted : 2022-12-05 Published : 2022-12-05

Keywords: scenario planning, Noorabad City, Future Research, comprehensive plan, : urban development plans,

Abstract :

Comprehensive urban plans, as pivital management tool on a city-wide scale, have faced problems in the previous decades, which have made it difficult to achieve their goals. One critical method in recognizing the success rate of urban development projects is to evaluate them in line with the principles of sustainable development. Addressing this issue is considered as an tool in measuring the success and feasibility of the proposals of the comprehensive plan and helps the planners to better understand the problems when preparing and compiling comprehensive plans. We aim to evaluate the feasibility of the main and effective proposals in the comprehensive plan of Noorabad Mamasani city using the application of futurology approach. The study is practical and has been conducted in terms of exploratory method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. Driving forces have been prioritized according to the experts' opinion, using future research software (Micmac) based on the degree of importance and uncertainty. Wizard scenario software was used to write possible scenarios. Ten factors were identified in the column of direct influence, which played the greatest role in the realization of the master plan of Noorabad city. In the case of the obtained scenarios, the unfavorable situation prevails over the favorable role. Out of 100%, about 20% of the cases were optimistic, 22% static and 58% pessimistic. The best scenario is scenario no.1