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    • List of Articles رضا راعی

      • Open Access Article

        1 - Evaluation of Residential Project With Option to Delay
        Hanzaleh Fendereski Shapour Mohammadi Ali Foroush Bastani Reza Raei
        Real estate investment are characterized by low liquidity and irreversible cost. Real Estate industry is one of the most important industry in occupation. Moreover, its production has the biggest weight in family portfolio.These are important characteristics of real est More
        Real estate investment are characterized by low liquidity and irreversible cost. Real Estate industry is one of the most important industry in occupation. Moreover, its production has the biggest weight in family portfolio.These are important characteristics of real estate markets. Real estate industry has cyclical trend. In recession, investor delay their investment. Traditional capital Budgeting models such as Net Present Value are base on fix assumption and condition. They ignore management flexibility. In this paper residential Projects are evaluated with real options (option to delay) by Black-Scholes and Binomial Lattice Model.These model values managerial flexibility. Experimental results show that project Evaluation with real options outperforms the traditional models such as NPV. This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous- time stochastic processes. According to optimal investment timing proposed by MC Donlad and Siegel, time to start this Project is 9/5 years from now. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Investigating the impact of financial distress risk on stock prices crashes
        marjan izadkhah reza raei saeed falahpor
        The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of financial distress risk on the fall in the stock prices of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this research, statistical data of 195 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the yea More
        The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of financial distress risk on the fall in the stock prices of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this research, statistical data of 195 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2015-2019 have been used, and multiple regression using the panel data method has been used to analyze the data. To measure the variable of financial distress risk, Merton's distance to default index and to measure the fall of stock prices, four methods of risk period of stock price fall, negative skewness of stock returns, maximum sigma and low-to-high volatility have been used, as well as asset return ratio variables. leverage ratio, ratio of market value to book value and company size have been used as control variables. The results of the research show that there is a positive and significant relationship between financial distress risk and falling stock prices. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        3 - Presenting a market direction prediction model for gold coin trades in Iran’s Commodity Exchange market using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm
        Soheil Zoghi Reza Raei Saeed Falahpor
        In recent years, deep learning neural networks have been recognized as powerful tools for solving complex problems. Deep learning is a subfield of artificial intelligence in which complex problems with numerous parameters and inputs are modeled based on a set of algorit More
        In recent years, deep learning neural networks have been recognized as powerful tools for solving complex problems. Deep learning is a subfield of artificial intelligence in which complex problems with numerous parameters and inputs are modeled based on a set of algorithms. In this research, a new framework of deep learning is presented. Using wavelet transform, stacked auto-encoders, and the Long Short-Term Memory or LSTM, we predict the market direction in the future contracts of gold coins of Iran's Commodity Exchange market. The input data is first denoised using the wavelet transformer in the proposed method. Then, using the stacked auto-encoder, the indicators influencing the market direction are identified. Ultimately, these indicators are given as input to the LSTM architecture to predict the market direction. Proposing several new technical indicators to increase the accuracy of the proposed model, adjusting the parameters of the utilized algorithms, including LSTM, for this problem, and suggesting a trading strategy to achieve appropriate profitability are among the contributions of the present study. Investigations reveal that the proposed method outperforms other approaches and achieves higher accuracy and efficiency. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        4 - Predicting cash holdings using supervised machine learning algorithms in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE)
        Saeid Fallahpour Reza Raei Negar Tavakoli
        According to the 22 selected features (which are checked during the research) with machine learning methods, this study predicts the cash holding of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. 201 companies were investigated from 1396 to 1400. Multiple linear regre More
        According to the 22 selected features (which are checked during the research) with machine learning methods, this study predicts the cash holding of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. 201 companies were investigated from 1396 to 1400. Multiple linear regression, K-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting algorithm and multilayer neural networks are used for prediction. The results show that the multiple linear regression methods provide the k-nearest neighbor of the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the high error. Meanwhile, more complex algorithms, especially support vector regression, achieve higher accuracy; The findings indicated that by reducing to 15 variables, machine learning methods, especially K-nearest neighbor, provided better results. Based on the paired sample t-test, support vector regression has a better performance than other supervised machine learning algorithms except decision tree. Also, the most important variables were company size and capital expenditures (CapEx). The World Uncertainty Index and inflation were also relatively important variables; Therefore, by using the support vector regression algorithm, we may predict the amount of cash to a significant extent. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        5 - Estimation of Value at Risk with Extreme Value Theory approach and using Stochastic Differential Equation
        Amir Shafiee reza raei Hossein Abdoh Tabrizi saeed falahpor
        The occurrence of financial crises in recent decades has caused a lot of damage to the economy as well as economic enterprises in many countries. The Extreme Value Approach is a new approach to the phenomenon of financial crisis, which has been able to analyze the event More
        The occurrence of financial crises in recent decades has caused a lot of damage to the economy as well as economic enterprises in many countries. The Extreme Value Approach is a new approach to the phenomenon of financial crisis, which has been able to analyze the events that are less likely to occur but the damage caused by them is significant. In this study, we use the Extreme Value theory and Stochastic differential equations to find a new method for estimating the more precisely the value at risk. For this purpose, after estimating the parameters of the Stochastic differential equations, which includes the geometric Brownian motion, the geometric Brownian motion with the jump, the nonlinear GARCH model, and the Heston model, simulate the Monte Carlo simulations of future paths and then use peak over threshold approach, to estimate the value We at risk. The results of the simultaneous use of Stochastic differential equations and Extreme value theory ​​are compared with historical simulations and variance-covariance approaches for value at risk. The results of Back-test techniques on value at risk indicate the superiority of the Heston model in estimation of value at risk. Manuscript profile