Financial stability, uncertainty of monetary policy and economic activities of the country

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

MOHAMMADREZA PEZESHKI ¹ , مرجان marjan دامن کشیدهdamankeshideh ^{2 *} , Aliasghar Esmaeilnia gatabi ³

1 - Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran branch
2 - عضو هیئت علمی و مدیر گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی
3 - Assistant Professor in Faculty of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch

Received: 2024-08-23 Accepted : 2024-11-11 Published : 2025-01-05

Keywords: financial stability, monetary policy uncertainty, economic activities of the country, structural vector autoregression ,

Abstract :

In the present study, a non-linear analysis of the relationship between financial stability, monetary policy uncertainty and the economic activities of the country with the cost model of the list price of Ball and Menkiu by using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) method is performed based on the frequency of annual data during the period of 1990-2022. according to the estimation results; It was found that the effect of the oil price impulse on the GDP was positive, but its effect disappears from the third and fourth period onwards, which shows the short-term effect of oil revenues on production. The effect of monetary stimulus on production for the country initially has a negative effect and then its effect disappears. The impact of the oil price impulse on the facilities granted in the country has been negative, which can also be caused by the increase in imports to the country due to the increase in oil prices and inflation control, which has been lost since the fourth period. The effect of monetary impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector is positive in the country as well, which can be considered effective from the channel of increasing the foreign assets of the Central Bank and consequently increasing the growth of the monetary base and liquidity. Among other important reaction functions, we can mention the impact of production impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector, which has a positive effect in the 

References:

• پدرام، مهدی، صفرزاده، اسماعیل، بیانیف نسترن. (1398). مقاله پژوهشی: اثر نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر کارایی مانده اعتبارات بانک‌ها در ایران. سیاست گذاری پیشرفت اقتصادی، 7(2)، 57-82.
• جلایی اسفندآبادی؛ سید عبدالمجید و انصاری نسب، مسلم. (1395). بررسی ادوار تجاری حقیقی در اقتصاد ایران با تاکید بر عوامل موثر بر شکاف تولید. اقتصاد مقداری (بررسیهای اقتصادی), 13(3), 85-109.
• سعادت مهر، مسعود، غفاری، هادی. (1398). بررسی مقایسه‌ای اثرگذاری سیاست‌های پولی و مالی بر اقتصاد ایران در قالب یک الگوی DSGE. دوفصلنامۀ علمی مطالعات و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، 6(1)، 51-74.
• صادق پور، سولماز و حیدری، حسن و محسنی زنوزی، سید جمال الدی.(1400). بررسی اثر شوک های پولی و مالی در بخش واقعی اقتصاد ایران با لحاظ سپرده های قرض الحسنه بانکی در چارچوب یک مدل DSGE، ۱(۸)، ۱۱۴-۸۹.
• غلامی حیدرانی، لیلا؛ رنج پور، رضا و فلاحی، فیروز. (۱۳۹۸). بررسي ارتباط بين چرخه هاي سهام و چرخه هاي تجاري در اقتصاد ايران؛ رويكرد شاخص¬هاي سرريز. فصلنامه علمي، پژوهش هاي رشد و توسعه اقتصادي, (۱۱)۴۲, ۱۰۹-۱۳۰.
• گلی، یونس، دل انگیزان، سهراب و فلاحتی، علی. (1398). برآورد سهم تکانه های کارا در نوسانات رشد اقتصادی ایران (رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. تحقیقات مدل سازی اقتصادی, 10(38), 95-128.
• مهرگان، نادر؛ عباسیان، عزت اله و عیسی زاده، سعید و فرجی، ابراهیم. (1396). بررسی شوک های واقعی و نوسان های تولید اقتصاد ایران. پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی, 8(29 ), 17-30.
• مهرآرا، محسن؛ برخورداری، سجاد و ابراهیم زادگان، هه ژار. (1399). تاثیر قیمت دارایی های مالی و حقیقی بر سیکل های تجاری در ایران: رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال هموار. پژوهش های رشد و توسعه پایدار (پژوهشهای اقتصادی), 20(1 ), 105-128.
• Algozhina, A. (2022). Monetary policy rule, exchange rate regime, and fiscal policy cyclicality in a developing oil economy. Energy Economics, 112, 106126.‏
• Ahmed, F & Kousar, Sh & Pervaiz,, A & Shabbir, A (2021), Do Institutional Quality and Financial Development Affect Sustainable Economic Growth? Evidence from South Asian Countries, Borsa Istanbul Review, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.03.005.
• Ahmed Boussaidi (2015):” THE IMPACT OF GOVERNANCE MECHANISMS ON TAX AGGRESSIVENESS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TUNISIAN CONTEXT” Asian Economic and Social Society. All rights reserved ISSN (P): 2309-8295, ISSN (E): 2225-4226 Volume 5, Issue 1, 2015, pp. 1-12
• Aslaksen, S. (2010). Oil and democracy - More than a cross-country correlation? Journal of Peace Research, 47(4); 421–431 • Bhattacharyya, S. and Hodler, R. (2010). Natural resources, democracy and corruption. European Economic Review, 54(4); 608-621.
• Busse, M. and Gröning, S. (2011). The resource curse revisited: Governance and natural resources. Hamburg Institute of International Economics, (HWWI paper 106), Available at: hwwi rohindex.de/uploads/tx.../HWWI_Research_Paper_106.pdf
• Carbonnier, G., Wagner, N. and Brugger, F. (2011). The impact of resource-dependence and governance on sustainable development. (CCDP Working Paper), Available at: graduateinstitute.ch/.../Working_Paper_8_Web%20version%202.pdf.
• Cavalcanti, T., Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M. (2011). Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(1); 305– 318.
• Daniele, V. (2011). Natural resources and the “quality” of economic development. The Journal of Development Studies, 46(4); 545-573.
• Emara, N., & El Said, A. (2021). Financial inclusion and economic growth: The role of governance in selected MENA countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 75, 34-54.
• Golpe, A. A., Sánchez-Fuentes, A. J., & Vides, J. C. (2023). Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path. Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 1026-1045.
• Le, V. P. M., Matthews, K., Meenagh, D., Minford, P., & Xiao, Z. (2021). Shadow banks, banking policies and China’s macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 116, 102415.
• Matallah, S. (2020). Economic diversification in MENA oil exporters: Understanding the role of governance. Resources Policy, 66, 101602.
• Thanh, S. D., Hart, N., & Canh, N. P. (2020). Public spending, public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis. Economic Systems, 44(4), 100780.
• Waheed, F., & Rashid, A. (2021). Credit frictions, fiscal imbalances, monetary policy autonomy, and monetary policy rules. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 23, e00192.
• Xu, Z., & Pal, S. (2022). The effects of financial liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India’s manufacturing sector. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 7(4), 578-588.
• Younas, Z. I., Qureshi, A., & Al-Faryan, M. A. S. (2022). Financial inclusion, the shadow economy and economic growth in developing economies. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics