Financial stability, uncertainty of monetary policy and economic activities of the country

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

MOHAMMADREZA PEZESHKI ¹ , مرجان marjan دامن کشیدهdamankeshideh ^{2 *} , Aliasghar Esmaeilnia gatabi ³

1 - Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran branch
2 - عضو هیئت علمی و مدیر گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی
3 - Assistant Professor in Faculty of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch

Received: 2024-08-23 Accepted : 2024-11-11 Published : 2025-01-05

Keywords: financial stability, monetary policy uncertainty, economic activities of the country, structural vector autoregression ,

Abstract :

In the present study, a non-linear analysis of the relationship between financial stability, monetary policy uncertainty and the economic activities of the country with the cost model of the list price of Ball and Menkiu by using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) method is performed based on the frequency of annual data during the period of 1990-2022. according to the estimation results; It was found that the effect of the oil price impulse on the GDP was positive, but its effect disappears from the third and fourth period onwards, which shows the short-term effect of oil revenues on production. The effect of monetary stimulus on production for the country initially has a negative effect and then its effect disappears. The impact of the oil price impulse on the facilities granted in the country has been negative, which can also be caused by the increase in imports to the country due to the increase in oil prices and inflation control, which has been lost since the fourth period. The effect of monetary impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector is positive in the country as well, which can be considered effective from the channel of increasing the foreign assets of the Central Bank and consequently increasing the growth of the monetary base and liquidity. Among other important reaction functions, we can mention the impact of production impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector, which has a positive effect in the