Application of optimal theory for Forcast Path of Iran Liquidity

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

Mostafa Rajabi ¹ , Homayun Ranjbar ² , Fojan Tadayon ³

1 - Assistan Professor Azad univesity khomeinishahr
2 - Assistan Professor Azad univesity Khorasgan
3 - M.A Student

Received: 2015-06-10 Accepted : 2015-06-10 Published : 2009-12-22

Keywords: Optimal control theory, Simultaneous equations, Optimal path to liquidity, Monetary Policy,

Abstract :

Since the process of economic development rests on the five-year program is to develop. Implement these programs require financial resources and liquidity expansion that can to lead to negative economic effects may include swelling. The optimal path of liquidity determining based on the objectives of develop programs. Therefore, the comparison of used this path can help to policy makers. Accordingly, the aim of this paper to forecast optimal path of liquidity during developed fifth. So, Liquidity volume is extracted using the results of simultaneous equations based on the structure of the economy in optimal control theory. In this regard, we tried to estimate the simultaneous equations system by a three-stage least squares method using a time series of variables during the period 3691- 7002,and the optimum amounts to forecast during the period 7002-7032.in end, optimal path of liquidity by used liquidity growth rate based on development plans goal.