Estimating the spatial spillover effects of housing supply in selected provinces with an emphasis on housing priority papers (spatial panel approach)

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

Mousa Ghorbani ^{1 *} , فرزانه خلیلی ² , Mohammadreza Monjazeb ^{3 *}

1 - Ph.D. student in department of Economics, Abhar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abhar, Iran.
2 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ابهر، ایران
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Public Affairs, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2023-04-30 Accepted : 2024-10-28 Published : 2025-01-05

Keywords: &quot, Housing priority bonds&quot, , &quot, housing supply&quot, , &quot, space panel&quot, , &quot, rich and disadvantaged provinces&quot, , &quot, spatial overflow of housing supply&quot, ,

Abstract :

One of the consequences of the uneven growth of housing in big cities is the effects of housing overflow to neighboring provinces and regions. With the increasing growth of housing in megacities and areas where there is a concentration of wealth and capital, it causes many complications in those areas. These effects make measures and laws to be established through the government to repair the negative effects of development. In general, the creation of new laws to prevent social and environmental damage, as well as the unconventional growth of housing prices, provides the basis for the overflow of housing to the neighboring provinces. Apart from housing, all industries related to housing are also affected and these industries are also forced to move their companies to neighboring provinces. These factors are the indirect effects of the uneven development of housing in the centers of power and wealth, which sometimes creates rapid growth in neighboring areas. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to calculate the overflow of housing supply in selected provinces. For this purpose, the variables of housing supply, used housing right-of-way, housing price and gross domestic product have been used. The studied period is from 1386-1400 and includes the rich provinces (Tehran, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Fars, Mazandaran, Gilan, Alborz and Khuzestan) and non-rich provinces (South Khorasan, Ilam, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, North Khorasan). Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Kurdistan, Lorestan and Yazd). The data analysis method is spatial panel.