The Effect of Exchange rate volatility and Economic sanctions on Tax revenue in Iran

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

مونا منصوری ¹ , محمد خضری ^{2 *} , فاطمه زندی ³ , بیژن صفوی ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکترا، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
2 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
3 - استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب، تهران، ایران
4 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

Received: 2021-12-30 Accepted : 2024-10-28 Published : 2025-01-05

Keywords: Exchange rate Volatility, Economic sanctions, Tax revenue, Exploratory factor analysis model, NARDL nonlinear model,

Abstract :

The most important source of revenue for governments is tax revenue. Governments can overcome many important economic and social problems through tax revenues. In the present study, using the exploratory factor analysis model and the NARDL nonlinear model, the effect of exchange rate volatility and economic sanctions on tax revenue in Iran during the course 1358-1396 has been investigated. According to the results of the Exploratory factor analysis model, the first 4 factors of the study variables were identified as representative of sanctions and among the indicators, the price of imported goods and the price index of exported goods have the most role in the factors. Also in accordance with the estimation results of the NARDL nonlinear model; In the long run, positive and negative exchange rate Volatility have a positive effect on government tax revenue. And the effect of economic sanctions on tax revenue is negative and equal to -0.15. Considering the economic conditions of the country at the time of the sanctions, it is necessary for coherent changes in the structure and system of the tax to take place. Accepting changes in key variables such as the banking and monetary system, the system of entry and exit of goods and encouraging investment, requires a change in attitudes to taxes, taking seriously and supporting the reform of the country's tax system during the embargo.