Dynamic Analysis of the Performance of Iranian Financial Markets Based on Investment Risk: Application of Social Network Analysis and System Dynamics
Subject Areas : Financial Economicsرضا رادفر 1 * , معصومه میرزایی نژاد لیمویی 2 * , Kiamars Fathi Hafshjani 3
1 - گروه مدیریت تکنولوژی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی گرایش مالی ، گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد ،واحد علوم و تحقیقات ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،تهران،
3 - Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Iran Financial Markets Performance, Investment Risk, System Dynamics, Social Network Analysis,
Abstract :
The present study deals with the dynamic analysis of the performance of Iranian financial markets based on investment risk using a combined approach of social network analysis and system dynamics. For this purpose, first, critical risks in the financial markets identified and evaluated using social network analysis, and then the performance of each financial market based on investment risk examined and the system dynamics model based on critical risk interactions. Its effects on the performance of financial markets using the data of gold, land and construction financial markets, capital market, deposit in the design bank and after model validation, simulation in ten-year horizon (1408-1398) Done. According to the behavior of variables and model sensitivity analysis, financial market development policies including "capital market development", "liquidity reduction monetary policy", "land and building market organization" and "gold market organization" are identified and identified separately and A combination was applied to the model and the results were compared and the behavior was analyzed. According to the findings of the model, the combined policies of investment risk management are presented as the best policies for the development of productive financial markets. In general, considering the causal relationship between the risks of investment markets and identifying critical risks is provided by network analysis and testing financial and investment policies over time by system dynamics modeling.