Rapid urbanization has put heavy pressure on the land and it is surrounding resources, reducing vegetation, reducing open space and serious social and environmental problems. An important step in managing and planning urban development, as well as assessing its cumulati
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Rapid urbanization has put heavy pressure on the land and it is surrounding resources, reducing vegetation, reducing open space and serious social and environmental problems. An important step in managing and planning urban development, as well as assessing its cumulative effects, is to study and simulate the physical development of the city. One of the processes in which a city changes can be investigated for a multi- year period and therefore predicting the directions of urban development for appropriate planning is urban development modeling, so urban designers and planners have spatial information and when they are related to urban growth patterns, they need to do the modeling. The aim of the present study is to model the urban development of Bandar Abbas city using the LCM model in the 21st year series ( 1994, 2002, 2009, 2015) using the Landsat satellite images. In the first step, after classification of images by supervised method, mostly we compared the maps with the accuracy of the KAPPA coefficient of 0.9550, and then using the land- change model to predict the map of 2021 and using the Logistic regression model and the CA-Markov chain, the development of the city in 2021 was anticipated exactly. After calculating the matrix, the probability of transfer of changes to predict land use in 2009, 2015, and 2021 was calculated using Logistic regression, which compared to land use in the years 2009 and 2015, the accuracy of the Kappa coefficient was 75.3% for 2009 and 86.9%. Also for the year 2015 we achieved relatively good results.
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