The Impact of Oil Income Fluctuations on the Economy Management System and the Government's Economic Policies in Iran from 2013 to 2020
Subject Areas : OrganizationsFarhad Salasel 1 , Hossein Sheikhzadeh 2 , Hasan Khodaverdi 3
1 - PhD student in Political Science, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Government, Fluctuation of Oil Income, Oil, Economic Policy, Iran,
Abstract :
Oil became one of the pillars of Iran's economy from the beginning of the 14th century AH, and its traces can be seen in all political, economic and social developments since then. Iran's economy is affected by oil and its revenues through various mechanisms. The problem of this research is to analyze one of the dimensions of the effect of oil on Iran's political economy, that is, the government's economic policies between 2013 and 2021. The purpose of the research is to identify the effects of oil on the government's policies and to provide the basis for reducing the negative effects. The descriptive-analytical research method and the method of data collection will be library studies and official statistics. According to research data, domestic and international developments have caused fluctuations in oil production, price, and income, and these fluctuations are caused by certain economic policies such as financial indiscipline, inflationary programs, and relative neglect of the tax system. And it has resulted in an increase in the Gini coefficient. These policies lead to the occurrence of some economic-social phenomena and the fluctuation of economic indicators, such as the failure to achieve the goals of development plans, rising inflation rates, increasing or decreasing the class gap, creating employment in a limited way and ultimately disequilibrium. Industry, agriculture and service sectors have grown. Although in some cases, such as job creation, oil income has had positive consequences, but mainly the consequences of oil income fluctuations have been negative and hindered economic progress.
Afarineshfar, S. & Shahnazi, R. (2016). Investigating the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Value Added of Different Economic Sectors in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies, 12(48). Doi 20.1001.1.20084838.1401.53.2.14.4
Anvaripour, Hamed; Namamian, Farshid; Maroofi Naqhdehi, Fakhraddin and Vafayi, Farhad(2022),“Designing a Pattern the Innovative Brand in order to improve the Competitiveness of Iran's Petrochemical Industries Using Modeling ISM”, Journal of System Management (JSM), 8(2), Doi:10.30495/JSM.2022.1958876.1647
Asadi, Seyyed Piman and Bahrami, Javed. (2013). Political Economy of Oil Countries' Currency System. Research Journal of Energy Economy, Volume 4, Number 9. , In persian
Asgharpour, Hossein and Baradaran Khanian, Zainab. (2018). Asymmetric Effects of Oil Revenues on Government Budget Deficit in Iran: Quantile Regression Approach, Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, Year 5, Number 2. , In persian
Askari, Rehane, Ghanbari, Hassan Ali and Iqbali, Alireza. (2017). Instability in Macroeconomics and Private Sector Investment. Economic Research Quarterly, Volume 6, Number 23. , In persian
-Boukbech, R., Bousselhami, A., & Ezzahid, E. (2018). Determinants of Tax Revenues: Evidence
from Sample of Lower Middle Income countries. Applied Economics and Finance, 6(1), DOI: https://doi.org/10.11114/aef.v6i1.3280
Carl, Terry. Lin. (2009). The mystery of abundance; Oil booms and oil governments, translated by Javad Khairkhohan, Tehran: Nei Publishing House, 2008. , In persian
Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, time series data. , In persian
-Ekhlasmand, Seyedeh Shima; Fattahi, Majid and Salavati, Shahram(2023) “Identifying the Components and Indicators of Social Marketing in Small and Medium Businesses with a Resistance Economy Approach”, Journal of System Management (JSM), 9(4), Doi: 10.30495/JSM.2023.1979182.1766
Fazli-nejad, Saif-ollah and Ahmadian Morteza. (2010). Rentary economy in Iran and the ways out of it", Economic Issues and Policies Monthly, No. 11 and 12, In persian
Ghadirinejad, Gholamreza; Rajab Beigi, Mojtaba and Gholami, Abdul Khaliq (2023), Scenario Development of Talent Management System in Iran's National Oil Products Distribution Company” Journal of System Management, 9(4), Doi:10.30495/JSM.2023.1984177.18
Ghanbari, Ali, Khazari, Mohsen and Rasouli, Ahmad. (2018). Identifying the asymmetric effects of crude oil shocks on Iran's economy in economic regimes: Markov choice model. Journal of Economic Research, No. 97. , In persian
Hameed, Samina. (2020). Political economy of rentierism in the middle east and disruptions from the dijital space. Contemporary review of the middle east. doi.org/10.1177/23477989198897
Iran Statistical Center. (2023). Macroeconomic and social indicators of the countr, In persian Islamic Parliament Research Center (2016), a picture of macroeconomic performance in different governments, In persian Salvatore, Dominic. (2005). International Trade: Theories and Policies of the International Economy, translated by Hamidreza Arbab, Tehran: Ney Publishing. , In persian Mehrara, Mohsen, Vafi Najjar, Dariush and Erfani Fard, Ali. (2010). Uncertainty in crude oil future markets and its effect on forecasting the price and volatility of oil revenues by presenting a suitable model for forecasting oil prices and revenues." Kham", Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies, Volume 7, Number 26. , In persian
Mirtrabi, Saeed. (2008). Oil and Democracy in the Middle East. Journal of Middle East Studies, No. 53. , In persian
Molaei, Mohammad and Abdian, Marzieh (2018). Investigation of factors affecting Iran's budget deficit in the years 1368 to 1394. Planning and Budgeting Quarterly, 20th year, number 1. , In persian Momeni, Farshad. (2020). Speech at the study center of the Academy of Sciences. , In persian Muslemian, Ramin and Izadi, Ismail. (2017). A critical look at Iran's economy from 1392 to 1395. Maidan magazine, 20th of Khordad. , In persian Nademi, Younes. (2017). The resource curse and income inequality in Iran. springer, Published online, April.28. DOI:10.1007/s11135-017-0510-yNational Statistics Portal (1401), macro economic and social indicators of the country, In persian
Nerré, Birger. (2001). The Concept of Tax Culture. National Tax Association, Proceedings Ninety-Fourth Annual Conference 2001. BNTA, Washington DC , In persian
Nili, Masoud. (2021), Duniya Ekhtaz newspaper, (8/13/1400). In persian The State Court of Accounts. (2019). commenting on the government's resources and expenditures in the 2014 budget bill, In persian
-Rezaee, Gholamreza and Karimi, Farzad(2023), “ An Investigation of Institutional Quality Conditions and the Export of Intermediate Goods by Developing Countries”, Journal of System Management, 9(4), Doi: 10.30495/JSM.2023.1978563.1767
-Sayyar,Majid; heraghAli,Mahmoud Reza and Saeidi Parviz(2023), “ Strategic International Business Innovation: A New Approach in Development of Iran's harmaceutical Industry” Journal of System Management,9(4),Doi: 10.30495/JSM.2023.1980921.1782
- Sheikhzadeh, Hossein (2012), "Oil of Iran; Factor or obstacle to development", Tehran: Publishing Company, In persian
-State Court of Accounts (2019), budget deduction report for 2018
Usui, Norio. (1997). Utch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: a comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico” ,Resources Policy, vol. 23, issue4. Doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4207(97)00023-8
Yavari, Kazem, Rezaqlizadeh, Mahdieh and Aghaei, Majid (2013). Investigation of economic growth in countries dependent on natural resources with an emphasis on oil resources. Economic Modeling Quarterly, Volume 5, Number 15. , In persian
Zooqi, Iraj. (1993). Political-Economic Issues of Iran's Oil, Tehran: Pazhang Publications. , In persian