Prediction and trendtion of land use changes and land cover using integrated methods of Markov chain and automated cells and land change modeler in Sistan plain

Subject Areas : Natural resources and environmental management

Zohreh Hashemi ¹ , Hamid Sodaeizadeh ² , Mohammad hossein Mokhtari ³ , Mohammad ali Hakim Zadeh Ardekani ⁴ , Kazem Kamali AliAbadi ⁵

1 - Department of Desert Management and control, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, University of Yazd, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Desert Management and control, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, University of Yazd, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Desert Management and control, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, University of Yazd, Iran
4 - Associate Professor, Department of Desert Management and control, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, University of Yazd, Iran
5 - Associate Professor, Department of Desert Management and control, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, University of Yazd, Iran

Received: 2022-08-02 Accepted : 2022-09-08 Published : 2022-09-08

Keywords: Automated cells model, Land Use Change, Sistan Plain, Land Change Modeler, Landsat images,

Abstract :

In optimal planning and management of natural resources, knowledge of how land cover changes and land use and the factors that cause it are very necessary. In this field, remote sensing data have high potential to study temporal and spatial changes in land cover and land use. The purpose of presence study is prediction and assessment of the trend of land use changes and land cover in Zahak area of Sistan plain. For this purpose, land use and cover maps were prepared from landsat satellite images using support vector machine method of supervised classification in 1987, 2001 and 2018. Then, using the land use map in 1987 and 2001, land cover in 2018 was predicted. Land use maps for 2001 and 2018 and land cover for 2030 was predicted using integrated method of Markov chain and automated cells. To analyze the trend of land use changes and land cover since 1987- 2001, 2001- 2018 and 2018- 2030, Land change modeler was used. Results indicated that areas of watery agriculture 2013 hectares, tree cover 1117 hectares, water areas 2391 hectares and barren lands 9535 hectares has decreased since 1987- 2001. Also, the mulching area uses area 192 hectares, and sand dunes 14864 hectares were increased. During the period 2001- 2018, the areas of watery agriculture land uses 3533 hectares and barren lands 3707 hectares has decreased and uses area tree cover 313 hectares, water areas 5385, mulching area 247 hectares, and sand dunes 1295 hectares were increased. In the forecasting the time period 2018- 2030, the area of uses watery agriculture will be 1098 hectares, sand dunes 527 hectares, and barren lands 2020 hectares are reduced. In this forecast, land use of tree cover 16 hectares, water area 3607 hectares, and mulching area 23 hectares will increase.