The Prediction of Iran's Per Capita Health Expenditures up to 2041 Horizon Using the Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

Subject Areas : medical documents

abolghasem  golkhandan ¹ (Ph.D. Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative, Lorestan University, Khoram Abad, Iran)
Somayeh  Sahraei ² (M.A Economics, Science and Research Branch Khuzestan, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran)

Received: 2019-02-02 Accepted : 2019-05-19 Published : 2019-02-20

Keywords: Health Expenditure, Iran, Prediction, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO),

Abstract :

Introduction: prediction the per capita health expenditures can be useful and effective in determining the best policies for financing and managing of health expenditures. Accordingly, the main objective of this study was to predict the per capita health expenditures trend in Iran. Methods: In this paper, we specified a health expenditure model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of three forms of linear, exponential and quadratic equations and using theoretical foundations in the field of per capita health expenditure function, we used genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians per capita health expenditure during 1979-2015. Then we selected the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast per capita health expenditure until 2041. Also, the statistical analyzes were performed using the MATLAB software version R2016b. Results: The predicted results indicate that per capita health expenditures in Iran will increase with a positive slope by 2041. The amount of this expenditure will be from $ 1081 (based on 2011 constant prices) in 2015 to $ 2628 in 2041 (about 2.5 times). Conclusion: With regard to the projected amount of per capita health expenditures up to 2041 horizon, policy makers in the health sector should take the necessary measures to finance the expenditures of this sector.

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