Risk Analysis & Financial Evaluation in Power Plant BOT

Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis

Faramarz Nouri ¹ , Parastoo Mohammadi ² , Esmaeil Vassaf ³

1 - کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی صنایع - سیستم های اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران وعضوگروه مهندسی صنایع و مدیریت صنعتی پژوهشکده توسعه وبرنامه ریزی
2 - استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع - سیستمهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران
3 - کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، کارشناس پروژههای سرمایهگذاری شرکت مپنا

Received: 2014-09-19 Accepted : 2014-10-12 Published : 2015-06-22

Keywords: Power Plant Projects, Financial Evaluation, Value at risk, Monte Carlo&#x0D, &#x0D, Simulation, BOT,

Abstract :

The aim of this thesis is identifying and modeling the risks of the power plant BOTprojects. Main identified risks in this study are project financing risk(equity ratio risk)and the risk of revenue of project. In order to model the risks, we used the MartingaleVariance Model (MVM) for the revenue risk and the Triangular distribution function forthe equity ratio risk. We applicated the Monte Carlo simulations method for obtainingthe probability distribution function and critical values of the decision index (Net PresentValue, Internal Rate of Return, Debt Service Coverage Ratio). The one of thermal powerplant projects data prepared by MAPNA, has been implemented in this study. The resultsof the simulation indicate that the risk of negative NPV of project is 13.41 percent and therisk of DSCR lower than 1.2 is 8.65 percent. Therefore, the sponsors suffering more risksthan lenders in the studied project.