Analyzing the Impact of Population Policies on Demographic and Social Developments: Challenges and Opportunities in the National Balance of Power of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Subject Areas : Political and International Researches Quarterly
kaveh farhadi
1
,
سید جلال دهقانی فیروزآبادی
2
,
samad ghaempanah
3
1 -
2 - هیأت علمی
3 - Islamic azad university
Keywords: Population policies, demographic changes, national balance of power, sustainable development, social challenges,
Abstract :
Population policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran have consistently been influenced by the perspectives and decisions of political elites, leading to fluctuations and instability in different governmental periods. These inconsistencies in policymaking and implementation have hindered the formulation and execution of a comprehensive, cohesive, and long-term strategy in the population domain. This article, utilizing the theoretical frameworks of “Elites” and the “Political System,” analyzes the impact of post-revolutionary population policies on Iran’s demographic structure and social transformations. The study examines shifts in birth rates, migration trends, age and gender composition, and their broader socio-economic consequences to identify the challenges and opportunities related to enhancing Iran’s national power balance.
The findings indicate that ineffective and fluctuating population strategies—alongside internal socio-economic transformations and external pressures—have led to several critical issues, such as population aging, reduction in the young labor force, brain drain, and regional inequalities. However, the article also identifies potential opportunities, including the strategic use of a young population, enhancement of human capital, and the promotion of innovation-driven social capacity.
Ultimately, this research provides policy recommendations aimed at reforming population strategies through evidence-based and scientifically grounded approaches aligned with sustainable development objectives and the strengthening of national power. The article contributes to a deeper understanding of how demographic policy can serve as a lever for socio-political stability and long-term national development in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
التیامی‌نیا. (2022). چالش های سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی کاهش جمعیت در جمهوری اسلامی ایران. جامعه شناسی سیاسی ایران، 21(5)، 802-818.
عنابستانی، علی اکبر، قنبری، سیروس، پورجوپاری، مرضیه و خدادادی، علی . (1401). ارزیابی تاثیر سیاست‌های جمعیتی دولت بر پایداری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان کرمان). روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا، 3(2)، 1-24. doi: 10.22077/vssd.2022.5182.1093
معبودی، رضا، فطرس، محمدحسن، دره نظری، زینب . (1403). تجزیه سهم عوامل مؤثر بر سالخوردگی جمعیت در ایران با استفاده از رویکرد ارزش شیپلی. مجلس و راهبرد، 31(118)، 159-197. doi: 10.22034/mr.2023.5460.5206
References
Andersson, G., & Neyer, G. (2018). The Role of Family Policies in Fertility Rates: Lessons from Scandinavia. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 46(7), 1-10.
Assessment of the Impact of Government Population Policies on the Sustainability of Rural Settlements (Case Study: Kerman County) (2022). Arzyabi-ye Taseer-e Siyasat-haye Jam'iyati-ye Dowlat bar Paydari-ye Sokonatgah-haye Roostayi (Matlale Moredi: Shahrestan-e Kerman). Rural and Sustainable Development Space, 3(2), 1-24. (In Persian)
Azoulay, S., Smith, J., & Rodríguez, M. (2020). The Role of Immigration in Economic Growth and Cultural Diversity: Opportunities and Challenges. International Migration Review, 54(3), 432-449.
Barker, L. (2021). Innovation in Response to Demographic Change: Economic Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Economic Policy and Innovation, 28(2), 112-128.
Bavari, M. (2022). The Impact of Population Policies on Family Structure and Labor Market in Iran. Social Research Quarterly, 22(3), 45-62. (In Persian)
Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2019). “The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Population and Development Review, 45(1), 1-24.
Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2019). Population Aging and Economic Growth: The Global Perspective. The World Bank.
Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
Brown, T. (2019). Youth Population and Sustainable Growth: The Role of Education and Healthcare Investment. Global Development Review, 8(3), 115-130.
Chong, S., & Tan, W. (2022). Population Policies in Singapore: Challenges and Responses to Declining Birth Rates. Asian Population Review, 18(3), 112-128.
Cohen, L. (2020). Research methods in education. 8th ed. Routledge.
Decomposition of the Factors Affecting Population Aging in Iran Using the Shapley Value Approach(2024). Tajziyeh-ye Hessem-e Avamel Moasser bar Salkhordegi-ye Jam'iyat dar Iran ba Estefadeh az Roudkarde Arzesh Shapely. Majles and Strategy, 31(118), 159-197. (In Persian)
Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109.
Gereffi, G. (2018). Globalization and the Changing Geographies of Innovation and Entrepreneurship. World Development, 104, 1-12.
Ghasemi, R. (2022). Transformations in Population Policies in Iran: From Birth Control to Fertility Promotion. Iran Population Studies Quarterly, 18(2), 45-60. (In Persian)
Ghasemi, R. (2023). The Impact of Population Policies on Social Dissatisfaction. Social Research Journal, 18(1), 112-125. (In Persian)
Goldstein, J. (2018). Demographic Change and Technological Innovation in Healthcare: Opportunities for Economic Growth. Journal of Aging and Innovation, 12(4), 34-49.
Harsono, I., Sutanto, H., & Sya’rani, R. (2024). Migration Patterns and Social Change in Kalimantan Region: A Quantitative Study of The Impact of Migration in Changing Social and Economic Structures. Sciences du Nord Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(01), 14-24.
Harsono, I., Sutanto, H., & Sya’rani, R. (2024). Migration Patterns and Social Change in Kalimantan Region: A Quantitative Study of The Impact of Migration in Changing Social and Economic Structures. Sciences du Nord Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(01), 14-24.
Izadi, K. (2007). Social and Economic Challenges Arising from Population Policies. Sociology Journal, 7(3), 59-73. (In Persian)
Jafari, S., Karami, M., & Soleimani, F. (2020). The Role of Executive Institutions in Improving Population Policies and Their Impact on Economic Growth. Iran Sustainable Development Quarterly, 15(2), 87-103. (In Persian)
Khodayari, M., Azimi, N., & Mehrabani, H. (2024). Impact of population control policies on fertility rates and family structure in post-revolutionary Iran. Journal of Population Studies, 58(3), 215-230.
Khorasani, M. (2016). The Impact of Population Policies on the Institution of Family. Iranian Social Studies Journal, 5(1), 50-66. (In Persian)
Khorasani, S. (2016). The Impact of Population Policies on the Institution of Family. Social Sciences Quarterly, 10(4), 55-72. (In Persian)
Kim, J. (2021). The economic impact of youth population on growth: Lessons from East Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 16(2), 295-312.
Klasen, S. (2020). Population, inequality, and economic development. Oxford University Press.
Lee, R. (2018). Population Aging and the Economic Implications for Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 89-114.
Lee, R. (2020). The demographic transition and its effects on economic growth and innovation. Journal of Population Economics, 33(4), 1001-1023.
Mahdavi, H. (2022). National power balance and its relation to demographic policies and social challenges in Iran. Journal of National Development Studies, 15(4), 95-112.
Maleki, R. (2015). Analyzing Opportunities and Challenges of Population Policies. Economic Research Journal, 15(4), 23-37. (In Persian)
Mason, A. (2021). Economic factors influencing fertility rates in developing countries: A comprehensive analysis. Journal of Population Studies, 34(2), 123-145
McDonald, P. (2019). Population policies and demographic change: The role of family planning. International Journal of Population Studies, 22(1), 45-62.
Moore, T., Johnson, L., Smith, A., & Lee, K. (2022). Youth Employment and Economic Growth: The Role of Skills and Innovation. Journal of Economic Development, 34(3), 45-67.
Mousavi, M. (2021). Demographic Policies in Iran: Shifting Trends and Their Impact on Population Growth. Iranian Journal of Population Studies, 24(2), 75-90.
Mousavi, N. (2023). Declining Birth Rates and Their Consequences on Human Resources and the Labor Market. Scientific Journal of Economics and Management, 15(2), 78-90. (In Persian)
Mousavi, N. (2023). Internal Migration and Socio-Economic Challenges in Iran: Examining Population Dynamics and Their Effects on Infrastructure. Iranian Social Studies Journal, 7(4), 99-113. (In Persian)
OECD. (2020). Ageing and employment policies: United States 2020. OECD Publishing.
OECD. (2020). The Youth Dividend: Harnessing the Potential of Young Populations for Economic Growth. OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 29.
OECD. (2020). Youth and Skills: Putting Education to Work. OECD Publishing.
Ogawa, N. (2020). Population Aging and Economic Growth in Japan: A Demographic Perspective. Asian Population Studies, 16(1), 27-44.
Pishgar, F., Alavi, Z., & Karami, R. (2022). The "Youthful Population" law: A new strategy for increasing birth rates in Iran. Journal of Public Policy, 32(2), 134-145.
Political, Social, and Economic Challenges of Population Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran (2022). Chalesh-haye Siyasi, Ejtemai, va Eqtesadi Keshesh-e Jam'iyat dar Jomhuri-ye Islami-ye Iran. Iranian Political Sociology, 21(5), 802-818. (In Persian)
Popenoe, D. (2020). The changing structure of the American family: Implications for social stability. Journal of Marriage and Family, 82(3), 500-515.
Reckford, M., & Spence, D. (2016). Urban Migration and Social Tensions: The Role of Policy in Managing Internal Migration. Journal of Migration Studies, 14(2), 87-104.
Rezaei, A. (2019). Supportive Family Policies and Their Impacts in Iran. Journal of Social Studies, 12(3), 100-115. (In Persian)
Rezvani, S.M. (2023). Challenges and Opportunities in Health Services Facing the Aging Population in Iran. Iranian Health Sciences Journal, 18(3), 45-59. (In Persian)
Sharifi, M. (2011). Effects of Population Policies on the Country's Gross Domestic Product. Economic Management Quarterly, 9(1), 42-54. (In Persian)
Smith, A., & Black, R. (2021). Demographic Transitions and Policy Reforms: Addressing the Challenges of Aging and Youth Populations. Journal of Population Policy, 12(2), 78-92.
Smith, J., & Johnson, L. (2020). The Impact of Population Policies on Social and Economic Changes in Developing Countries. Journal of Population Research, 37(4), 375-392.
Smith, T. W., & Johnson, A. (2020). The Impact of Demographic Changes on Economic Growth in Developing Countries. International Journal of Economic Research, 11(2), 45-68.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Statistical Center of Iran. (2022). Annual Report on Population and Population Changes in Iran. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran. (In Persian)
Todar, J. (2009). Economic Consequences of Population Policies in Iran. Economy and Planning Journal, 11(2), 88-101. (In Persian)
Todaro, M. P. (2020). Economic development. 12th ed. Pearson Education.
United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Wang, F., & Shen, M. (2021). China's Changing Population Policies: From One-Child to Three-Child Policy. Population Research, 40(1), 25-38.
Wilson, J. (2021). Healthcare and Education as Pillars of Sustainable Economic Growth. International Journal of Development Studies, 14(2), 45-60.
World Health Organization (WHO). (2021). World report on ageing and health. Geneva: World Health Organization.
World Health Organization. (2021). World report on ageing and health. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Zahavi, Y., Cohen, S., & Liu, R. (2021). Urbanization and Inequality: The Global Impact of Rapid Urban Growth. Journal of Urban Studies, 58(5), 1123-1145.
Zanjani, S. (2023). Social Challenges Arising from Population Policies in Iran. Iranian Social Sciences Journal, 9(1), 22-37. (In Persian)
Zhang, L. (2019). The One-Child Policy and Its Impact on China's Demography. Journal of Population Studies, 34(2), 167-179.
Zhang, W., Liu, H., & Chen, X. (2021). Cultural and Social Impacts of Population Policies in Various Countries. International Journal of Sociology, 45(2), 215-229.
