تحلیل تأثیر سیاست‌های جمعیتی بر تحولات جمعیتی و اجتماعی: چالش‌ها و فرصت‌ها در تراز قدرت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
الموضوعات : مجله پژوهش های سیاسی و بین المللی
کاوه فرهادی
1
,
سید جلال دهقانی فیروزآبادی
2
,
صمد قائم پناه
3
1 - گروه روابط بین الملل، واحد علوم و تحقیقات،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - گروه روابط بین الملل، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - گروه علوم سیاسی، واحد تاکستان،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،تاکستان، ایران.
الکلمات المفتاحية: سیاست‌های جمعیتی, تحولات جمعیتی, تراز قدرت ملی, توسعه پایدار, چالش‌های اجتماعی,
ملخص المقالة :
سیاست‌های جمعیتی در جمهوری اسلامی ایران همواره تحت تأثیر نگرش‌ها و تصمیم‌گیری‌های نخبگان سیاسی شکل گرفته‌اند و در نتیجه، دچار نوسانات و عدم ثبات در دوره‌های مختلف بوده‌اند. این ناهماهنگی‌ها در سیاست‌گذاری و اجرا، مانع از تدوین و پیاده‌سازی یک برنامه جامع، منسجم و بلندمدت در حوزه جمعیت شده است. مقاله حاضر با بهره‌گیری از چارچوب‌های نظری «نخبگان» و «نظام سیاسی»، به تحلیل تأثیر سیاست‌های جمعیتی پس از انقلاب اسلامی ایران بر ساختار جمعیت و تحولات اجتماعی کشور می‌پردازد. در این راستا، ضمن بررسی روند تغییرات در نرخ زاد و ولد، مهاجرت، ساختار سنی و جنسیتی و پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی آن‌ها، تلاش شده تا چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های موجود در مسیر ارتقای تراز قدرت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران تبیین شود.
نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های ناکارآمد و متغیر جمعیتی، در کنار تحولات اجتماعی-اقتصادی داخلی و فشارهای بین‌المللی، منجر به بروز مشکلاتی همچون پیری جمعیت، کاهش نیروی کار جوان، مهاجرت نخبگان، و نابرابری‌های منطقه‌ای شده است. از سوی دیگر، فرصت‌هایی مانند بهره‌برداری از جمعیت جوان، افزایش سرمایه انسانی و ظرفیت‌سازی اجتماعی برای نوآوری نیز قابل شناسایی‌اند. در پایان، مقاله پیشنهادهایی برای اصلاح سیاست‌های جمعیتی با تأکید بر رویکردهای علمی، داده‌محور و هم‌راستا با توسعه پایدار و تقویت قدرت ملی ارائه می‌دهد.
التیامی‌نیا. (2022). چالش های سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی کاهش جمعیت در جمهوری اسلامی ایران. جامعه شناسی سیاسی ایران، 21(5)، 802-818.
عنابستانی، علی اکبر، قنبری، سیروس، پورجوپاری، مرضیه و خدادادی، علی . (1401). ارزیابی تاثیر سیاست‌های جمعیتی دولت بر پایداری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان کرمان). روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا، 3(2)، 1-24. doi: 10.22077/vssd.2022.5182.1093
معبودی، رضا، فطرس، محمدحسن، دره نظری، زینب . (1403). تجزیه سهم عوامل مؤثر بر سالخوردگی جمعیت در ایران با استفاده از رویکرد ارزش شیپلی. مجلس و راهبرد، 31(118)، 159-197. doi: 10.22034/mr.2023.5460.5206
References
Andersson, G., & Neyer, G. (2018). The Role of Family Policies in Fertility Rates: Lessons from Scandinavia. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 46(7), 1-10.
Assessment of the Impact of Government Population Policies on the Sustainability of Rural Settlements (Case Study: Kerman County) (2022). Arzyabi-ye Taseer-e Siyasat-haye Jam'iyati-ye Dowlat bar Paydari-ye Sokonatgah-haye Roostayi (Matlale Moredi: Shahrestan-e Kerman). Rural and Sustainable Development Space, 3(2), 1-24. (In Persian)
Azoulay, S., Smith, J., & Rodríguez, M. (2020). The Role of Immigration in Economic Growth and Cultural Diversity: Opportunities and Challenges. International Migration Review, 54(3), 432-449.
Barker, L. (2021). Innovation in Response to Demographic Change: Economic Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Economic Policy and Innovation, 28(2), 112-128.
Bavari, M. (2022). The Impact of Population Policies on Family Structure and Labor Market in Iran. Social Research Quarterly, 22(3), 45-62. (In Persian)
Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2019). “The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Population and Development Review, 45(1), 1-24.
Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2019). Population Aging and Economic Growth: The Global Perspective. The World Bank.
Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
Brown, T. (2019). Youth Population and Sustainable Growth: The Role of Education and Healthcare Investment. Global Development Review, 8(3), 115-130.
Chong, S., & Tan, W. (2022). Population Policies in Singapore: Challenges and Responses to Declining Birth Rates. Asian Population Review, 18(3), 112-128.
Cohen, L. (2020). Research methods in education. 8th ed. Routledge.
Decomposition of the Factors Affecting Population Aging in Iran Using the Shapley Value Approach(2024). Tajziyeh-ye Hessem-e Avamel Moasser bar Salkhordegi-ye Jam'iyat dar Iran ba Estefadeh az Roudkarde Arzesh Shapely. Majles and Strategy, 31(118), 159-197. (In Persian)
Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109.
Gereffi, G. (2018). Globalization and the Changing Geographies of Innovation and Entrepreneurship. World Development, 104, 1-12.
Ghasemi, R. (2022). Transformations in Population Policies in Iran: From Birth Control to Fertility Promotion. Iran Population Studies Quarterly, 18(2), 45-60. (In Persian)
Ghasemi, R. (2023). The Impact of Population Policies on Social Dissatisfaction. Social Research Journal, 18(1), 112-125. (In Persian)
Goldstein, J. (2018). Demographic Change and Technological Innovation in Healthcare: Opportunities for Economic Growth. Journal of Aging and Innovation, 12(4), 34-49.
Harsono, I., Sutanto, H., & Sya’rani, R. (2024). Migration Patterns and Social Change in Kalimantan Region: A Quantitative Study of The Impact of Migration in Changing Social and Economic Structures. Sciences du Nord Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(01), 14-24.
Harsono, I., Sutanto, H., & Sya’rani, R. (2024). Migration Patterns and Social Change in Kalimantan Region: A Quantitative Study of The Impact of Migration in Changing Social and Economic Structures. Sciences du Nord Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(01), 14-24.
Izadi, K. (2007). Social and Economic Challenges Arising from Population Policies. Sociology Journal, 7(3), 59-73. (In Persian)
Jafari, S., Karami, M., & Soleimani, F. (2020). The Role of Executive Institutions in Improving Population Policies and Their Impact on Economic Growth. Iran Sustainable Development Quarterly, 15(2), 87-103. (In Persian)
Khodayari, M., Azimi, N., & Mehrabani, H. (2024). Impact of population control policies on fertility rates and family structure in post-revolutionary Iran. Journal of Population Studies, 58(3), 215-230.
Khorasani, M. (2016). The Impact of Population Policies on the Institution of Family. Iranian Social Studies Journal, 5(1), 50-66. (In Persian)
Khorasani, S. (2016). The Impact of Population Policies on the Institution of Family. Social Sciences Quarterly, 10(4), 55-72. (In Persian)
Kim, J. (2021). The economic impact of youth population on growth: Lessons from East Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 16(2), 295-312.
Klasen, S. (2020). Population, inequality, and economic development. Oxford University Press.
Lee, R. (2018). Population Aging and the Economic Implications for Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 89-114.
Lee, R. (2020). The demographic transition and its effects on economic growth and innovation. Journal of Population Economics, 33(4), 1001-1023.
Mahdavi, H. (2022). National power balance and its relation to demographic policies and social challenges in Iran. Journal of National Development Studies, 15(4), 95-112.
Maleki, R. (2015). Analyzing Opportunities and Challenges of Population Policies. Economic Research Journal, 15(4), 23-37. (In Persian)
Mason, A. (2021). Economic factors influencing fertility rates in developing countries: A comprehensive analysis. Journal of Population Studies, 34(2), 123-145
McDonald, P. (2019). Population policies and demographic change: The role of family planning. International Journal of Population Studies, 22(1), 45-62.
Moore, T., Johnson, L., Smith, A., & Lee, K. (2022). Youth Employment and Economic Growth: The Role of Skills and Innovation. Journal of Economic Development, 34(3), 45-67.
Mousavi, M. (2021). Demographic Policies in Iran: Shifting Trends and Their Impact on Population Growth. Iranian Journal of Population Studies, 24(2), 75-90.
Mousavi, N. (2023). Declining Birth Rates and Their Consequences on Human Resources and the Labor Market. Scientific Journal of Economics and Management, 15(2), 78-90. (In Persian)
Mousavi, N. (2023). Internal Migration and Socio-Economic Challenges in Iran: Examining Population Dynamics and Their Effects on Infrastructure. Iranian Social Studies Journal, 7(4), 99-113. (In Persian)
OECD. (2020). Ageing and employment policies: United States 2020. OECD Publishing.
OECD. (2020). The Youth Dividend: Harnessing the Potential of Young Populations for Economic Growth. OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 29.
OECD. (2020). Youth and Skills: Putting Education to Work. OECD Publishing.
Ogawa, N. (2020). Population Aging and Economic Growth in Japan: A Demographic Perspective. Asian Population Studies, 16(1), 27-44.
Pishgar, F., Alavi, Z., & Karami, R. (2022). The "Youthful Population" law: A new strategy for increasing birth rates in Iran. Journal of Public Policy, 32(2), 134-145.
Political, Social, and Economic Challenges of Population Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran (2022). Chalesh-haye Siyasi, Ejtemai, va Eqtesadi Keshesh-e Jam'iyat dar Jomhuri-ye Islami-ye Iran. Iranian Political Sociology, 21(5), 802-818. (In Persian)
Popenoe, D. (2020). The changing structure of the American family: Implications for social stability. Journal of Marriage and Family, 82(3), 500-515.
Reckford, M., & Spence, D. (2016). Urban Migration and Social Tensions: The Role of Policy in Managing Internal Migration. Journal of Migration Studies, 14(2), 87-104.
Rezaei, A. (2019). Supportive Family Policies and Their Impacts in Iran. Journal of Social Studies, 12(3), 100-115. (In Persian)
Rezvani, S.M. (2023). Challenges and Opportunities in Health Services Facing the Aging Population in Iran. Iranian Health Sciences Journal, 18(3), 45-59. (In Persian)
Sharifi, M. (2011). Effects of Population Policies on the Country's Gross Domestic Product. Economic Management Quarterly, 9(1), 42-54. (In Persian)
Smith, A., & Black, R. (2021). Demographic Transitions and Policy Reforms: Addressing the Challenges of Aging and Youth Populations. Journal of Population Policy, 12(2), 78-92.
Smith, J., & Johnson, L. (2020). The Impact of Population Policies on Social and Economic Changes in Developing Countries. Journal of Population Research, 37(4), 375-392.
Smith, T. W., & Johnson, A. (2020). The Impact of Demographic Changes on Economic Growth in Developing Countries. International Journal of Economic Research, 11(2), 45-68.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Statistical Center of Iran. (2022). Annual Report on Population and Population Changes in Iran. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran. (In Persian)
Todar, J. (2009). Economic Consequences of Population Policies in Iran. Economy and Planning Journal, 11(2), 88-101. (In Persian)
Todaro, M. P. (2020). Economic development. 12th ed. Pearson Education.
United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Wang, F., & Shen, M. (2021). China's Changing Population Policies: From One-Child to Three-Child Policy. Population Research, 40(1), 25-38.
Wilson, J. (2021). Healthcare and Education as Pillars of Sustainable Economic Growth. International Journal of Development Studies, 14(2), 45-60.
World Health Organization (WHO). (2021). World report on ageing and health. Geneva: World Health Organization.
World Health Organization. (2021). World report on ageing and health. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Zahavi, Y., Cohen, S., & Liu, R. (2021). Urbanization and Inequality: The Global Impact of Rapid Urban Growth. Journal of Urban Studies, 58(5), 1123-1145.
Zanjani, S. (2023). Social Challenges Arising from Population Policies in Iran. Iranian Social Sciences Journal, 9(1), 22-37. (In Persian)
Zhang, L. (2019). The One-Child Policy and Its Impact on China's Demography. Journal of Population Studies, 34(2), 167-179.
Zhang, W., Liu, H., & Chen, X. (2021). Cultural and Social Impacts of Population Policies in Various Countries. International Journal of Sociology, 45(2), 215-229.
