Assessing the Impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Cereal Production: Empirical Evidence from Iran
Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics ResearchAbolfazl Deylami 1 , Ramtin Joolaie 2
1 - Master of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
2 - Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
Keywords: cereal production, climate factors, carbon dioxide emissions, agricultural credits,
Abstract :
Introduction: Ensuring food security and maintaining and increasing food production in Iran, as one of the main goals of agricultural policies, are of great importance. However, climate change and non-climatic factors pose challenges to maintaining and increasing cereal production.
Materials and Methods: The present study evaluates the impact of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide emissions) and non-climatic factors (agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption) on cereal production in Iran using the ARDL approach by examining the time period of 1990-2020.
Findings: The ARDL Bound test, confirms a valid long-term relationship between the variables. The results of the study show that an increase in temperature and precipitation can lead to an increase in cereal production, while CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in cereal production. Moreover, agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption also have a positive impact on cereal production.
Conclusion: The policies designed to support the agricultural sector and attract investment in this area are of great importance. Increasing the allocation of credits to the agricultural sector, encouraging the expansion of cereal cultivation, and the use of improved seeds can lead to an increase in productivity and cereal production in Iran. Also, in order to adapt to climate change, agricultural communities need to be provided with information about its impacts and mitigation measures so that they can face these challenges and increase agricultural productivity by utilizing the positive potential created.
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1. Agbodji AE, Johnson AA. Agricultural Credit and Its Impact on the Productivity of Certain Cereals in Togo. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 2021;57(12):3320-3336.
doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1602038.
2. Ahmad S, Tariq M, Hussain T, Abbas Q, Elham H, Haider I, Li X. Does Chinese FDI, climate change, and CO2 emissions stimulate agricultural productivity? Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Sustainability. 2020;12(18):7485. doi: 10.3390/su12187485.
3. Ahsan F, Chandio AA, Fang W. Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan: Evidence from cointegration analysis. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management.2020;12(2):257-269.
doi: 10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2019-0020.
4. Akmal N, Rehman B, Ali A, Shah H. The impact of agriculture credit on growth in Pakistan. Asian J Agric Rural Dev. 2012;2. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.198003.
5. Amirnejad H, Asadpour kordi M. Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research. 2017; 9(35): 163-182. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20086407.1396.9.35.9.8.
6. Ammani A, Ja’Afaru A, Aliyu J, Arab A. Climate change and maize production: empirical evidence from Kaduna State, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Extension. 2012;16(1). doi: 10.4314/jae.v16i1.1.
7. Anetor F, Ogbechie C, Kelikume I, Ikpesu F. Credit supply and agricultural production in Nigeria: a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 2016;7(2). [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2735124].
8. Bouznit M, Pablo-Romero M. CO2 emissions and economic growth in Algeria. Journal of Energy Policy. 2016; 96:93-104. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.036.
9. Brown B, Llewellyn R, Nuberg I. Global learnings to inform the local adaptation of conservation agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa. Global Food Security. 2018; 17:213–220.
doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2018.05.002.
10. Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological). 1975;37(2):149-192. doi: 10.1111/j.2517-6161. 1975.tb01532.
11. CCKP (Climate Change Knowledge Portal). 2020; https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
12. Central Bank of Iran, 2021. https://tsd.cbi.ir/DisplayEn/Content.aspx.
13. Chai R, Ye X, Ma C, Wang Q, Tu R, Zhang L, Gao H. Greenhouse gas emissions from synthetic nitrogen manufacture and fertilization for main upland crops in China. Carbon Balance Manage. 2019; 14:20. [https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-019-0133-9].
14. Chandio AA, Gokmenoglu KK, Ahmad F. Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2021b; 28:51657–51673. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14358-8].
15. Chandio AA, Gokmenoglu KK, Ahmad M, Jiang Y. Towards sustainable rice production in Asia: the role of climatic factors. Earth Syst Environ. 2022a; 6:1–14. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00210-z].
16. Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Ahmad M, Adhikari S, Ul Ain Q. Assessing the impacts of climatic and technological factors on rice production: Empirical evidence from Nepal. Technol Soc. 2021c; 66:101607. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101607].
17. Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Akram W, Adeel S, Irfan M, Jan I. Addressing the effect of climate change in the framework of financial and technological development on cereal production in Pakistan. J Clean Prod.2021a;288:125637. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125637].
18. Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Amin A, Ahmad M, Akram W, Ahmad F. Climate change and food security of South Asia: fresh evidence from a policy perspective using novel empirical analysis. J Environ Plan Manag. 2022b;66(1):169-190. [https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2021.1980378].
19. Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rauf A, Ahmad F, Amin W, Shehzad K. Assessment of formal credit and climate change impact on agricultural production in Pakistan: a time series ARDL modeling approach. Sustainability.2020;12(13):5241. [https://doi.org/10.3390/su1213524].
20. Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A. Credit margin of investment in the agricultural sector and credit fungibility: the case of smallholders of district Shikarpur, Sindh, Pakistan. Financial Innovation. 2018; 4:27. (https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0109-x.)
21. Chhogyel N, Kumar L. Climate change and potential impacts on agriculture in Bhutan: A discussion of pertinent issues. Agric Food Secur. 2018; 7:79. [https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-018-0229-6].
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