ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیابوالفضل دیلمی 1 , رامتین جولایی 2
1 - فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: تولید غلات, عوامل اقلیمی, انتشار دی¬اکسید کربن, اعتبارات کشاورزی,
ملخص المقالة :
مقدمه و هدف: تولید و مصرف غلات به صورت پایدار، انعطاف‌پذیری و استقلال بیشتری را در تأمین امنیت غذایی فراهم می‌کند. از این رو، توجه به توسعه کشاورزی در زمینه تولید غلات به منظور تأمین نیازهای غذایی جوامع بسیار ضروری است. با این حال، تغییرات اقلیمی و عوامل غیر اقلیمی، چالش‌هایی را برای حفظ و افزایش تولید غلات ایجاد کرده‌اند.
مواد و روشها: تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از روش ARDL و با بررسی دوره زمانی 2020-1990، به ارزیابی تأثیر عوامل اقلیمی (دما، بارش و انتشار دیاکسید کربن) و غیر اقلیمی (اعتبارات بخش کشاورزی، سطح زیر کشت غلات و مصرف کودهای شیمیایی) بر تولید غلات در ایران پرداخته است.
یافته ها: رویکرد آزمونهای کرانههای ARDL یک رابطه همانباشتگی بلندمدت معتبر بین متغیرها را تأیید کردند. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که افزایش دما و بارش میتواند باعث افزایش تولید غلات شود، در حالی که انتشار CO2 باعث کاهش تولید غلات می‌گردد. همچنین، اعتبارات بخش کشاورزی، سطح زیر کشت غلات و مصرف کودهای شیمیایی نیز تأثیر مثبتی بر تولید غلات دارند.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: سیاست‌گذاری‌هایی که به منظور حمایت از بخش کشاورزی و جذب سرمایه در این حوزه طراحی می‌شوند، از اهمیت بالایی برخوردارند و افزایش اعتبارات تخصیص یافته به بخش کشاورزی و تشویق به گسترش سطح زیر کشت غلات میتواند به افزایش تولید غلات در ایران منجر شود. همچنین، جهت سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی، باید به جوامع کشاورز اطلاعاتی در مورد تأثیرات این تغییرات و راهکارهای مقابله با آن‌ها ارائه شود تا بتوانند با این چالش مواجه شوند.
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doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1602038.
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3. Ahsan F, Chandio AA, Fang W. Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan: Evidence from cointegration analysis. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management.2020;12(2):257-269.
doi: 10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2019-0020.
4. Akmal N, Rehman B, Ali A, Shah H. The impact of agriculture credit on growth in Pakistan. Asian J Agric Rural Dev. 2012;2. doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.198003.
5. Amirnejad H, Asadpour kordi M. Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research. 2017; 9(35): 163-182. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20086407.1396.9.35.9.8.
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