Management of the risk of cardiovascular disease with the help of mathematical models

Subject Areas : Behavioral Studies in Management

samar  shetaban ¹ (PhD in industrial engineering and university lecturer, Tehran, Iran.)
mirmehdi  esfehani ² (Professor, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran)
sahar  shetaban ³ (Graduated with PhD in Cultural Affairs Management and Planning, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2022-12-01 Accepted : 2022-12-12 Published : 2023-06-22

Keywords: Heart disease, Risk Estimation, Markov Decision Processes, Cardiovascular Disease Screening,

Abstract :

Today, air pollution, smoking, use of fatty and ready-made foods, etc., have exacerbated heart disease. For this purpose, controlling the risk of such diseases can prevent or reduce their incidence. The present study aimed at using Markov decision processes (MDP) to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease. For this purpose, model inputs were first determined using a validated micro-simulation model for screening cardiovascular disease developed at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran using genetic algorithm. The model input factors were then defined accordingly and using these inputs, three risk estimation models were identified. The results of these models support World Health Organization guidelines that provide medicine with high discount to patients with high expected Life Years. Finally, conflicts are usually observed in the risk models determining the likelihood of complications. Hence, to develop Markov Decision Processes methodology, policies should be adopted that work well despite the difference between the risk model and the actual risk.