شبیه سازی و مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب تحت سناریوی آب مجازی مطالعه موردی: حوضه هیرمند ایران

Subject Areas : Strategic planning

علی سردار شهرکی ¹ , جواد شهرکی ² , سید آرمان هاشمی منفرد ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

Received: 2016-02-21 Accepted : 2017-01-01 Published : 2019-03-01

Keywords: شبیه سازی, بخش کشاورزی, مدیریت منابع آب, آب مجازی, حوضه هیرمند,

Abstract :

حوضه هیرمند به دلیل وجود خشکسالی، هم­چنین رشد روز افزون مصارف آب و رقابت بخش­های مختلف، وارد مرحله بحرانی آب شده است، این خطر در سال­های آتی تشدیدتر خواهد شد. بنابراین برای مقابله با آن می بایست نسبت به انواع مصرف آب با حساسیت بیشتری برخورد کرد. از جمله این مصارف، آب مجازی می­باشد. در پژوهش حاضر، تقاضای آب مجازی محصولات کشاورزی منطقه سیستان در سال زراعی 93-1392 محاسبه و با استفاده از مدل WEAP  اثرات اجرای این سناریو از سال 2015 تا 2030 بر منابع و مصارف آب پیش­بینی گردید. طبق نتایج محصولات گوجه­فرنگی و یونجه با این­که نیازآبی بالایی داشتند، اما به سبب عملکرد بالای تولید، تقاضای آب مجازی کمتری داشته­اند، هم­چنین بیشترین نیاز آب مجازی برای دو محصول گندم و جو بدست آمد. نتایج مدل WEAP نشان داد که در سناریوی آب مجازی، سالیانه به طور میانگین مقدار تقاضای آب 61 درصد برای کارایی خالص و 17 درصد برای کارایی به حالت فعلی کمتر شده است. تقاضای تأمین نشده حدود 383 میلیون متر مکعب کاهش خواهد یافت. بنابراین با توجه به شرایط خشکسالی حاکم بر منطقه، اجرای این سناریو در جهت حفظ منابع آب بسیار مناسب خواهد بود، از این­رو پیشنهاد می شود که طرح­های توسعه کشاورزی در منطقه سیستان با توجه به این مفهوم آب مجازی، برنامه­ریزی و سرمایه­گذاری شوند.

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