ارزيابي اثر تغيير کاربري اراضي بر سيل‌خيزي با رويکرد آينده‌پژوهي در حوزه آبخيز چالوس
محورهای موضوعی : آبخیزداری و استحصال آب
ایمان فاضلی ثانی
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بهارک معتمدوزیری
2
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علیرضا مقدم نیا
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شعبانعلی غلامی
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1 - دانشجوي دکتري گروه مهندسي طبيعت، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
2 - دانشيار گروه مهندسي طبيعت، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
3 - استاد گروه احياي مناطق خشک و کوهستاني، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ايران.
4 - استاديار گروه مهندسي طبيعت، واحد نور، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، نور، ايران.
کلید واژه: سسيلاب, رفتار هيدرولوژيک, کاربري اراضي, شبيه‌سازي,
چکیده مقاله :
زمينه و هدف: تغييرکاربري اراضي و توسعه بي‌رويه شهرها و روستاها در سطح حوزه‌هاي آبخيز و يا حاشيه رودخانه‌ها و مسيل‌ها يکي از مهم‌ترين علل افزايش خسارات سيلاب محسوب مي‌شود. در همين راستا در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از تصاوير ماهواره‌اي و مدل هيدرولوژيکي HEC_HMS به بررسي ميزان تاثير تغيير کاربري اراضي بر سيلاب حوزه آبخيز چالوس پرداخته شد.
روش پژوهش: براي تهيه نقشه پوشش/کاربري اراضي آبخيز چالوس از تصاوير ماهواره لندست استفاده شد و چهار طبقه کاربري (اراضي کشاورزي، زمين هاي مرتفع وکوهستاني، جنگل و مرتع، مناطق مسکوني و شهري) در نظر گرفته شد. پس از تعيين نمونههاي تعليمي از طبقهبندي نظارت‌شده با الگوريتم حداکثر احتمال براي تهيه نقشه‌هاي پوشش/کاربري اراضي حوزه آبخيز چالوس استفاده شد. در پژوهش حاضر مدل‌سازي تغييرات کاربري اراضي در دو بازه زماني 1993 تا 2015 (دورة زماني 22 ساله) و 2015 تا 2021 (دورة زماني 7 ساله) و 2021 تا 2025 و 2030 با استفاده از مدل زنجيره مارکوف و تلفيق آن با اتوماتاي سلولي به‌منظور آشکارسازي انجام شد. سپس ابتدا روند تغييرات CN برحسب تغيير مساحت کاربريها براي سالهاي 2025، 2030 محاسبه شد و مدل HEC-HMS براي سه رويداد 16/08/85، 26/08/90، 22/12/92 و 23/12/92 برحسب تغيير مقدار CN با در نظر گرفتن مقدار ثابت براي ساير عوامل براي سالهاي ذکر شده اجرا شد.
يافته‌ها: يافته‌هاي پژوهش نشان داد در سال 2025 دبي پيک و حجم سيلاب به ترتيب 9/45 و 8/50 درصد نسبت به سال 2006 افزايش يافته است. در سال 2030 تغييرات افزايش دبي پيک و حجم سيلاب نسبت به سال 2006 با توجه به تغييرات CN مشهودتر بوده و به ترتيب 55/50 و 2/60 درصد افزايش يافته است. دبي پيک و حجم سيلاب در سالهاي 2025 و 2030 نسبت به سال 2013 بر اثر تغيير کاربري اراضي تغييرات محسوسي خواهد داشت به طوريکه در سال 2030 دبي پيک 5/54 درصد و حجم سيلاب 47 درصد نسبت به سال 2013 افزايش خواهد داشت.
نتيجه‌گيري: با توجه به اينکه تغيير کاربري اراضي در حوزه آبخيز چالوس تاثير زيادي دارد لذا مديريت آن براي دوره‌هاي آتي نياز به ديدگاهي جامع و آينده‌نگر دارد.
Background and Aim: Land use change and excessive development of cities and villages at the level of watersheds or along rivers and canals is one of the most important causes of flood damage. In this regard, in the present study, using satellite images and the HEC_HMS hydrological model, the impact of land use change on the flood of the Chalus watershed was investigated.
Method: Landsat satellite images were used to prepare the land cover/use map of the Chalus watershed and four land use classes (agricultural land, high and mountainous land, forest and pasture, residential and urban areas) were considered. After determining educational samples, supervised classification with a maximum likelihood algorithm was used to prepare land cover/use maps of the Chalus watershed. In the current research, modeling of land use changes in two time periods 1993 to 2015 (22-year period) and 2015 to 2021 (7-year period) and 2021 to 2025 and 2030 using the Markov chain model and combining it with cellular automata to reveal is Done. Then, first, the trend of CN changes was calculated according to the change in land use area for the years 2025, 2030, and the HEC-HMS model for three events according to the change of CN value was implemented by considering the constant value for other factors for the mentioned years.
Results: The findings of the research showed that in 2025, peak discharge and flood volume have increased by 45.9% and 50.8%, respectively, compared to 2006. In 2030, the changes in peak discharge and flood volume increase compared to 2006 are more evident due to the changes in CN and have increased by 50.55 and 60.2%, respectively. Peak discharge and flood volume in 2025 and 2030 compared to 2013 will have significant changes due to land use change, so in 2030 peak discharge will increase by 54.5% and flood volume will increase by 47% compared to 2013.
Conclusion: Considering that the change in land use in the Chalus watershed has a great impact, its management for the future requires a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective.
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